ECUADOR: POST-ASSEMBLY TRANSITION RULES

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000692 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2028 TAGS: PGOV KJUS EC SUBJECT: ECUADOR: POST-ASSEMBLY TRANSITION RULES Classified By: Charge Doug Griffiths for reason 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Along with the rushed approval of over half the draft constitution, the final two weeks of the Constituent Assembly was marked by the approval of transitional rules that give the government's Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement greater control over key institutions. Initially the Constituent Assembly will retain legislative and oversight powers. If the new constitution wins approval, special provisions go into effect governing the institutional transition and 2009 elections. Some observers claim that PAIS rushed to consolidate power faced with uncertain poll results showing 57% of voters still undecided on whether to support the new constitution. (End of summary) ASSEMBLY DEFINES THE NEXT YEAR'S POLITICAL REALITY ¶2. (SBU) The Constituent Assembly passed on July 23 a series of transitional provisions covering two periods. The Assembly president may temporarily convene the Assembly based on "extraordinary reasons properly justified" during the first period, which lasts from the Assembly's submission of the new constitutional text to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (July 25) until the official announcement of the referendum results (expected October 15). This mandate, approved with the support of 82 of 130 Assembly members, extends the Assembly's exercise of legislative and oversight functions, but drops its claim to complete powers. ¶3. (C) The Assembly approved a complex "Transition Regime" for the second period, which begins after the referendum results are announced if the new constitution is approved. Each of the articles was voted separately and passed with an average of 85 votes. Opposition Assembly members criticized what they considered the majority's abuse of power in pushing these rules; for example, Leonardo Viteri of the Social Christian Party (PSC) said that "power and beauty are ephemeral, the world spins around; I hope you won't fall in this trap." In contrast, PAIS Assembly member Maria Paula Romo wrote that "Our first and most important decision: the transition will be decided by the Ecuadorian people." ¶4. (C) One contentious issue in the "Transition Regime" was whether to specify that the unpopular congress elected in October 2006 would be re-installed if the new constitution were not approved. PAIS Assembly member Virgilio Hernandez considered such a provision redundant since an early Assembly decision declaring the congress in recess until announcement of the referendum results would mean the return of the old congress if the "no" vote prevailed. The opposition argued that such a provision was meant to blackmail voters into approving the constitution and that a legislative election should take place regardless of the referendum outcome. In the end, the subject was not addressed. PSC President Pascual del Cioppo told PolCouns that delegates from the three largest parties in the former congress, including his own, planned to resign so that Correa could not campaign on the issue. TRANSITIONAL REGIME WOULD FOLLOW YES VOTE ¶5. (C) Judiciary: If the new constitution is approved, judicial institutions at the national, district, and provincial level would be re-organized based on the "Transitional Regime". A lottery would determine which of the current 31 Supreme Court Justices remain temporarily in what would now be a less powerful National Court of Justice. PAIS Assembly vice-president Cesar Rodriguez had repeatedly questioned the integrity of Supreme Court justices; he insisted that the Supreme Court must "respond to the country about the serious instances of corruption that affect the administration of justice." Supreme Court president Robert Gomez Mera argued that the Assembly had changed the Court from merit-based selection to a raffle. The highest judicial body under the new constitution, the Constitutional Court, would evolve from the current Constitutional Tribunal, whose members are to remain for now. ¶6. (C) Legislature: The Assembly would meet after the constitution's approval to appoint a "legislative and oversight commission", intended to represent parties in proportion to their Assembly seats. This commission would function until the new legislature is in place in 2009. Several opposition Assembly members said they would neither be part of this interim legislative commission nor attend if the Assembly reconvened. Even former Assembly president Alberto Acosta (PAIS) announced that he would resign his Assembly seat after July 25. Some opposition members felt differently; for example, Galo Lara told us that although Patriotic Society party leader Lucio Gutierrez had decided his party would not participate, he (Lara) preferred to be there to see the laws under consideration. ¶7. (SBU) Citizen and oversight bodies: Within 15 days the legislative commission is to initiate a public contest to appoint members of the newly-created Citizen Participation and Social Control Council. This Council will organize the selection of the citizen commissions that will appoint oversight authorities. ALL EYES ON GENERAL ELECTIONS ¶8. (C) With Correa apparently fearing that his popularity will erode over time, PAIS designed the "Transition Regime" to ensure full speed ahead to general elections following approval of the constitutional referendum. The President, Vice President, Andean Parliament representatives, a new national legislature, provincial prefects and vice prefects, mayors, city councilors, and rural parish board members will be elected sometime in early 2009. ¶9. (C) Electoral bodies: The Constituent Assembly itself would appoint the provisional members of the National Elections Council (which will organize the 2009 elections) and the Elections Appeal Tribunal (to resolve any disputes). PRIAN Assembly member Tito Mendoza argued that this means Correa will have the arbiter of the elections in his favor. The National Elections Council must call for elections within 30 days. In a separate move last week, the PAIS Assembly majority, invoking provisions of the 1998 constitution at the request of Politics Minister Ricardo Patino, removed Andres Leon of the Christian Democratic Union from the current Supreme Electoral Tribunal that will organize the referendum, replacing him with PAIS appointee Juan David Cevallos. Leon said during a television interview that the decision would impede investigation of alleged contributions from abroad to Correa's 2006 presidential campaign. ¶10. (C) Political parties: To avoid delay, the new constitution's requirement that political parties re-register was lifted for the 2009 elections for political organizations that presented candidates in the September 2007 Constituent Assembly election. Other organizations that wish to participate must submit a list with signatures equivalent to 1% of registered voters. ¶11. (C) Terms: To allow President Correa two more full terms in office, the "Transition Regime" considers the term of those elected in 2009 their first term. The President, Vice President, national legislators, and Andean Parliament members will finish their "first" terms in May 2013. To separate local from national elections in the future, the next two terms of the local authorities would be extended from four to five years, to 2014 and 2019. JULY POLL RESULTS ¶12. (SBU) A July poll by the firm Confidential Report showed that 57% of Ecuadorians have not yet decided how to vote in the September 28 referendum. Among those respondents who have made up their minds, 44% said they will vote "yes", 34% plan to vote "no", and 22% will leave the ballot blank or invalid. The statute passed in the April 2007 referendum requires 50% plus one "yes" votes out of all votes cast for the new constitution to go into affect. COMMENT ¶13. (C) These transition rules not surprisingly favor President Correa. Assembly member Luis Hernandez of the center-left Ethics and Democracy Network (RED) may not be far off the mark in telling PolCouns that Correa and his PAIS movement felt threatened and therefore resorted to desperate measures. Perhaps the weakest link in PAIS's armor in the days ahead is the legislature, since the legitimacy of the reconvened Assembly and the legislative commission would be undermined if the opposition refuses to take part. CDA Griffiths