FNL FEELS SHUT OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000799

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S, AF/C

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2018
TAGS: PREL BY SF
SUBJECT: FNL FEELS SHUT OUT

REF: A. PRETORIA 250


B. PRETORIA 428

C. PRETORIA 775

Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).


1. (C) On 10 April, FNL-insider Jan Van Eck expressed concern
to PolOff about stalled negotiations between the FNL rebels,
the SAG, and the GoB, describing the entire Burundi
facilitiation process as "hostile." Van Eck, who said he
talks to the FNL by phone almost everyday, said that the good
will and optimism built up earlier this year between the
parties have evaporated (Ref A). "The FNL jumped at the
first sign of good news and chose to accept South Africa's
continued mediation, but in the end, the historical distrust
between (SAG Great Lakes Envoy Kingsley) Mamabolo and the FNL
cannot be overcome," he said.


2. (C) Van Eck believes the biggest problem facing the FNL
right now is the "hijacking of the political directorate by
Mamabolo (Ref B)." Van Eck applauded the original members of
the directorate, especially AU Ambassador Mamadou Bah and UN
Deputy Special Representative Youssef Mahmoud, both of whom
he believes earned the trust of the FNL. However, according
to Van Eck, the SAG facilitation team is now taking full
control of the directorate. He said everything is being
routed through this directorate, while "(FNL Leader Agathon)
Rwasa is just sitting around, receiving no foreign visitors."
(COMMENT: Contrary to Mamabolo's view, Van Eck believes that
the goal of the political directorate was to reexamine
contentious issues that the SAG and GoB consider off the
table. The FNL and GoB have been included in the
directorate, but Van Eck said there has been only one meeting
where the FNL was invited. END COMMENT)


3. (C) Citing other concerns, Van Eck said the FNL is growing
and "becoming a major destabilizer." He admitted that "there
are definitely some guilty FNL guys, but the government's
attempts to play down the FNL is turning them into martyrs."
He also said that FNL commanders are furious with Rwasa
because they feel "he's given them nothing" and are growing
restless. Rwasa will not be able to control them forever, he
warned. As for the FNL's rejection of immunity via executive
order (Ref C),Van Eck said it will remain an issue because
"immunity doesn't guarantee that they won't be harassed and
the FNL doesn't trust the South African batallion to protect
them."


4. (C) As for next steps, Van Eck suspects the SAG will call
for a regional summit. Van Eck is skeptical this will be
effective because he does not believe most SADC countries
understand or care about Burundi. He also suspects the SAG
will manipulate the process by courting the international
community in advance to get them on the same page as the
facilitation before a summit even begins.
BOST