BURMA: PROMOTING DEMOCRATIC CHANGE THROUGH CYCLONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000518

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM EAID
SUBJECT: BURMA: PROMOTING DEMOCRATIC CHANGE THROUGH CYCLONE
NARGIS RELIEF

REF: A. RANGOON 477 B. RANGOON 454 C. RANGOON 338


Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: Except for a few isolated cases highlighted
by the Burmese exile press, private relief efforts in the
Delta are proceeding unhindered by the GOB, including those
undertaken by pro-democracy groups. These efforts are
widespread and crucial to covering gaps in the government's
inept response to Cyclone Nargis. By necessity, a variety of
private organizations are now playing an important role in
recovery efforts. As a result, relationships between
villagers and local authorities are changing and villagers
are taking actions to ensure aid is distributed transparently
and evenly. The continuing international relief and recovery
effort, conducted properly, has the potential to move Burma
towards democratic change by instilling participatory
decision making and notions of accountability at a
grass-roots level. The regime has opened opportunities to
the international community to work with Burmese civil
society to an unprecedented degree. Only by choosing to
participate in this effort will we be able to shape it and
influence its outcome. End summary.

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High-Profile Arrests
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2. (C) Although exile media has highlighted the arrest of
comedian/activist Zarganar (Ref B),who was working with
other artists and political activists to deliver relief in
the Delta, the majority of private relief efforts continue
unhindered. The few arrests we have learned about appear due
to the arrestees' public criticism of the regime's efforts,
rather than designated to stop private efforts.
Pro-democracy activists tell us Zarganar was likely arrested
because he gave a series of high-profile interviews to
international media criticizing the regime and its inept
response to Cyclone Nargis, not for solely delivering relief.



3. (C) Another arrest given attention in the exile press was
that of political activist and businessman, Aung Kyaw San.
Aung Kyaw San was arrested with several other volunteers when
he returned from burying deceased cyclone victims in the
Delta, a task the government has restricted to the military,
which it does not seem to be fulfilling judging by the
remaining corpses. Though most of those arrested with him
were released, Aung Kyaw San remains in custody in Insein
prison. He is the editor of the weekly "Myanmar Tribune,"
which was temporarily shut-down a few months ago due to
financial problems. Media sources told us authorities
suspect he provides news to foreign news agencies and
launched blogs about the true situation after the storm.

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The Untold Good News
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4. (C) The relief work of Zarganar's fellow-activist/actor
Kyaw Thu and his Free Funeral Society continues unhindered.
88 Generation leader Toe Kyaw Hlaing has also continued
Zarganar's relief works since the arrest, and yesterday
passed to us a VCD of his organization delivering USAID
donated tarps to villages in the Delta. NLD members also
told us they are continuing their relief work in the Delta
without problems. Local officials know who they are, but do
not bother them as long as their work is relief-driven and
not political.


5. (C) There are so many private relief efforts ongoing that
it seems almost every contact we have has organized or
participated in a relief mission to the Delta. U.S. Embassy
employees' families (FSN and American) regularly travel to
the Delta delivering relief supplies. In addition to the
efforts reported in Refs A and C, an American citizen
recently visited us and described the numerous trips she had
taken to the Delta (without official permission) with the
famous Mandalay monk, Sitagu Sayadaw. She described the
massive relief effort he had organized including trucking in
over 300 MT of rice from Thailand and other areas of Burma.
She informed us that the GOB had used the relief network he
had organized to distribute many of the donated goods from
the Thai Government that we had brought in on our C-130
flights.


