GAMBARI VISIT CONCLUDES WITH NO ASSK MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000679 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: GAMBARI VISIT CONCLUDES WITH NO ASSK MEETING REF: RANGOON 678 RANGOON 00000679 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM Tom Vajda for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari departed Burma August 23rd without meeting Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK). In an outbrief for the Diplomatic Corps, he expressed his disappointment that that ASSK had declined to see him and said he did not know her reason for doing so. Gambari reported he had a second meeting with the NLD Uncles and had asked the GOB to allow them to meet privately with ASSK. He claimed to have made "some traction" on political issues in his meetings with Burmese officials, which included Prime Minister Thein Sein, but declined to elaborate further until he briefed UNSYG Ban Ki Moon. Gambari said he intended to visit Burma again but admitted that if future visits failed to yield tangible results, it would be difficult for UNSYG Ban to come to Burma later in the year as planned. End Summary. ASSK REFUSES TO MEET GAMBARI -------------- ¶2. (C) During an August 23 briefing for the Diplomatic Corps immediately prior to his departure from Burma, Gambari acknowledged he had not met with ASSK, said the GOB had not been the obstacle, and confirmed his assistants had visited her house in an attempt to arrange the meeting and pass her a letter from him. According to one of the assistants, ASSK had not come out of the house and no one was let into the compound. Gambari reported he did not know why ASSK had declined to meet with him, and noted that he had met with her on all of his five previous visits to Burma (and even twice each during two of those visits). He noted that even though she had been frustrated with the GOB's lack of progress before, it had not stopped her from meeting him in the past. Gambari said it was a "pity" that she did not meet with him, because the dialogue process could not be one-sided. ¶3. (U) State-run MRTV aired footage Saturday of Gambari's assistants outside ASSK's compound August 23 attempting to deliver a letter from him requesting a meeting. MFA protocol officials used a megaphone to inform ASSK that Gambari was trying to contact her. According to the footage, Gambari's assistants waited outside the gate in vain for approximately 30 minutes before departing. According to MRTV, Gambari's letter was left at the gate. This was Gambari's second attempt to meet with ASSK, who did not show up for a scheduled meeting on August 20 (Ref A). Note: Video footage is available on YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/user/umyintlwin. ¶4. (C) NLD spokesperson Han Thar Myint told us the NLD's position was that ASSK had refused to see Gambari because she was unhappy with the way he was conducting his mission -- specifically that he was allowing the SPDC to control his itinerary and that his visits had yet to yield any tangible results. It is not clear on what basis the NLD reached this conclusion. NLD spokesperson Nyan Win confirmed for us that Gambari had met with the NLD Uncles a second time on August 22, following his brief 20-minute session with them on August ¶20. According to Nyan Win, the NLD and Gambari both had agreed not to divulge the results of that 90-minute meeting because they had not finished the discussion. GAMBARI CLAIMS "SOME TRACTION" WITH GOB -------------- ¶5. (C) During the diplomatic briefing, Gambari characterized his visit as more positive than his previous visit (March 2008) because he had met with Prime Minister Thein Sein (for one hour),his proposals had not been "publicly repudiated," and the GOB had invited him back for repeat visits. Gambari claimed to have gained "some RANGOON 00000679 002.2 OF 002 traction" with the GOB on his stated goals, which included the release of ASSK and other political prisoners and establishment of a genuine reconciliation process, but refused twice to elaborate, saying he had to brief the UNSYG before commenting further. Nonetheless, Gambari lamented that he had not been granted a meeting with Senior General Than Shwe for the third visit in a row, saying this did not leave a positive impression. Gambari said he was glad that Burmese PM Thein Sein had traveled from Nay Pyi Taw to meet with him, and he said Thein Sein would be delivering a letter on his behalf to Than Shwe. ¶6. (C) Gambari said he had requested that the GOB permit a private meeting for ASSK with the NLD Central Executive Committee (aka the Uncles),a private meeting between ASSK and Liaison Minister Aung Kyi, and a meeting including ASSK, Aung Kyi, and the Uncles. Gambari said he planned to return to Burma again before UNSYG Ban's proposed December visit but admitted that if there were no "encouraging signs," it would be difficult for the SYG to make the trip. UN STAFF LOSING CONFIDENCE IN GAMBARI -------------- ¶7. (C) According to WFP Country Director Chris Kaye (protect),although Gambari briefed UN Country Team members at the outset of his visit, he did not meet with them again prior to his departure. An August 23 morning meeting with the UN Country Team had been cancelled by Gambari because he thought he might be meeting ASSK. Comparing this visit to past visits, Kaye added that local UN staff had had even less control of Gambari's schedule this time. According to Kaye, Gambari had not done a good job of articulating the purpose of his visit to locally-based UN staff and some were worried that the failure of his mission could hamper UN efforts in Burma. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Gambari had virtually nothing to show for his visit here. Even his face-saving claim that PM Thein Sein had come from Nay Pyi Taw specifically to see him is suspect, as the PM more likely traveled to Rangoon to greet the Thai Foreign Minister, in town to attend the August 24 celebration of the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Burma and Thailand. Gambari acknowledged that the UN good offices process had thus far delivered few concrete results, a pattern that would have to change for UNSYG to travel here. He also gamely cited the window of opportunity for the regime to take some positive steps prior to his arrival in New York in about one week. We are curious to see what "traction" he has made with the GOB, given that his visits have yielded no results and that ASSK has apparently lost confidence in his mission. One concern is that the regime may seek to blame ASSK for the failure of Gambari's mission, when in fact her decision seems simply to reflect the reality of its limits. VAJDA