Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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08RANGOON284 | 2008-04-24 10:06:00 | SECRET | Embassy Rangoon |
VZCZCXRO3562 OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH RUEHTRO DE RUEHGO #0284/01 1151006 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 241006Z APR 08 FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7427 INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1078 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4626 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8166 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5727 RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1520 RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1481 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC |
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000284 |
1. (C) Summary: 88 Generation continued their vote "no" campaign during the April water festival, and are working now to organize local "watch groups" throughout Burma to volunteer to observe vote counts at local precincts. The regime may have already complicated this plan as papers released this morning announced that only the last 10 voters at each precinct would be allowed to observe the count. Activists told us there was some protest activity over water festival, though they admitted it was limited and sporadic. Ordinary Burmese remain confused about the referendum, and many say they will vote "no" simply because they hate the regime. However, the fear that the regime will track how people vote remains pervasive, and many people we speak with say they will vote "yes" so that they will not be punished. End summary. 2. (C) 88 Generation leaders Toe Kyaw Hlaing and Soe Tun continued their "vote no" campaign activities during Burma's recent Water Festival holidays. Toe Kyaw Hlaing stayed in Rangoon meeting with activists to organize "watch groups" that will volunteer to be citizen observers of the vote counting on the May 10 referendum day. He explained that activists throughout Burma were recruiting their friends and fellow students, who are not known to the authorities as political activists, to volunteer at their local precincts to observe the vote counting. They sought groups of three to quietly watch the counting and report the results back to their 88 Generation friends. Even if they saw irregularities, Toe Kyaw Hlaing emphasized, they would not create a disturbance at the poll. 88 Generation hopes to organize 3,000 watch groups. The regime may have already complicated this plan as papers released this morning announced that only the last 10 of each precinct's voters would be allowed to observe the count. 3. (S) Toe Kyaw Hlaing has rented an office and several cell phones with the Special Response Fund grant his organization received from the Embassy. 88 Generation members will report their observations at local precincts to him at the Yangon office that will serve as the collection center. 88 Generation then plans to share their findings with the NLD, which has plans to run its own observation operation (septel), to coordinate information sharing with the outside media. 4. (C) Toe Kyaw Hlaing acknowledged to us that there was very little opposition activity during the April Water festival, but countered that it was a useful time for the activists to organize because large groups of the police and Swan-Ar-Shin were preoccupied watching revelers at the pandals, the massive stages constructed to spray water at the crowds. 5. (C) Toe Kyaw Hlaing told us that most of the blue-shirted security guards visible at each pandal were actually Special Branch Police officers and Swan-Ar-Shin that the pandal sponsors had to hire for a fee of 60,000 kyat. Toe Kyaw Hlaing claimed to have witnessed a large fight on the last day of water festival over a car full of activists who were loudly singing a popular song with lyrics altered to encourage people to vote "no". When the security guards from the nearest pandal heard them, they quickly moved toward the car to arrest the passengers. Several onlookers prevented the guards from reaching the car and a fight broke out. Three guards were seriously injured during the fight, Toe Kyaw Hlaing reported. 6. (C) Activist Soe Tun told us that he and other 88 Generation members had traveled around Bagan and upper Burma during the water festival to organize activists there. He related that they were encouraged by the many people they met who told them they would be voting "no" in the referendum. Confusion about the referendum remains high, Soe Tun said, but many people said they would vote "no" solely because that was contrary to what the regime advocated. RANGOON 00000284 002.4 OF 002 7. (C) Comment: Although 88 Generation is working hard to spread their message, their numbers are small, the work is slow, and the referendum is approaching fast. Many people we speak to remain afraid to vote "no" because they believe the regime has a way to trace how people vote and they are afraid they, their families, or their villages will be punished for rejecting the constitution. The regime continues to print vote "yes" editorials in its daily mouthpiece paper, but many pay no attention to the message since they do not offer any reasons why this benefits the people. However, absent any viable means to verify the vote counting, as well as the fear of being punished for a "no" vote, means that whatever result is announced will have no credibility with anyone familiar with a "free and fair" process. End comment. VILLAROSA |