Measuring Transformational Diplomacy in Ecuador: Poll Shows

UNCLAS QUITO 000134 SIPDIS STATE FOR:R-GWELCH, WHA/PDA, WHA/AND, INR-SBIRD SIPDIS REFTELS: QUITO 915 (2007); QUITO 2235 (2005) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PINR PGOV EC PREL MARR MASS KPAO SUBJECT: Measuring Transformational Diplomacy in Ecuador: Poll Shows Improved U.S. Image and Further Opportunities ¶1. Summary: A national poll commissioned by Embassy Quito and conducted in five Ecuadorian cities Jan. 10-14, 2008 shows an improved overall image of the U.S. among Ecuadorian publics, with regional variations that point to opportunities for additional transformational diplomacy (TD) efforts to improve the U.S. image in Ecuador further. Eighteen months after the Department assigned a total of three new TD positions to Embassy Quito and Consulate General Guayaquil as part of Global Repositioning, the Mission's outreach and public diplomacy (PD) efforts to publicize USG assistance programs in Ecuador have made a measurable impact in the cities we have targeted. The poll also revealed that in cities where we have deployed fewer of our TD resources, there is room to educate local publics on USG efforts to help Ecuador in order to improve the U.S. image. End Summary. Poll Results Show Progress and Opportunity ¶2. The 2008 poll was conducted by local polling firm Cedatos as face to face interviews among 1291 adults in the urban areas of Quito, Guayaquil, Cuenca, Manta and Portoviejo, with a 5 percent margin of error. Overall, the poll results were more positive than we expected given negative local media coverage of bilateral issues such as ATPA renewal and FOL renewal, and represented significant positive movement from a year ago on general impressions of the U.S. Key findings include: -- 46 percent consider the U.S. "a friend of Ecuador" while 45 percent do not, an improvement from an August 2007 national poll also conducted by Cedatos that found only 33 percent considered the U.S. "a friend of Ecuador" while 59 percent did not. -- For those who responded that they did not consider the U.S. a friend of Ecuador, the top reason cited was "The U.S. seeks its own interests," by 37 percent. --To the question "How could the U.S. provide assistance to help Ecuador change," 27 percent responded "create jobs" while 17 percent each said "give student loans" and "reduce poverty." -- A majority of respondents felt positively about U.S.-Ecuador relations, U.S. relations with Latin America, U.S. promotion of democratic values worldwide, the U.S. fight against drug trafficking, U.S. efforts to solve environmental issues and U.S. commercial policies. 77 percent disagreed with the war in Iraq, the only negative result. -- 73 percent of respondents agreed that USG counternarcotics assistance benefits Ecuador. -- 60 percent of the sample said they had heard about a USG assistance program to Ecuador. Drilling deeper into these responses by city and cohort, some trends emerged that show where the Mission's TD and PD efforts have made a difference, and reveal where there are opportunities to improve the U.S. image through further TD and PD work. Guayaquil and Manta Very Positive, Quito somewhat lower; Cuenca much Lower ¶3. Poll results by city show that larger publics in Manta, where the USAF has its Forward Operating Location, and Guayaquil, where the Consulate General is located, consider the U.S. a friend of Ecuador and have heard about USG assistance programs. We attribute these positive numbers to the physical USG presence in these cities, periodic high-profile visits by Amb. Jewell and other Mission PD activities such as donations, which generate positive media coverage. Publics in Quito, despite the presence of the Embassy and frequent public activities by Amb. Jewell and other Embassy officials, have a lower although still positive view of the U.S. and less awareness of USG assistance programs, which we attribute to the capital's saturated news environment that makes it more difficult to capture people's attention. To maintain the positive public opinion in Guayaquil and Manta, the Mission will continue its TD and PD efforts, including public events by the Ambassador, Consul General, and FOL Commander; scheduled upcoming events include an AID signing ceremony, an adopt-a-school improvement campaign run by entry level officers in Guayaquil, and a donation of 6000 backpacks to school children near the FOL. In Quito, the Ambassador and other officers will continue to conduct public events and media interviews to reach the capital's opinion shapers and mass audiences. These traditional PD efforts will be augmented by TD efforts carried out by the Economics and Political Sections, including public speaking engagements, digital video conferences, and a high school essay contest. Engage with Regional Cities ¶4. Regional variations in the overall poll results demonstrate that public opinion in the provincial cities of Cuenca, in the southern highlands, and Portoviejo, inland from Manta and the central coast, is more negative than in Guayaquil, Manta or Quito, and that in Cuenca only 26 percent has heard of a U.S. assistance program (that figure is 74 percent for Portoviejo, a byproduct of its close proximity to Manta and our FOL outreach efforts there). Although the Mission has a number of positive programs in the Cuenca area, including USAID economic growth programs, Peace Corps volunteers, PL-480 projects, TIP programs and collaboration with Cuenca's Binational Center, the poll shows that the Mission needs to increase its messaging in Ecuador's third largest city, regional hub for the part of the country which has the largest number of denied visa cases and sends the largest number of illegal migrants to the U.S. We will design a specific plan for engagement with Cuenca and Southern sierra public opinion through Post's interagency outreach committee, to include more public speaking, media interviews, cultural and youth programming, publicity for Mission assistance programs, consular outreach and a Milgroup humanitarian exercise. A similar, but smaller, effort will be made to educate publics in Portoviejo about USG assistance to the coastal region. Continue Youth Outreach ¶5. The poll showed that 59 percent of the 18-24 year-old cohort responded no to the question "Do you consider the U.S. a friend of Ecuador," while the 25-39 year-old cohort tied at 46 percent, and the 40 plus cohort responded 54 percent yes and 35 percent no. The Mission has been using its three GRI positions extensively to conduct TD outreach to university audiences in Quito, and to a lesser extent in surrounding cities and in Guayaquil. In light of the poll results, we will expand these efforts to more universities and more cities. Show Convergence of U.S. and Ecuadorian National Interests ¶6. When asked whether they agreed that the U.S. "shares some objectives with the Correa government," or "helps Ecuador protect its sovereignty," only 36 and 39 percent, respectively, answered yes. We believe this indicates that despite showing support for individual USG bilateral assistance programs such as counternarcotics and anti-crime, portions of the Ecuadorian public do not accept that there can be overlap between the U.S. and Ecuador national interests. This attitude inhibits forming an opinion of the U.S. as a friend of Ecuador, as these persons believe that the U.S. preference for protecting its own national interests precludes it from finding common ground with Ecuador. To counteract this, the Mission will formulate and use public messages that show how U.S. and Ecuadorian national interests converge, such as in the areas of counternarcotics, open-markets, poverty reduction and other policy areas. ¶7. Comment: As described in reftels, the Mission's TD strategy is to change attitudes and create new leaders in Ecuador by expanding our transformational activities with new audiences and leveraging much more outreach by the entire Mission. Using the poll to measure our progress has validated our TD strategy and exposed areas of opportunity, and will guide how we apply our TD and PD efforts over the medium-term future. The Mission will conduct a follow-up poll in six months to continue to measure progress, and will also use these results to inform the FY10 MSP. End Comment. JEWELL