6. (C) Markus Kostner (PROTECT),a World Bank employee who
participated in the Post Nargis Joint Assessment and is
drafting the social impact analysis, told us that assessors
found a massive outpouring of private assistance from across
Burma throughout the Delta. The aid was being distributed
through monasteries, local NGOs, community based
organizations (CBOs),or directly to villagers. His team
encountered several chartered boats by groups of concerned
citizens from Rangoon or other cities distributing rice,
medicines, and other vital goods. Many local NGOs were
working with and through the prominent trading companies
(otherwise known as the crony companies) because these
companies did not always have the expertise or delivery
mechanisms to reach remote villages or meet specific needs.
NGOs, in turn, found they gained unfettered access by working
with the influential trading companies. The Township
authorities are not fools, Kostner explained, they know the
government does not have the capacity to respond to Nargis
appropriately so they let private donors distribute relief to
the people.

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A New Balance of Power
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7. (C) Kostner continued that the vast and eclectic relief
efforts were bad from a coordination perspective, but very
good from an operating environment perspective. By and
large, the community-based distribution mechanisms set up by
these local NGOs, monks, and businesses gave the villagers
control over distribution of supplies. As a result, Kostner
elaborated, relationships between villagers and local
authorities were changing. In villages they visited, the
residents had taken actions to ensure aid was distributed
transparently and evenly. People now held their leaders
accountable to make sure aid was "spread equitably and used
productively." Kostner deduced that these changing power
structures have the potential to transform existing systems
of patronage and power. Micro-credit and recovery grants
could provide villagers with a sense of independence and
control they did not have before, he explained.

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Getting in the Game
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8. (C) Nay Win Maung and Tin Maung Thann of local NGO
Myanmar Egress urged us to see participation in the Cyclone
Nargis response effort as an opportunity to re-engage Burma
with the world and bring it out of isolation. The
participation of ASEAN, the World Bank, and the ADB could be
used as a push-factor for the GOB, they believed. This would
require creativity and patience, they warned, but was an
opportunity that should not be passed up, especially for a
country with the power and influence of the United States,
which is so deeply respected by the Burmese for its
democratic principles. Cyclone Nargis relief had the
potential to create a bottom-up push for political change by
breaking the patronage bond of the regime, they argued. The
C-130 flights were an excellent start, they added, and an
almost unbelievable concept for most Burmese. No one could
have previously imagined U.S. military planes in Yangon
International Airport, Nay Win Maung commented.

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The C-130s
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9. (C) There has been an overwhelmingly positive response to
our C-130 flights among the Burmese public, government
officials, and international organizations and INGOs. Many
of those who blamed the U.S. for the 2005 pullout of the
Global Fund from Burma have sought us out to comment that our
leadership in the Cyclone Nargis relief effort reversed
negative opinions of us among the assistance community in
Burma and has been favorably commented upon by their GOB
interlocutors. Government officials are now comfortable with
massive amounts of U.S. relief supplies being given directly
to INGOs, who distribute them to those in need, with much
greater access than they ever had before.

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Comment:
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10. (C) The U.S. has an opportunity to show continued
leadership as emergency relief shifts to recovery. Many INGO
representatives have told us they appreciate our principled
stance and the pressure we bring to bear on the UN as a major
donor, to push back when the regime backtracks on access and
visas. We can use this influence to craft a relief effort
that encompasses democratic principles such as participatory
decision making, accountability, and community-engagement,
and builds the capacity of civil society by funding local
NGOs and CBOs. We can sponsor workshops and provide speakers
to further educate and build capacity of these organizations.


11. (C) While the formal political opposition remains
severely constrained by the regime, civil society continues
to expand. Cyclone Nargis relief offers an opportunity to
strengthen it further and promote grass-roots and community
organizations which empower people to find alternatives to
continued military rule. From these organizations future
leaders may one day emerge. However, without training and
funding, this may never happen. In addition, any democratic
transition will have a better chance of succeeding if a
strong civil society is in place. From the current vantage
point, this task seems enormous, but we have to start
somewhere. The overwhelming response of ordinary Burmese to
Cyclone Nargis shows this potential exists. We should take
every opportunity to expand and build on it to promote
sustained, democratic change in Burma. End summary.

VILLAROSA