ZUMA ADVISOR TRIES TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000729 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR P, AF, AF/S, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM SF SUBJECT: ZUMA ADVISOR TRIES TO LOWER EXPECTATIONS ON ZIMBABWE REF: PRETORIA 727 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) On 08 April, ANC President Zuma advisor Mo Shaik told PolOff that the international community should not expect ANC President Jacob Zuma to resolve the Zimbabwe crisis. When PolOff mentioned that the extensive media coverage surrounding MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai's 07 April meeting with Zuma on 7 April gives the impression that Zuma is now the point man, Shaik said "anyone who believes that is stupid....What happens in Zimbabwe will depend on Mbeki." He also added that the international community had unrealistic expectations. "What do they want us to do? Send in troops? That's simply not an option," he said. ¶2. (C) Shaik, who said he discussed Zimbabwe at length with Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad the evening before, outlined three scenarios for Zimbabwe, at least two of which would result in "chaos." First, there could be a run-off with either a legitimate MDC victory or a ZANU-PF victory which will be rigged. In his opinion, however, a free and fair election is not realistic and the international community, "especially the US Government" should recognize this. Second, Zimbabwe would "continue stumbling along, declare a state of emergency, and keep Mugabe as President." Shaik said that this option is also unacceptable as it would lead to anarchy. Last, Shaik reiterated his preferred plan of action that MDC and ZANU-PF set up a government of national unity without Mugabe (reftel). ¶3. (C) Shaik said that Zuma is steering Mbeki toward the idea of a transitional government through DepForMin Pahad, DFA Great Lakes Envoy Ambassador Kingsley Mamabolo, and others in government (septel). Shaik said the most the ANC can do is criticize Mugabe and that ANC Spokesperson (and former DFA DDF for Africa: Multilateral) Jessie Duarte told him yesterday that the ANC is ready to speak out. When asked what leverage that would give Zuma, Shaik laughed, and said "it won't, and that's the point." Shaik expects the international community will give the ANC credit for speaking out, but doing so will effectively eliminate the ANC as potential negotiators given that ZANU-PF would then view them as biased. Shaik also sees the removal of the ANC as a potential negotiator as a way out for Zuma, whom he believes is being set up by failure "by members of (US Government) who do not want to see him become South Africa's President." BOST