BURMA'S SENIOR GENERAL REPORTEDLY SICK AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000292

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA'S SENIOR GENERAL REPORTEDLY SICK AND
INCREASINGLY ISOLATED

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Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: Sources tell us Than Shwe is displaying
increasingly erratic behavior, but remains firmly in power
and in control. He is single-handedly calling the shots
regarding the upcoming constitutional referendum and the next
steps of the roadmap, including the parliamentary election.
Military factions in Nay Pyi Taw are becoming increasingly
nervous about maintaining their positions and their power
after 2010. A key source tells us that Aung San Suu Kyi and
other key political activists will not be released from
prison until after the 2010 elections, to prevent them from
successfully gaining a parliamentary majority. End summary.


2. (C) Phone Win, a businessman with close ties to many
high-level regime generals, told us Than Shwe has displayed
increasingly erratic behavior. However, he remained firmly
in control and was personally directing the implementation of
the upcoming constitutional referendum and the next steps of
the regime's "roadmap to democracy." Than Shwe's
unwillingness to share or explain his vision, and his
hastily-announced decision to end the constitution drafting
and hold the referendum, have made the senior generals and
bureaucrats who surround Than Shwe increasingly nervous about
their place in Burma's political future, Phone Win
elaborated.


3. (C) According to Phone Win, many of the top generals
believe Than Shwe knows he has only a few years to live, and
has dictated the timing of the referendum and elections to
make sure a parliamentary government, overseen by the
military, is in place before he dies. This would ensure
another military dictator does not take over from Than Shwe
and imprison his family, as Than Shwe himself did to former
strong-man Ne Win's family, Phone Win explained. This was
the motivation for the last-minute insertion of the amnesty
provision in the draft constitution, he believed. Others,
including the Thai Ambassador, believe a similar provision in
Thailand's revised constitution served as the model.


4. (C) Phone Win said that Aung San Suu Kyi and other
prominent political prisoners would likely not be released
until after the 2010 parliamentary election. USDA leaders
would make sure they were not, Phone Win declared, because
they were aware of Aung San Suu Kyi's popularity and wanted
no one to emerge who could successfully organize the
opposition to challenge them in the election. Another source
inside the government claimed that, even after the 2010
elections, most of the cabinet ministers will be appointed by
the military.


5. (C) Phone Win also told us Than Shwe was becoming
increasingly distrustful of the generals beneath him and
becoming more isolated. All information from the SPDC,
ministers, and regional commanders was reported to
third-ranking General Thura Shwe Mann, and only he was
allowed access to Than Shwe and Maung Aye. Despite the
enormous power accorded to him by this select access, Than
Shwe reportedly keeps Shwe Mann on his toes by appointing his
own loyalists throughout the military and the bureaucracy,
often overruling the promotions Shwe Mann recommends.


6. (C) In a separate conversation, Singapore Ambassador
Robert Chua told us Than Shwe has canceled several medical
appointments he had scheduled in Singapore to follow-up the
medical treatment he received in January 2007. Chua has also
heard from Singapore businessmen that Than Shwe's behavior is
increasingly bizarre and unexplainable, leading to
speculation the senior general may have some form of
dementia. Chua also noted that military factions in Nay Pyi
Taw are increasingly nervous about the future, relaying that
there is much speculation that Than Shwe has little time left
to live.


7. (C) Chua also conveyed reports from the Singapore
business community that new Secretary 1, Tin Aung Myint Oo,
had a terrible temper and was hated throughout Nay Pyi Taw.

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Chua speculated that if Than Shwe were to go, Tin Aung Myint
Oo would quickly be ousted. In contrast, Chua stated, the
new Central Commander, based in Mandalay, Brigadier General
Tin Ngwe, is young (43 years),smart, well-liked, and
apparently uncorrupted. Singapore businessmen told Chua that
he had refused several offers of elaborate gifts and
expensive dinners most regional commanders expect. Chua also
spoke well of Northeast Commander Brigadier General Aung Than
Htut. In his opinion, the regional commanders are the best
hope for eventual reform of Burma's military since the nature
of their work makes them more aware of the economic and
development problems Burma faces.


8. (C) Comment: While it is clear that Than Shwe is not in
top form, there is no evidence he is about to drop dead.
Uncertainty and paranoia are bound to surround any political
transition, and Than Shwe's secrecy and isolation only
increases this trend. In the absence of reliable
information, rumors of impending coups and the senior
general's death constantly circulate in Burma and in the
exile community. While accounts of more progressive and
engaging regional commanders give some hope that a leader
could emerge to reform Burma's military in the future, this
has an element of wishful thinking. We see no evidence that
Than Shwe will willingly relinquish power. Rather, he
appears determined to protect his power and his family's
wealth. End Comment.
VILLAROSA