SAG OFFICIAL FAVORS TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT IN

1. (C) DFA's Great Lakes Special Envoy Ambassador Kingsley
Mamabolo, who headed South Africa's SADC election observation
team in Zimbabwe, expressed frustration to PolCouns and
PolOff on 08 April about the current Zimbabwe crisis. He
started the conversation with the admission that "it looks
bad." Though everyone was "very tolerant" on election day,
Mamabolo acknowledged he could see how both ZANU-PF and MDC
supporters could have rigged results either before or after
the actual election. Mamabolo believes there may be some
truth in Mugabe's statements that his votes were undercounted
by ZEC officials, since some could be among the many ZANU-PF
members who are "jumping ship to the MDC." He also believes
that there is some truth in MDC's accusations of ZANU-PF's
role in ballot stuffing, placing deceased voters on rolls,
and giving out plots of land so people could double-vote. In
this sense, Mamabolo believes that the SADC criteria for
election monitoring need to be revisited. "They are only
interested in the process on the actual day," he said,
implying that this was not the only important criterion.



2. (C) The SAG is pushing Mugabe for the results, according
to Mamabolo, even though he himself believes Morgan
Tsvangirai won the presidential vote. However, since neither

SIPDIS
side won a clear majority, he said the SAG was pushing for a
transitional unity government without a run-off election, but
that "they're not listening." (COMMENT: It was not clear to
whom exactly Mamabolo was referring but PolOff was told on 08
April by numerous sources that both MDC and ZANU-PF are
becoming less and less flexible (septel). END COMMENT) When
asked whether Mugabe would be included in a unity government,
he replied "that would be up to MDC and ZANU-PF to work out,
but ideally no." However, he admitted that some ZANU-PF
members are ready to join a MDC-ZANU-PF transitional
government. When asked about South Africa's contingency
planning in the event Mugabe declares victory, Mamabolo
simply said "it's been very difficult for us."



3. (C) As an aside, Mamabolo complained about the inclusion
of opposition parliamentarians in South Africa's elections
monitoring team. He accused Democratic Alliance observers of
"trying to score cheap political points," and noted that
their individual public criticisms were not helpful to the
election mission. He believes that all South African
observers should have put aside personal political
differences, worked as a collective, and obeyed the rule they
had all agreed to and not spoken to the media. "I would have
liked to have expelled them if there was more time," he said.
He also said that he will advise the SAG against including
parliamentarians in the next SADC observer mission.
BOST