ZIMBABWE NEXT STEPS: INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS MAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000787

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV SF ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE NEXT STEPS: INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS MAY
DIFFER FROM ZIMBABWEAN VIEWS


PRETORIA 00000787 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Don Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b)
and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. On 10 April, PolOff attended a conference
entitled, "Building International Consensus on Zimbabwe,"
during which diplomats, academics, and Zimbabwean civil
society members shared similar interpretations of the 29
March election, but differed on a way forward. While
everyone agreed that voting day was peaceful, no one defended
the delaying of results, which the ANC's Head of
International Affairs called a "technical coup." Looking
ahead, international guests seemed to support the idea of a
transitional government, while Zimbabweans on the panel
strongly argued that such an arrangement would nullify their
votes. END SUMMARY.

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ANALYSES OF ELECTION AND AFTERMATH
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2. (SBU) On 10 April, PolOff attended a conference entitled,
"Building International Consensus on Zimbabwe," during which
diplomats, academics, and civil society sat on a panel to
share similar interpretations of the 29 March election, but
differed on a way forward. Every speaker recognized that
Zimbabweans voted on 29 March without harassment, but no one
defended the delay in announcing the results. Isabella
Matambanadzo, Open Society Institute of South Africa's
(OSISA) Program Director for Zimbabwe, argued that by not
releasing the results, "Mugabe is holding our votes hostage."
Ebrahim Ebrahim, ANC Head of International Affairs, called
the delay a "technical coup," adding that Zimbabwe has
suffered from a complete judicial collapse since the
elections. "Lawyers are afraid to defend and judges are
afraid to hear cases," he said.


3. (SBU) As for the results declared thus far, Matambanadzo
said the fact that ZANU-PF won 97 parliamentary seats means
that ZANU-PF remains significant and cannot be ignored.
Zimbabwean academic Dr. Ibbo Mandaza, however, opined that
ZANU-PF rigged the parliamentary results to give them greater
bargaining power after the election. He also asserted that
in a truly free and fair election, Mugabe would not have
received more than 4 percent of the presidential vote because
"it's impossible more people voted for Mugabe than Makoni."
(BIO NOTE: Mandaza was a primary instigator of Makoni's
candidacy and remains a Makoni advisor. END NOTE)


4. (SBU) Many speakers also focused on MDC weaknesses.
Professor Brian Raftopoulos of the Solidarity Peace Trust
pointed out that the MDC could have won at least nine more
seats in Parliament if the two MDC factions had united before
the election. Mandaza criticized the MDC for declaring
victory without announcing actual results from the parallel
voting center. Had the MDC done this, he argued, the MDC may
have preempted the current situation. Instead, Mandaza
complained that the MDC is counting on South Africa to help
it, even though the SAG has no capacity to do so, and on
SADC. Mandaza concluded by criticizing all opposition
parties, saying they should have coalesced by now and
included some more reform-minded ZANU-PF members. Only the
Swedish Ambassador to Zimbabwe, Sten Rylander, had kind words
for MDC, pointing out that they have "the moral high ground
having won," but later also admitted that the MDC's weak
links to regional leaders is a weakness.
Qlinks to regional leaders is a weakness.

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HOME GROWN SOLUTION THE ONLY WAY
--------------


5. (SBU) The European Commission's Ambassador to Zimbabwe,
Xavier Marchal, said that the only solution to Zimbabwe's
problems must be "home grown," but then emphasized the role
of the regional and international community in the process.
He laid out two possibilities: (1) respect the current
Constitution, which calls for a runoff if no party receives
50 percent; or, (2) have a managed transition in which the
presidential election would be annulled and a new government
and new constitution put in place. (NOTE: A third scenario,
in which Mugabe declares himself the winner by a majority
vote was not discussed. END NOTE) If there is a runoff,
Xavier advised, international observers should return
immediately and in greater numbers. He also said that SADC
should demand that its recommendations be implemented
immediately, including allowing greater media freedom and
access for all parties, controlling formal and informal

PRETORIA 00000787 002.2 OF 002


campaigning, condemning security forces threatening
pronouncements, and verifying voter rolls.


6. (SBU) All international members of the panel seemed to
support the idea of a transitional government of national
unity, while Zimbabwean panel members uniformly did not.
Acknowledging the possibility, Ambassador Rylander emphasized
that "(such a transitional government) must be on their own
terms." Ebrahim also argued for a transitional government,
suggesting that the MDC is open to the idea. Ignoring
possible constitutional requirements, Ebrahim advised that a
runoff should be avoided because "ZANU-PF could unleash
violence and create a very ugly situation."


7. (C) Zimbabwean civil society members, however, argued that
a transitional government would ignore the will of the
people. Richard Smith of the Zimbabwe Solidarity Forum
pointed out that the real danger is an imposed solution like
Kenya's current government, "which is falling apart."
Matambanadzo echoed Smith's comments, adding that Zimbabweans
also are not interested in a runoff, "which is an insane
option since results weren't free and fair before or after
the actual election," and that "Zimbabweans are only
interested in results."

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IMMUNITY FOR HARD-LINERS POTENTIAL PROBLEM
--------------


8. (SBU) Whatever the solution, both Ebrahim and Rylander
argued that it must involve an honorable exit for Mugabe
without retribution. Ebrahim, however, cautioned that the
people surrounding Mugabe will remain a problem. "So Mugabe
gets a farm, amnesty, etc. Others won't and will fight to
the end," he said. (NOTE: Mugabe's immunity was hotly
discussed during the break, with most international observers
noting that Nigeria's handover of Charles Taylor after he was
guaranteed immunity will make it difficult for anyone to
persuade Mugabe that an immunity arrangement is ironclad.
END NOTE)

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SADC UTILITY QUESTIONED
--------------


9. (SBU) Raftopoulos argued that SADC's credibility was
undermined because the elections have not expressed the will
of the Zimbabwean people and yet, SADC has already endorsed
them as free and fair. Rylander also told the audience that
the EU has purposefully avoided speaking out on the issue to
give South Africa and SADC space and to not exacerbating the
situation, but also intimated a SADC blessing will not be
enough for the international community. "We (the
international community) will need to have confidence in any
new government before we reengage," he warned. British High
Commissioner to South Africa Paul Boateng agreed, adding that
the UK has not, as rumored, already agreed to allocate one
billion pounds to Zimbabwe's recovery.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) Despite the international community's attempts to be
sensitive to Zimbabwean desires, it was obvious after the
three-and-half-hour long session that Zimbabwean panel
members may not be on the same page as those from the greater
international community. Also noteworthy, Kenya's
transitional government and the problems it is facing appear
to be affecting Zimbabweans view of the viability of a unity
government.
BOST