UNPARALLELED MAJORITY: THE STRENGTH OF ECUADOR'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000035 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV EC SUBJECT: UNPARALLELED MAJORITY: THE STRENGTH OF ECUADOR'S PAIS MOVEMENT REF: QUITO 030 Classified By: DCM Jefferson T. Brown for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Despite recent declines in public opinion polls (reftel) President Correa's Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement, which dominates Ecuador's Constituent Assembly, remains the strongest political organization that the country has seen since returning to democracy in 1979. The composition of the Assembly in general and the PAIS bloc in particular is relatively young and well-educated, with women, Afro-Ecuadorians, and the indigenous well-represented. The comfortable majority PAIS enjoys represents a generational change in Ecuadorian politics, with both opportunities and risks that post is monitoring. BREAKING THE POLITICAL MOLD -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The political dominance of the Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement, which controls 62% of the seats in the Constituent Assembly, has no precedent in the traditionally fragmented Ecuadorian party system since the return to democracy in 1979. In the 11 legislatures elected since then, a single party never controlled more than 43% of the seats. -- a record set by the Democratic Left (ID) in ¶1988. ¶3. (SBU) The Democratic Left was strong during the period 1979-1988, winning pluralities in all but one legislative election, but never achieving a majority. Democratic Left support was largely concentrated in the mountainous region (sierra). More recently, the Social Christian Party (PSC), based on the coast, was the largest party in five Congresses between 1990 and 2002, with a high of 34% of the seats in ¶1994. ¶4. (SBU) In the Congress elected in 2006, which was suspended by the Constituent Assembly in November 2007, the Institutional Renewal and National Action Party (PRIAN, another coastal party),had a plurality with 28% of seats, followed by former president Lucio Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party (PSP) with 23%. PAIS, as part of its political strategy, did not present candidates for Congress. ¶5. (SBU) The last Ecuadorian Constituent Assembly, which produced the 1998 constitution, was not controlled by a single party. Although the Assembly was called largely in response to indigenous demands, the more conservative PSC won a plurality with 29% of the seats, followed by the center-right Popular Democracy party (now called Christian Democratic Union, or UDC) with 14% and the coastal populist Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE) with 10%. STRONGEST POLITICAL ORGANIZATION IN MEMORY -------------- ¶6. (SBU) PAIS's political feat in the September Constituent Assembly elections was to capture large numbers of votes not only in one region or in the most populated areas, but throughout the entire country, winning seats in all but one province. Andres Valdivieso, then advisor to former Minister of Government Gustavo Larrea (and now with Larrea in the Ministry for the Coordination of Internal and External Security),told PolChief on December 5 that "PAIS is the only political organization with national representation since 1895." ¶7. (SBU) PAIS is a diverse organization. As then NGO Citizen Participation Executive Director (recently appointed Vice Foreign Minister) Jose Valencia told us, some PAIS members believe in democratic principles, while others are more authoritarian and extreme. Formed in 2005 by four groups (Citizen Initiative, National Democratic Action, Alfarista Bolivarian Alliance Movement, and Jubilee 2000),over time PAIS brought into the fold a large number of other political and social organizations. At an October 24 conference, Minister Larrea stated that half of the candidates on the PAIS ticket represented those other groups. Furthermore, an already diverse PAIS formed alliances with other parties in support of provincial candidates, as a result of which it won seven additional seats in six provinces. CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY MAKE-UP -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The PAIS delegation includes at least 22 individuals lacking prior experience in politics. By contrast, in the PSP ranks, 17 out of 19 assembly members had held or run for public office prior to winning an Assembly seat. Two Assembly members were also a part of the body that wrote the 1998 Constitution: Cesar Rohon (PSC) and Ivan Rodriguez (PAIS, ex-Democratic Popular Movement). ¶9. (SBU) Women represent 35% of the Constituent Assembly membership, up from 26% in the Congress elected in 2006 (before 57 were dismissed). While PAIS counts 45% women among its Assembly members, their representation is much lower within the PSP (11%). Afro-Ecuadorians occupy 3.9% of the Assembly membership and indigenous 6.2%. Both figures are close to the ones reported in the 2001 census when respondents were asked to report their own ethnicity. ¶10. (SBU) Assembly members are generally well educated. Nearly nine out of ten have earned an undergraduate degree. The most common professional backgrounds are lawyers (30%), professionals in education (11%),and business (8%). The ages of Assembly members range from 21 to 76, with 43 years as the average. ¶11. (SBU) Each of the ten committees constituted by the Constituent Assembly has eight PAIS representatives out of a total of 13 members. The leadership of the committees is balanced by gender, but not by political party. Women occupy half of the committee leadership slots. While PAIS controls 62% of the Assembly seats, it holds 90% of the committee leadership positions. On the key legislative and oversight committee, there is only one opposition member, representing PSP, who is likely to vote against PAIS; the other four non-PAIS members are ideologically closer to PAIS. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) PAIS's strength within the Assembly presents an opportunity for implementing needed reforms aimed at improving competitiveness, reducing poverty, making Congress more representative, depoliticizing the judiciary, and fighting corruption. The fresh PAIS faces may help convince a jaded citizenry that the Assembly is producing positive changes deserving of support. On the other hand, PAIS's comfortable majority and tight internal discipline bring risks, including the possibility of excessive centralization of power in the presidency, restrictions on the market economy, and hasty or ill-considered legislation. JEWELL