BURMA: UPDATE ON POST-NARGIS EFFORTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000929 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DEPT PASS TO USAID, BANGKOK FOR USAID E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018 TAGS: EAID ECON PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: BURMA: UPDATE ON POST-NARGIS EFFORTS REF: RANGOON 883 RANGOON 00000929 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) Subject: Update on Post-Nargis Efforts in Burma Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Seven months after Cyclone Nargis, the UN, most international donors, and NGOs are shifting their focus in the Delta from relief and early recovery to longer-term recovery efforts. The Tripartite Core Group (TCG) will soon formally launch the Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan (PONREPP),which will detail the recovery needs for Cyclone-affected areas over the next three years. The Government of Burma (GOB) is considering proposals to extend the mandate of the TCG, currently set to expire in July 2009, to cover the PONREPP implementation period. Donors and UN officials have called for the PONREPP to include policy dialogue with the GOB in hopes of spurring reform, particularly in the agriculture and health sectors. There is also discussion of a pooled "trust fund" approach, something the USG generally disfavors. In addition to the U.S. continuing to provide recovery assistance in the Delta, the U.S. should consider a portion of funding or in-kind technical assistance to the TCG to support PONREPP; this would ensure we have a seat at the table, allowing us to help shape internal donor deliberations not only on assistance decisions, but also on any discussions of policy engagement with the GOB. End summary. Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan (PONREPP) -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The TCG (comprised of ASEAN, the UN, and the GOB) began to formulate the PONREPP soon after the May 2008 ASEAN-UN International Pledging Conference. This three-year multi-sectoral plan is intended to be a broad strategic document outlining key areas of need for the recovery of the Cyclone-affected Delta from January 2009-December 2011. Drafted with significant input from donors and international NGOs operating in the Delta, the PONREPP will identify desired outcomes and assistance requirements in the following sectors: livelihoods; shelter; education and training; environment; protection and vulnerable groups; health; water; sanitation and hygiene; and disaster risk reduction. ¶3. (C) The PONREPP is seen as the logical follow-on to the Post-Nargis Joint Assessment (PONJA),the initial needs assessment prepared by the TCG in July 2008. The PONREPP will be informed by a series of "periodic reviews" -- recurring mini-assessments on progress against the PONJA -- the first of which is due in the next few weeks. The TCG now expects to complete the PONREPP, originally scheduled for release during the now-postponed ASEAN-UN Summit, by mid-January, and according to UN Resident Coordinator (RC) Bishow Parajuli, it may be launched at a meeting in Geneva. ¶4. (C) The only chapter of the PONREPP on which the TCG has briefed donors is Chapter 5: "Aid Effectiveness and the Infrastructure of AID Coordination." The chapter outlines the possible future role of the TCG and discusses creation of new structures for aid coordination. The chapter also includes a proposal to create a multi-donor "recovery fund" for the Delta along the lines of the Three Diseases Fund (3DF). The UN is sending a technical expert to Rangoon to assess possible funding mechanisms. (Note: In addition to the 3DF, an education trust fund already exists for use by UNICEF, and the European Commission is in the process of creating a multi-donor trust fund for country-wide livelihood and food security programs. UNDP representatives have voiced concern that competing donor priorities and trust funds may complicate PONREPP funding prospects. End note.) No decisions have been made to date about the PONREPP's price tag, but we expect the appeal to run in the hundreds of millions of dollars. RANGOON 00000929 002.2 OF 003 High-Level Roundtable on Post-Nargis Efforts -------------- ¶5. (C) A "High-Level Roundtable on Post-Nargis Joint Relief and Recovery Efforts in Myanmar" was held November 26 in Rangoon. Deputy FM and TCG Chair Kyaw Thu lauded the TCG, observing that it serves as a platform for "engagement and transparency" between the GOB and the international community." He detailed a laundry list of GOB contributions to relief efforts in the Delta, which he said have totaled 138.63 billion kyats (approximately USD 111 million). In opening remarks, UN RC Parajuli noted that the TCG is a unique partnership and has been looked to as a model to be replicated outside the Delta. ¶6. (C) During the plenary session, Parajuli, as well as the UK and Australian Ambassadors, pushed for the TCG to include a policy dialogue with the GOB as part of its efforts to promote long-term recovery in the Delta. The UK Ambassador noted that political developments, including the convictions and harsh sentences handed down to political activists, could inhibit future funding for proposed recovery programs. Several donors, including Australia, the UK, and Singapore, voiced their desire to see GOB commitments to recover, both financial and material, spelled out clearly and publicly. Broad Agreement on TCG Extension; Possible Expansion -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Nearly all donors in Rangoon agree that the mandate of the TCG should be extended in time, ideally until the end of the PONREPP implementation in 2011. The TCG has concentrated on logistical issues such as visas, travel permits, and access to project sites. Moving forward, most donors would like to see the TCG mandate, even if restricted to the Delta, be broadened to create more opportunities for policy discussions with/between donors, the UN, and the GOB. It is not clear at this stage how such policy talks would proceed. An even more ambitious plan would be to expand the TCG geographically to cover areas beyond the Delta. However, geographic expansion would almost certainly face significant GOB opposition, particularly with elections planned in 2010. As a result some donors, like the Singaporeans, argue for a focus on extension as the most realistic option. ¶8. (C) When some weeks ago the Charge raised both TCG extension and geographic expansion with DFM Kyaw Thu; he expressed personal willingness to implement such moves but said he could not propose it himself to the regime's senior leadership, who clearly would have to make such a call. During the High-Level Roundtable, Kyaw Thu publicly stated that if the TCG mandate is expanded, he has no doubt participants would see similar success beyond the Delta. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Most donors, including the UK, Australia, and the EC, are preparing to provide significant funding for long-term recovery in the Delta. They plan to do so in accordance with the PONREPP framework and, at least in some cases, by contributing to the associated multilateral trust funds. From Post's perspective, the PONREPP process is a serious and useful effort to identify genuine recovery needs in the Delta and to promote enhanced donor coordination. Assuming the report has merit, it should serve as an important technical resource to guide any future U.S. assistance to the Delta. ¶10. (C) The PONREPP process could also provide an opportunity to build on the TCG's success and facilitate constructive and focused engagement between donors and the GOB -- if the regime actually fully invests in the process as a stakeholder and participant. A prerequisite will be a GOB agreement to extend the TCG through the PONREPP implementation period as a necessary oversight and coordination mechanism. The chances for such an extension are decent, in part so the regime will have a deliverable at RANGOON 00000929 003.2 OF 003 the ASEAN Summit. A geographic expansion seems much less likely. ¶11. (C) We note that the USG does not generally contribute to multi-donor trust funds like the proposed "recovery fund" under the PONREPP. A useful alternative would be for Washington to consider some funding or in-kind technical assistance to support the ASEAN role in the aid coordination mechanism, perhaps by funding one or more of the ASEAN technical positions if the TCG is extended. Doing so would signal USG support for the PONREPP process. More importantly, it would give us a seat at the table with other donors, which could be particularly useful as donors and the UN deliberate whether, and how, to make use of the TCG for a policy dialogue with the GOB. DINGER