MDC UNDECIDED ABOUT RUNOFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000812 SIPDIS SIPDIS PLEASE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KHUM KDEM SF ZI SUBJECT: MDC UNDECIDED ABOUT RUNOFF PRETORIA 00000812 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. MDC advisor Kathi Walters (strictly protect) told POLOFF on 15 April that MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai is still in Johannesburg, having received death threats. She does not believe Tsvangirai is afraid to go back, but could not say if or when he was going to return. Today, Tsvangirai and other MDC leaders are in a workshop to decide on the party's strategy for moving forward, specifically whether they should participate in a runoff or boycott. Personally, she does not believe in participating because she does not think voters will turn out for a "5th rigged election." Walters, who was deeply involved in the parallel voting center, also admitted that it suffered from lack of preparation and may not have the impact MDC hoped. END SUMMARY. -------------- RUNOFF OR BOYCOTT? STILL UNDECIDED -------------- ¶2. (C) MDC advisor Kathi Walters (strictly protect) told PolOff on 15 April that MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai and other officials were in a "workshop" in Johannesburg trying to decide if they should boycott a runoff or participate, and if so, under what conditions. (BIO NOTE: Walters, who resides in South Africa, is a former IRI consultant and has worked officially and unofficially with the MDC for the past 8 years. END NOTE) When asked why this is only being discussed now, she said, "We never imagined a run-off would be under these conditions." However, not soon after, she said she personally believes the MDC should not participate, saying it would be "useless" because people would not come out to vote. "A run-off would make the fifth election in which Zimbabweans have voted and the election rigged," she said matter of factly. ¶3. (C) However, Walters said that if they do decide to participate, the MDC would probably want to have an outside observer, like SADC, actually run the election -- from printing and distributing the ballots to actually counting them. As for uniting opposition forces for a runoff, she said the two MDC camps are "virtually reunited" and that the MDC does not need Makoni's votes since he took most of his votes away from MDC, not ZANU-PF, anyway. (COMMENT: She said she was next to Tsvangirai on 2 April when he called Makoni to ask if he wanted to make a joint statement with him; she said Makoni flatly refused. END COMMENT) -------------- WEAKNESSES OF PARALLEL VOTING CENTER -------------- ¶4. (C) POLOFF also asked why the parallel voting center did not have the intended impact. Walters admitted they waited too late to get it going. She believes they had about 80 percent of votes captured, but could not say Tsvangirai won definitively without having 100 percent of votes unless Tsvangirai's numbers were higher. She also admitted that SIPDIS getting ahold of individual polling agents was difficult, especially with the phone lines in Zimbabwe being so unreliable. She fears now that there may be little proof of MDC votes as most data came in through text messages, but does not know if this information was captured. She said she Qdoes not know if this information was captured. She said she hopes that MDC Headquarters gathered and kept copies of voter results outside individual polling stations. -------------- TSVANGIRAI RECEIVES DEATH THREATS SIPDIS -------------- ¶5. (C) Asked about Tsvangirai's busy travel schedule, Walters said that Tsvangirai is still in Johannesburg and has been receiving death threats. She said some MDC members believe that Tsvangirai would be killed by the military once he steps foot back in Harare, but that Tsvangirai feels comfortable going back. When asked if/when he was returning to Harare, she said she thinks he should go back, but then quoted MDC spokesperson Tendai Biti, who apparently said "(Morgan) is his own man," implying he'll return when he wants. PRETORIA 00000812 002 OF 002 -------------- ZERO CONFIDENCE IN MBEKI -------------- ¶6. (U) Walters, who was in Lusaka for the SADC conference with MDC leaders, said that MDC has now lost all confidence in Mbeki, but that the MDC is pleased with recent ANC comments, especially from ANC President Jacob Zuma. She believes the ANC has given Mbeki his marching orders and could threaten him with a vote of no confidence if Mbeki does not synchronize his views on Zimbabwe with the ANC leadership. (NOTE: Members of the ANC national working committee announced on 15 April that contrary to Mbeki's statements at the SADC summit, Zimbabwe is in a crisis (septel). END NOTE) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) It is no surprise MDC has finally lost all confidence in Mbeki. After all, Mbeki's statement during the SADC conference that "there is no crisis in Zimbabwe" has unleashed a flurry of editorials worldwide condemning Mbeki for turning a blind eye. Mbeki's rivals in the ANC, namely the Zuma camp, seem to be taking advantage of the situation while Mbeki is weak. However, whether their vocal support is genuine or orchestrated, or more importantly, whether their words can translate into action (i.e., moving Mbeki on Zimbabwe policy) remains to be seen. BOST