MONKS OF CENTRAL BURMA PREDICT MORE PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000121 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: MONKS OF CENTRAL BURMA PREDICT MORE PROTESTS RANGOON 00000121 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Poloff Chelsia Wheeler for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Monks from monasteries in Yenanchaung and Kyaukpadaung believe that there will be further demonstrations sooner rather than later. This area in Central Burma historically has given rise to popular movements, and citizens of the two towns actively joined the September protests. The worsening economic situation in the region, along with citizens' willingness to challenge soldiers, were cited as reasons for the likelihood of future protests. END SUMMARY. Monks Afraid to Return -------------- ¶2. (C) On February 8, Poloff and P/E LES visited monasteries in Yenanchaung and Kyaukpadaung along the Irrawaddy River in Magwe Division. Magwe Division is one of the poorest divisions in the country due to lack of rainfall to grow enough food. The people are predominantly ethnic Burman and strongly supported the NLD during the 1990 elections. Citizens of the two towns we visited took an active role during the September protests. ¶3. (C) U Thanwaya, head monk at Thukhawaddy Monastery in Kyaukpadaung, which was one of the most active monasteries during the September protests, told us that during the peak, crowds of men and women surrounded his monastery to protect it from soldiers. They threw stones and sticks at the soldiers, who eventually left the scene without injuring any of the citizens. The people considered this a great victory against the government. U Thanwaya estimated that approximately thirty percent of the local population participated in the demonstrations in some way, a far higher percentage than in either Rangoon or Mandalay. ¶4. (C) Immediately after the protests, almost all of the monks left Yenanchaung, although many have since returned, reported Shwe Win Kyi, treasurer of the local branch of the Free Funeral Society. (The Free Funeral Society has offices in Sapeyone Monastery, another active monastery during the protests.) She said that of over a hundred monks who lived in Sapeyone Monastery prior to September, most came from local villages. All but thirty have returned since leaving in September. Monks at Zeyathuka and Thirithuka Monasteries on the outskirts of Yenanchaung also reported that a few monks have yet to return from the surrounding villages. ¶5. (C) In contrast, U Thanwaya, whose monastery in Kyaukpadaung housed nearly 300 monks, now has no more than ¶200. The monk offered two reasons to explain why fewer monks have returned to his monastery. Unlike Sapeyone, Zeyathuka, and Thirithuka Monasteries, many of the monks at U Thanwaya's monastery came from towns and villages further away. Some monks may also be afraid to return. ¶6. (C) The government has very little leverage with monasteries in the area, but has taken other measures to block further protests. For example, U Thanwaya said that the government has ordered the closure of four private NLD-run schools at the end of the term in March. NLD members had been active behind-the-scenes during the protests, and he speculated that the government feared NLD organizing future protests. The government strategy, said U Thanwaya, is to put the local NLD out of business. Poverty Breeds Dissent -------------- ¶7. (C) Shwe Win Kyi and U Thanwaya told us that monks' parents would not let them return for fear of further protests. Their fear was compounded by the poor economic situation in Central Burma combined with intense underlying anger after September's events. All of the monks we spoke with in Yenanchaung said that the economic situation worsens daily. We noticed several children at Zeyathuka Monastery who the monks said came from surrounding villagers in hopes of eating some of the monastery leftovers. The monasteries RANGOON 00000121 002.2 OF 002 themselves, he said, cannot house as many monks as before because the local population cannot afford to give them as much in alms. ¶8. (C) Shwe Win Kyi reported a rumor that monks would rise up again during a Buddhist monk examination to be held in March or April. U Thanwaya refused to give such a definite date, but predicted that more protests would take place before the end of the year. They would be bigger, he asserted, and the situation would probably get worse before it got better. ¶9. (C) Comment. The international press paid little attention to protests in these small towns in Central Burma, since they did not have access. These towns, however, have historically served as the based for popular movements in the country, including for NLD in 1990. The military has done nothing to improve their lives since then, and increasing poverty and anger could spark another movement. In Burma, the protests in the large cities may get international attention, but the popular resentment against the military is widespread throughout the country. End comment. VILLAROSA