UK AMBASSADOR ADVOCATES CONTINUED UN AND GAMBARI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000795

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: UK AMBASSADOR ADVOCATES CONTINUED UN AND GAMBARI
ENGAGEMENT IN BURMA

Classified By: DCM Tom Vajda for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

UK,s View: Gambari Better than a Vacuum
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1. (C) In an October 8 call on Charge, British Ambassador
Mark Canning expressed the UK,s view that UN Special
Representative for Burma Gambari should be allowed to
continue in his current role as a preferred alternative to
&six months of drift8 in the UN good offices mission.
Canning said the UK shares the negative U.S. assessment of
Gambari, particularly his penchant to hype the positive and
focus on tertiary issues, and also recognizes the problems
Gambari,s endless optimism creates when the Chinese and
others latch onto his upbeat language. Nevertheless, the UK
prefers that Gambari conclude his current contract through
December and allow a &managed transition8 to his
replacement. A breakdown or lengthy gap in the good offices
mission would be particularly unfortunate in the coming
months, Canning added, since the GOB is expected to make a
number of decisions, including promulgating necessary laws,
related to the 2010 parliamentary elections. In effect,
Canning proposed, Gambari is better than nothing. Canning
indicated that the UK has shared its views regarding Gambari
with the SYG.

Possible Indonesian Successor
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2. (C) According to Canning, SYG Ban indicated to the UK a
couple of weeks ago that he is considering asking an
Indonesian to serve as the next Special Representative.
Canning cited two possibilities: former Foreign Minister
Alatas and Agus Widjojo.

Prepping for a Possible Ban Visit
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3. (C) Canning noted that he was aware there has been
considerable discussion in Washington about Gambari,s
future. He said the UK understands the U.S. has come down
favoring Gambari,s termination and asked the Charge for
details. Charge reported in broad terms the U.S. perspective
about Gambari, as well as U.S. views on a possible visit to
Burma by SYG Ban. Canning stressed that the UK is on the
same page as the U.S. on a Ban visit, agreeing on the need
for &deliverables8 in advance. In Canning,s view, the
focus should be on the release of political prisoners, a
concrete and verifiable step the regime could undertake in
the near term and one consistent with the October 2007 UNSC
Presidential Statement. The UK recognizes Gambari cannot be
counted on to secure the necessary GOB commitment, however,
and believes the SYG should send a sherpa ) perhaps his
chief of staff ) to come to Burma alone or with Gambari to
get the job done.


4. (C) In a separate meeting October 8, Burmese Deputy
Foreign Minister Kyaw Thu told Charge that Foreign Minister
Nyan Win had met with both Gambari and Ban during UNGA in New
York. Kyaw Thu said he had not received a detailed readout,
but said Ban is considering visiting Burma either before or
after the ASEAN Summit in Bangkok in December. Kyaw Thu
confirmed Gambari has requested to visit Burma before that
time.

Comment
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5. (C) The UK Ambassador called on the Charge on his own
(not on instructions) based on Foreign Office reporting he,d
seen of the U.S. decision on Gambari (as described in
reftel). Canning,s intent was to exchange views and get a
better sense of the U.S. position, recognizing, as did we,
that policy coordination is taking place elsewhere. Canning
is among the more astute observers of the local scene here,
and is of the view that the GOB is not completely immune to
international perceptions and pressure. He cited two recent

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examples: the GOB,s release of a handful of prominent
political prisoners on the eve of UNGA, and its scramble to
set up a meeting between Gambari and Prime Minister Thein
Sein during Gambari,s last visit once it became apparent
Aung San Suu Kyi would not meet with him. From Canning,s
perspective, a Ban visit, under the right circumstances,
ratchets up the pressure on the regime. He believes even
such a planned visit,s cancellation, if the GOB reneges on
its end of the bargain, would serve a useful tactical purpose
in the UN context.
DINGER