ECUADOR: CORREA'S TAKE ON TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000075 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2018 TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL EC SUBJECT: ECUADOR: CORREA'S TAKE ON TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY SOCIALISM REF: 07 QUITO 2237 Classified By: Ambassador Linda Jewell for Reasons 1.4 (b&d). ¶1. (C) Summary. While Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa espouses many principles of "21st Century Socialism" and occasionally uses the term, he has thus far been moderate in attempting to translate the ideas into concrete reality. Correa has pursued certain socialist ideas in the areas of Latin American regionalization, the economy, and politics. However, there are also significant areas where Correa has not adopted the new socialist policies of Chavez or Mexican-based German academic Heinz Dieterich, the intellectual father of the doctrine. Driven by a strong sense of nationalism and determination to remain in the driver,s seat, Correa,s brand of 21st Century Socialism will likely continue to be a uniquely Ecuadorian hybrid. End Summary. In Search of an Ecuador Specific Definition -------------- ¶2. (C) Although President Correa has joined the regional bandwagon in using the phrase 21st Century Socialism, he has denied that his own version directly follows the theories advanced by Heinz Dieterich, author of "Socialism of the Twenty-First Century," as applied by Venezuelan President Chavez. President Correa and key members of his cabinet have repeatedly affirmed that Ecuador's version of 21st Century Socialism is unique and specific to Ecuador. For example, on November 24, Correa emphasized, "We will search for answers according to our reality, our necessities, and our values", and that "each country needs to look for its own solutions." He added that China, Venezuela, Chile, CUBA and Ecuador each have different realities. ¶3. (SBU) On other occasions, Correa has defended 21st Century Socialism. He said, "When you examine successful societies, you discover that what made them successful was collective action; and at the social level that comes via the state, which must have a fundamental role in the economy and society." Further attempting to define his version of socialism, Correa has asserted that his political project intends to "search for the social justice that is so necessary in the country and reassert the supremacy of human labor over capital." ¶4. (C) Dieterich visited Ecuador in late August (a month before the elections for the Constituent Assembly). Although accompanied in some instances by senior GOE officials, there were no photo ops with Correa. During his visit, Dieterich emphasized several themes that were evidently uncomfortable for the GOE, such as public ownership of property and prices based on a worker's time. A few days later, in different interviews, then Minister of Government (currently Coordinating Minister for Security, and an intellectual father of Correa,s PAIS movement) Gustavo Larrea asserted that the GOE would follow its own policy prescription, not Dieterich's, saying "We are defining our own policy. The model we propose is of the 21st century, not of the 19th century," and he continued to say that in his view Dieterich's policies are of the 19th century. Regionalization and Foreign Policy -------------- ¶5. (SBU) As an intermediate step toward the "New Historical Project" or the new ultimate socialist model, Dieterich recommends the formation of a Regional Bloc of Power for defense and self-help. This regional power bloc would basically be a system of close alliances among Latin American states. ¶6. (C) Correa agrees with Dieterich that regionalization is essential. He is a strong advocate for the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR),and recently decided to provide USD 3.5 million to construct a headquarters for the organization in Quito. He joined in inaugurating the Banco del Sur on December 9, 2007. The Correa Administration has sought to expand political and commercial ties with countries throughout Latin America. ¶7. (C) Correa enthusiastically supports "South-South" partnership, chafes at perceived dependency of any kind, and tends to believe that the "asymmetries" in power between developed and developing countries inevitably play out at the cost of the weaker. But he also pragmatically recognizes the need for broad international engagement. While expanding regional ties, the GOE has also sought to build better relations with Europe and Asia and has worked pragmatically with the United States in areas like counternarcotics, development programs, and international exchanges. Furthermore, Correa has pressed Venezuela to rejoin the Community of Andean Nations (CAN) in return for Ecuador joining the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), which thus far has served to keep Ecuador out of ALBA. Economics -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Dieterich presents 21st Century Socialism as an alternative to neoliberal global capitalism that provides a more equal distribution of wealth. His core tenets that market prices should be replaced by prices derived from the amount an employee works and that economic decisions be made by the majority receive no echo in Correa's policies and were ridiculed by media commentators in Ecuador. His comments about eventual broad state control over property were disavowed by Larrea and other PAIS leaders. ¶9. (C) Some of Dieterich's more specific policy prescriptions have modest echoes with Correa's public pronouncements, such as characterizing some external debt as "illegitimate," seeking equality in international trade, ending the protectionism of rich countries, and redistributing wealth. In practical terms, Correa's implementation of these ideas has been limited, non-existent, or mixed. For example, he continues to honor Ecuador's external debt, and disavowed a free trade agreement with the U.S. based on the current model but is pursing trade talks with the European Union and Canada. He doubled income transfers to the poor and implemented a modestly more progressive tax regime, but has made no moves to widen state control or ownership beyond "strategic sectors" such as energy. Politics -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Some of Dieterich,s fundamental political assumptions include: society can only proceed with New Socialism through democracy; change is both a moral imperative and historically inevitable; and the State is equivalent to society under participatory democracy. ¶11. (C) As part of what he considers a "moral imperative," Correa has strongly attacked what he regards as "corrupt" institutions of "bourgeois political control." He sees much of the root of political degradation in the established political parties and the entrenched economic elites they have traditionally served. Believing that his leadership of the State is "equivalent with society," or at least with the will of the people as exemplified in elections, Correa diminished the role of Congress by ruling through emergency decrees and then pushing successfully for the Constituent Assembly to recess Congress indefinitely in late November. He frequently refers to his government as a "citizen revolution." Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) What is less clear than Correa,s interpretation of 21st Century Socialism is how his vision can be codified in the new constitution, how far he may ultimately seek to push change in any radical directions, and to what extent it will be accepted by the Ecuadorian people over the long term. Polls show that Ecuadorians are identifying less and less with traditional political labels of "right" and "left." Beyond rhetoric, Correa needs to show results to retain his popularity over the medium term. Given his fervent nationalism and head-strong nature, the only certainty is that whatever emerges will be a uniquely Ecuadorian model. JEWELL