BURMA: REGIME CLAIMS VICTORY; NLD OFFERS HELP

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000385 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: BURMA: REGIME CLAIMS VICTORY; NLD OFFERS HELP Classified By: Pol Officer Sean O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On May 15, the regime announced its constitution had been overwhelmingly approved in the May 10 referendum, which was held in all areas of the country not critically affected by the storm. Aung San Suu Kyi's private doctor was permitted to briefly visit with her after the cyclone and reported she is in good health. At ASSK's direction, the NLD has established a cyclone relief committee and begun distributing modest amounts of disaster relief. REFERENDUM -------------- ¶2. (U) State-run media announced that the regime's constitution was approved by over 92 percent of the 22 million eligible voters in last Saturday's referendum. According to reports broadcast on state radio on May 15, over 99 percent of eligible voters turned out for the vote on May 10, which was held in all the areas of the country not critically affected by Cyclone Nargis. Another vote in the cyclone affected areas had been scheduled to take place May 24, but may not given the margin of victory. ¶3. (C) The Burmese-national Reuters correspondent in Rangoon told us the Information Ministry refused to comment on, or even confirm, the announcement, instead instructing him simply to "listen to the radio." AUNG SAN SUU KYI -------------- ¶4. (C) The UK POLOFF informed us today that Aung San Suu Kyi's doctor, Tin Myo Win (aka Douglas),was permitted to visit her after the cyclone on May 6 for 20 minutes. Douglas's brother, who is a construction worker, was permitted to accompany him to make minor repairs on her residence. Douglas confirmed that ASSK was in good health and spoke to him about the status of the NLD's "vote no" campaign, without elaborating on what they discussed. ¶5. (C) The NLD informed us that ASSK instructed them to establish a cyclone relief committee, but said she did not specify what activities the committee should undertake. According to Nyan Win, so far 20 NLD members, divided into three teams, have visited parts of the delta's affected area to assess the damage and provide relief. The NLD has provided cash and in-kind assistance valued at approximately 15,000,000 kyat (US$13,636) in the delta. It has also given out an unspecified amount of clothing and rice inside Rangoon, according to Nyan Win. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The regime's announcement that the draft constitution was approved comes as no surprise. The massive margin of victory they claimed, however, demonstrates just how politically tone-deaf Than Shwe is. Few anticipated the referendum would be free and fair. But now it seems Than Shwe does not even care about passing the laugh test. VILLAROSA