BURMA: POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF CYCLONE NARGIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000327

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM EAID
SUBJECT: BURMA: POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF CYCLONE NARGIS

REF: RANGOON 323

RANGOON 00000327 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: In the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis, the
regime announced it would proceed with its constitutional
referendum, except for the five regions it had declared
disaster areas, including Rangoon. Aung San Suu Kyi
weathered the storm, but the "vote no" campaigns of both the
NLD and 88 Generation Students have been disrupted. Rumors
of massive killings during an attempted prison break at
Insein Prison appear exaggerated. The regime has brought the
same troops into the city to help clear debris that it
brought in to clear demonstrators in September. Skyrocketing
inflation, water and food shortages, and rapidly
deteriorating health and sanitary conditions all have the
potential to spur massive political unrest. End summary.


2. (SBU) Despite the unprecedented disaster faced by Burma
from cyclone Nargis, the government announced it would
proceed with its planned May 10 constitutional referendum,
except in the five declared disaster areas. These five areas
cover a population of 15-16 million people, including
Rangoon, Burma's largest city, or approximately 28 percent of
the total population.

"Vote No" Campaign Disrupted
--------------


3. (C) Both the NLD and 88 Generation reported that their
"vote no" campaigns have been disrupted due to damage and
lack of communication in the wake of cyclone Nargis. NLD
spokesman U Nyan Win relayed to us that the NLD "vote no"
campaign is no longer operational in any of the areas
affected by the cyclone as the campaigners were also affected
by the cyclone and were busy cleaning up and finding food and
water. He noted that the campaign was proceeding in those
areas not affected by the storm. 88 Generation reported to
us that they have lost contact with many of their activists.
They were likely to be unable to regroup before May 10.

The Lady is OK
--------------


4. (SBU) NLD spokesman U Nyan Win also confirmed that Aung
San Suu Kyi weathered the storm and is fine. The government
deployed convicts sentenced to hard labor to clear away trees
and debris from the area surrounding her home. The NLD plans
to form a "rescue committee" to raise funds and disburse
goods, informed U Nyan Win. The NLD Central Executive
Committee was meeting to work out the details.

Prison Break
--------------


5. (SBU) Reports are circulating around Rangoon and in the
exile community that several political prisoners were shot,
killed, or escaped when a prison wall at Insein prison was
crushed by a falling tree. Embassy Rangoon has been unable
to confirm these rumors, although sources told us a wall in
cell block one was breached by a tree and three prisoners
were shot trying to escape. A stray bullet reportedly hit a
fuel tank that exploded and caused a large fire. Min Ko
Naing and other high-profile prisoners are reportedly being
held in cell block two, and were not injured in the commotion.

A Hungry Man is an Angry Man
--------------


6. (C) The government has done little to alleviate the
massive suffering of the millions affected by the cyclone.
It has established an emergency committee headed by PM Thein
Sein, and sent the same army divisions into Rangoon to clean
up debris that it sent in September to clear the streets of
monks and peaceful demonstrators. They are poorly equipped
and can be seen around town trying to dismantle fallen trees
with little more than knifes and brooms. Residents complain
that the GOB gave them so little warning and made so few

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preparations for the cyclone.


7. (C) The areas of the Delta most damaged by Nargis were
Burma's major rice producing regions. The regime, which has
for so long successfully controlled rice prices, is now
facing the possibility of major shortages and soaring
inflation, not only for rice, but for other basic commodities
and foodstuffs as well. According to our sources,
military-owned and controlled Myanmar Economic Cooperation
(MEC) and Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (UMEHL)
have 50,000 tons of rice in hand, but are holding on to it
and forcing private rice traders to donate rice instead.
Regime crony Tay Za's Htoo Trading company has distributed
500 bags (69 lb. each) and 300 viss (600 liters) of oil to
authorities in one of Rangoon's poorest and most affected
townships. The government has also asked the Rice/Paddy
Traders Association to sell rice to the people at a low,
reasonable price. So far, this has had no effect on rapidly
rising rice prices. A reliable and knowledgeable contact
estimates that if the government does not take quick action
soon, there will be rice shortages in Rangoon next week.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Already lacking international credibility, it is
difficult to see how the regime could claim any legitimacy
for its new constitution if it proceeds with the referendum
without almost a third of Burma's population. This
unprecedented humanitarian disaster has knocked both the
regime and the pro-democracy opposition off of their game.
Both are grappling to respond. While the regime continues to
make claims of recovery that people know are untrue, and to
dismiss the need for international expertise to provide
humanitarian relief, the generals may have to reverse course
in order to assure their own survival. A situation of
rapidly deteriorating food, water, and sanitary conditions,
coupled with skyrocketing inflation, has the potential to
bring the regime down in a manner that is in no one's
interest. End comment.
VILLAROSA