MDC LEADERSHIP GROWING DISCONNECTED FROM HOME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000921 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2018 TAGS: PREL SF ZI SUBJECT: MDC LEADERSHIP GROWING DISCONNECTED FROM HOME PRETORIA 00000921 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an d (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. MDC Advisor Kathi Walther (protect) on 30 April revealed to POLOFF that the Johannesburg-based MDC leadership does not have a concrete plan for moving ahead, is growing alienated from MDC members in Harare, and is suffering from serious cash flow problems. The MDC leadership believes a run-off the worst-case scenario, and is seriously considering the idea of a government of national unity (GNU). However, details have not yet been worked out and not everyone is on board. Walther assessed that most MDC leaders are open to the idea (which still has to be fleshed out),but believes those on the front-line inside Zimbabwe -- the youth, activists, civil society, victims of political violence -- would have to be convinced. More to the point, the devil is likely not in the details, but in the overarching question of who would lead a GNU since many ruling stalwarts would prefer a Mugabe-led GNU (at least at first),while the MDC would prefer a Tsvangirai-led GNU. It is not clear how this impasse could be resolved, but to do so would require extensive negotiations. END SUMMARY. -------------- LEADERSHIP DISCONNECTED FROM GRASSROOTS -------------- ¶2. (C) On 30 April, POLOFF met with MDC advisor Kathi Walther (protect) to discuss MDC's immediate plans for the future. Walther said she and another MDC advisor were discussing exactly that late last night, but did not seem to have a specific plan. She admitted the party needs a way forward because there is a growing disconnect between MDC members on the ground and the MDC leadership in Johannesburg. As an example, Walther said that MDC members in Zimbabwe have been convinced by state-run media that there will be a run-off and consequently are preparing. Walther was incredulous that MDC members would think a run-off was even a viable option given the current circumstances, especially since MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai and MDC Spokesperson Tendai Biti have publicly stated they will not participate in a run-off unless conditions change drastically. (NOTE: Sydney Masamvu also told POLOFF on 25 April that MDC MPs in Zimbabwe have complained to him that they have received no direction from MDC leadership and are unsure of what they are supposed to be doing. END NOTE) -------------- -------------- NOT EVERYONE ON BOARD FOR GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The idea of a government of national unity, which Walther referred to as a "government of national healing (GNU)," has been discussed, but has not been universally accepted by all MDC members. Walther said the MDC intended to hold a "workshop" to flesh out the idea on 28 April, but that the workshop was not as "robust" as it should have been because many MDC members went instead to meet ANC President Jacob Zuma. To date, the MDC envisions a GNU with 18 cabinet positions to be split among ZANU and MDC according to the percentage of votes won in the election. According to Walther, the MDC originally considered only 15 positions but expanded it to 18 after the inclusion of Mutumbara's MDC faction on 28 April. Walther could not remember which ministries would stay or be streamlined but promised to find Qministries would stay or be streamlined but promised to find out. She also said that Tsvangirai firmly believes that the Ministry of Defense should stay with ZANU-PF, something she knows will not go over well with many who will argue they have been main perpetrators of violence against the MDC. ¶4. (C) Tsvangirai, Biti, and Welshman Ncube are all in favor of a GNU, she believes. However, she has her doubts about Roy Bennett, whose stance has recently hardened. She described him as "more emotional, than rational" these days, adding that "Roy has held more dead bodies and spent more time in jail than any other MDC leader so his outlook is different." She also believes that "people on the front-line" inside Zimbabwe -- the youth, civic groups, MDC activists, victims of political violence -- would not be keen on the idea, but ultimately could be persuaded by Tsvangirai who is still well-respected for his courage. ¶5. (C) As for ZANU-PF members being keen on the idea of a GNU, Walther could not name anyone in Mugabe's inner circle who would be willing to join a GNU and/or acceptable to MDC. She added that Bennett had convinced a significant number of PRETORIA 00000921 002.2 OF 002 ZANU-PF MPs to join a transitional government the week after the 29 March election, but that now he is unsure since many MPs who were previously willing to come over are now too scared. (NOTE: Walther also said some MDC MPs are also scared and that some have requested to leave Zimbabwe. END NOTE) -------------- MDC HURTING FOR CASH -------------- ¶6. (C) Walther told POLOFF repeatedly over the past week that the MDC is cash-strapped. Bennett budgeted for the election, but did not anticipate the results would be delayed this long. The lack of funding, she said, is starting to seriously affect their day-to-day operations. As an example, she said that they cannot print the latest (fourth) edition of Tsvangirai's "Presidential Newsletter," which is distributed to MDC members in Zimbabwe, because they have run out of paper and ink. (NOTE: Walther also added that in addition to running out of paper, computers and documents that were taken away during the 25 April raid on MDC headquarters in Harare also has hurt their operations. For example, she said she wanted to send out congratulatory letters to all new MDC MPs, but that no one could provide her with a complete list of names since they were on a computer that was confiscated. END NOTE) -------------- EMBASSY HARARE COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Walther is correct that there is a growing disconnect between MDC Johannesburg leadership and the MDC on the ground in Harare. This is largely due to the continued absence of Tsvangirai from Zimbabwe. There is apparently little SIPDIS communication between Tsvangirai and South African-based brain trust of Strive Masiyiwa, Roy Bennett, and Walther (supplemented by Melinda Farris and Tendai Biti when they are in Johannesburg) and MDC leaders in Harare. As to a GNU, the devil is not in the details but in the overarching question of who would lead a GNU. Elements of the ruling part have expressed interest in a GNU, but with Mugabe remaining in office for a period of time. A Tsvangirai-led GNU would be unacceptable to them. Conversely, the MDC would expect, based on election results, Tsvangirai to lead a GNU. It is not clear how this impasse could be resolved, but to do so would undoubtedly require extensive negotiations. ¶8. (C) It appears that the MDC and Tsvangirai at this point in time are intending to boycott a runoff election because of the ongoing violence. There are, however, Mugabe opponents who believe the MDC should participate in an election, and that it would have a good chance of success. Mutambara faction secretary-general Welshman Ncube told diplomats on 29 April that he believed the MDC could win a runoff election, despite the violence, due to strong and growing anti-Mugabe sentiment. While he supported participation in such an election, he acknowledged that the final decision would be made by Tsvangirai and his MDC faction, and that the Mutambara faction would go along. Ncube noted that the two factions were not reunited; Mutumbara and his supporters had agreed to support Tsvangirai in a runoff election, but beyond that, including relations in parliament, everything was subject to negotiation. BALL