THE SKY IS FALLING ON BURMA,S AVIATION INDUSTRY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000664 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, EEB/TRA PACOM FOR FPA TREASURY FOR OASIA, OFAC E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2018 TAGS: ECON PREL PGOV EAIR BM SUBJECT: THE SKY IS FALLING ON BURMA,S AVIATION INDUSTRY REF: A. RANGOON 307 ¶B. RANGOON 167 ¶C. 07 RANGOON 1102 ¶D. 07 RANGOON 1098 RANGOON 00000664 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: CDA Tom Vajda for Reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Burma's five domestic and international airlines continue to struggle, as a 50 percent reduction in tourism levels since 2007 and skyrocketing fuel costs have made it harder for them to turn a profit. In the past three months, Burmese airlines have significantly reduced domestic flight frequency and two airlines - Air Bagan and Air Mandalay - halted all international service. Air Bagan and Yangon Airways have laid off staff and reduced work hours as cost-saving measures. While airlines are publicly optimistic that the sector will rebound with the start of tourism season in October, company officials admit privately that rising fuel prices and reduced tourism will require additional downsizing. End Summary. Burma's Decrepit Aviation Industry -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Although Burma was the aviation hub of Southeast Asia fifty years ago, local airlines now struggle to service the domestic and international markets. Burma has four domestic airlines - flag-carrier Myanmar Airways; Air Bagan, owned by regime crony Tay Za; Air Mandalay, a joint venture between the GOB, the Government of Singapore, and Malaysian-owned Premier Airlines; and Yangon Airways, a joint venture between the GOB and Krong-Sombat Company of Thailand. All four companies are flailing economically, and three have known maintenance problems (Ref C). ¶3. (SBU) Air Bagan, with is fleet of five operational planes, dominates the domestic market with a 40 percent market share. Air Mandalay holds 25 percent of the market, flying three planes primarily to tourist destinations. Myanmar Airways and Yangon Airways combined service less than 10 percent of the market. Burma's domestic airlines report higher profits during tourist season (November-March),and traditionally reduce flight frequency during the monsoon season (June-October) to cut costs. ¶4. (C) Burma also has a fledgling international aviation sector. Two domestic airlines, Air Bagan and Air Mandalay, also offer international service to Thailand. Myanmar 
Airways International (MAI),a joint venture between the GOB and Singapore-owned Regent Air, is Burma's third international carrier, offering scheduled flights to Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia. Upon demand, Air Bagan will charter flights to Seoul and Beijing. Despite having lower prices, these airlines cannot compete with foreign carriers Thai Airways or Silk Air in terms of quality, reliability, or service. Air Bagan and MAI have had significant maintenance problems in the past; while MAI has addressed concerns by leasing newer planes and renegotiating maintenance contracts, Air Bagan has blamed U.S. sanctions for its inability to purchase spare parts (Ref D). Lack of Tourists Hurting Domestic Airlines -------------- ¶5. (C) According to aviation insiders, the 50 percent decline in tourists to Burma thus far in 2008, due largely to the September 2007 government crackdown and Cyclone Nargis, significantly hurt the domestic aviation sector. Myanmar Airways, Yangon Airways, Air Mandalay, and Air Bagan recently RANGOON 00000664 002.2 OF 003 suspended flights, citing reduced passenger traffic. Mandalay Managing Director Kuma Silva told us he was pessimistic the airline industry could recover from a year or more of sustained financial loss. According to Silva, airlines, which depend on tourism season revenues to subsidize losses during monsoon season, had yet to recoup shortfalls associated with last year's decline in tourism. The further drop in 2008 tourism has put increasing financial pressure on domestic airlines; they thus opted to reduce flight frequency in April and May (two months earlier than usual monsoon-season cutback in flights),as a cost-saving measure, Silva said. ¶6. (C) In 2008, domestic airlines reduced the number and frequency of flights by 40 percent, Air Bagan General Manager U Zaw Win told us. While Air Bagan advertised that it now flew to 14 rather than 17 destinations, U Zaw Win admitted that Air Bagan serviced only two destinations daily, flew to the other 12 destinations once or twice a week, and regularly canceled flights if less than 40 percent of seats are sold. In April, Air Mandalay grounded one of its planes due to lack of passengers, and reduced service from ten to five destinations. Yangon Airways and Myanmar Airways had also cut flights, with the former servicing two destinations instead of six and the latter flying to seven locations rather than eleven, Silva told us (Ref C). ¶7. (C) Burma's domestic aviation industry historically does not turn a profit, and the airlines' accumulated debt has started to catch up with them. According to Air Mandalay General Manager Kuma Silva, in 2007, Air Mandalay was the only airline to break even financially; Myanmar Airways and Yangon Airways each received an injection of cash from the government, and Air Bagan's owner Tay Za subsidized his airline with profits from his other businesses. According to Silva, however, 2008 had been the first year the airlines had laid off employees. Yangon Airways cut its staff by 30 people. Air Bagan, despite Tay Za's deep pockets, fired 41 employees and reduced the work hours of more than 50 others. Air Mandalay had yet to dismiss staff, although Silva hinted that if the tourism situation did not improve, all airlines would have to downsize. Fuel Prices, Lack of Tourists Affect International Market -------------- ¶8. (C) MAI Managing Director Aung Gyi noted that while Burma's worsening economy and reduced tourism were factors in the airlines' decisions to suspend flights, skyrocketing fuel costs, up more than 35 percent since last year, was the real reason. Although Burma heavily subsidizes jet fuel for domestic airlines, charging $3.00 a gallon, international airlines must pay substantially higher prices. According to Silva, the GOB set jet fuel prices for international carriers at $4.80 a gallon, while the airports in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur charged $3.85 and $3.95 a gallon, respectively. MAI often refueled overseas to save money, but Air Mandalay did not have a contract to do so, he noted. Tay Za's Air Bagan, benefiting from his relationship with the senior generals, refueled its planes in Rangoon, but paid a special price of $2.50 a gallon, Aung Gyi lamented. The higher fuel prices in Rangoon further cut into the international airlines' ability to make a profit. ¶9. (C) U Zaw Win noted that due to higher fuel prices, Air Bagan must carry a passenger load of 90 percent on international flights to break even. Since the average Air Bagan flight to Bangkok was only 40 percent full, the airline RANGOON 00000664 003.2 OF 003 was hemorrhaging money and had thus decided to suspend flights temporarily. Aung Gyi told us that MAI, which flew a MD-82 until July 28, paid up to $500,000 a month in fuel costs. By limiting flights to three days a week, MAI saved up to $200,000 a month in fuel costs. MAI further cut costs by severing its MD-82 lease at the end of July, signing a new lease with NOK Airlines for a Boeing 737. The airline was now saving roughly $1,000 a month in lease costs and another $60,000 in fuel costs, he declared. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) As tourists shy away from Burma and the price of fuel rises, Burma's decrepit airline industry will continue to falter financially. Even Air Bagan, which depends on Tay Za's deep pockets and regime connections to survive, has felt the pinch, laying off staff and suspending its international operations. There is little reason to expect Burma's airlines will see a turnaround in their fortunes anytime soon. VAJDA