AUSTRALIAN ASSESSMENT OF ZIMBABWE DEVELOPMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000744 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2018 TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM SF ZI SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN ASSESSMENT OF ZIMBABWE DEVELOPMENTS Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Acting Australian High Commissioner Jane Lambert (protect) on 08 April called POLOFF to share the points she planned to make to her Foreign Minister, who was expected to call later that afternoon for a Zimbabwe update. Lambert said she would emphasize that her contact within the MDC told her that Tsvangirai came away from his meeting with ANC President Jacob Zuma on 07 April "very pleased." However, Lambert said she would caution Canberra that Zuma is a chameleon and could have promised Tsvangirai anything given Zuma's penchant for telling people what they want to hear. According to her contact, Tsvangirai's visit was part of the MDC's new strategy of pressuring regional leaders, especially the ANC (not President Mbeki),to urge the release of election results. (NOTE: Zuma publicly criticized Zimbabwe on 08 April, saying "keeping the nation (and international community) in suspense was wrong" and that "I don't think it augurs very well." END NOTE) ¶2. (C) Lambert also confirmed that SAG officials are pushing for a transitional government. However, Lambert is worried that both MDC and ZANU-PF leaders are becoming increasingly "rigid" and will be less and less amenable to a unity government the more time passes. She believes that the fact that MDC has stopped making any overtures toward ZANU-PF is one indication of their growing inflexibility. MDC Treasurer Roy Bennett, especially, seems to be hardening his stance, she said, saying that Bennett was in a "feisty mood." Bennett told her on 08 April that the MDC would only agree to a run-off if the UN observed; otherwise, they are prepared to walk away. MDC is also going to start demanding that SADC be held accountable for its decision to bless the election. ¶3. (C) As for South Africa's role, Lambert's assessment for Canberra is South Africa will eventually "kick the can down the road," as they have done before with Zimbabwe. She believes that South Africa wants to avoid at all costs having Zimbabwe come before the UN Security Council while it is holding the UNSC Presidency. Lambert argued that South Africa will be put in the uncomfortable position of either being seen as ignoring the current crisis or criticizing Mugabe and ZANU-PF, in which case South Africa will be viewed by other African nations as "doing the bidding of the West." BOST