BURMA: QUIET THUS FAR IN ADVANCE OF 8/8/88

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000635 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: BURMA: QUIET THUS FAR IN ADVANCE OF 8/8/88 ANNIVERSARY Classified By: Pol Officer Sean O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) GOB authorities have visibly increased security in Rangoon and Mandalay in the lead-up to Friday's 20th anniversary of the 8/8/88 crackdown on pro-democracy protests, and we have issued a warden message to the American Community. However, our contacts report they see no evidence opposition activists are planning any significant protests or other commemorations of the event. The NLD, 88 Generation Students, and human rights activists told us they had decided to forego events marking the anniversary. SECURITY PRESENCE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Embassy officers and staff observed a heightened security presence throughout Rangoon beginning August 1. Armed riot police and plainclothes security forces were stationed at key points throughout the city, including near Sule Pagoda in downtown, several major hotels, and the State Guest House near the U.S. Embassy. Contacts in Mandalay also reported increased security although residents of Mawlamyaing, Mon State and Taunggot, Rakhine State told us they did not see any increased police or military presence in those cities. ¶3. (C) RSO's police contacts informed us the increased security in Rangoon was due to the visit of UN Special Rapporteur Ojea Quintana and a number of other VIP visitors expected this week, including the Kuwaiti PM and several high-level GOB officials. They did not comment as to whether the heightened security was also in anticipation of this Friday's anniversary of the 8/8/88 crackdown on pro-democracy protests. OPPOSITION PLANS -------------- ¶4. (C) Leading 88 Generation Students (88GS) activist Toe Kyaw Hlaing informed us that, unlike last year, 88GS would not hold any ceremonies or demonstrations to mark the 20th anniversary of 8/8/88. The organization's leaders, including Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi, have been in jail since August 2007 and those who were still free were afraid to surface, he lamented. Toe Kyaw Hlaing informed us that, on the evening of August 5, authorities raided the family home of Tha Gyi, an 88GS activist who has been in hiding since September. While the police did not find Tha Gyi, Toe Kyaw Hlaing believed the raid was a sign the regime was trying to intimidate as many activists as possible before August 8. ¶5. (C) NLD youth activist Aye Tun told us the NLD had no plans to commemorate the 20th anniversary of 8/8/88. NLD Chairman U Aung Shwe had decided the party should refrain from any public demonstrations or commemorations of the event, Aye Tun said. Similarly, Aye Tun said he and his colleagues had agreed not to mark the event with public protests or ceremonies. NLD spokesman Nyan Win noted the NLD had never celebrated the anniversary of 8/8/88 and commented that the party's leaders did not believe the event concerned the NLD since the party was formed after the crackdown. ¶6. (C) Our contacts in the human rights community also reported no evidence opposition activists were planning any protests or other significant commemorations of 8/8/88. Human Rights Defenders and Promoters leader U Myint Aye said he had had heard of no planned protests and had no plans to stage any demonstrations themselves. U Myint Aye pointed out that HRDP maintains an extensive network of contacts throughout the country that they use to collect information, and he believed he would likely have heard in advance of plans to stage significant demonstrations. ¶7. (SBU) Exile media reported that opposition groups, RANGOON 00000635 002 OF 002 including Generation Wave, had begun a campaign to place posters and spray red paint on the walls of schools and other public places in Rangoon to commemorate the 8/8/88 anniversary. Toe Kyaw Hlaing told us he had spoken with one student who claimed to be part of the red paint campaign. However, based on his discussion with the student, Toe Kyaw Hlaing believed the movement was disorganized and estimated there were no more than 20 people in the whole country participating in it. Human rights activist Ko Mg Mg Lay said he saw the words "don't forget 8888" spray painted on one building at Rangoon East University, but noted the words were washed off within an hour. None of our other contacts in the media, opposition or human rights communities have seen signs of such a campaign. WARDEN MESSAGE -------------- ¶8. (U) The Embassy issued a warden message August 6 alerting Americans to the upcoming anniversary and cautioning them to remain vigilant. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) 8/8/88 was a watershed event in modern Burmese history. The most charismatic and potentially unifying figure, Aung San Suu Kyi, has been held incommunicado since ¶2003. Most of the best organizers, including 88 Generation Students leaders Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi, have been imprisoned since August 2007. Those pro-democracy and human rights activists out of prison have been effectively intimidated by the regime to lie low. The NLD elders have once again declined the mantle of leadership. Sadly for Burma, those who want change are vast, but they have not been able to organize and unify themselves to achieve the democratic change they yearn for. VILLAROSA