MBEKI AVOIDS FIRST ANC NEC MEETING; ZUMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 000066

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SF
SUBJECT: MBEKI AVOIDS FIRST ANC NEC MEETING; ZUMA
SUPPORTERS DOMINATE NEW NATIONAL WORKING COMMITTEE

REF: A. 07 PRETORIA 4217

B. 07 PRETORIA 4262

C. 07 PRETORIA 4261

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Classified By: Chief of Mission Eric M. Bost. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In its first meeting since newly-elected
ANC President Jacob Zuma's victory at Polokwane, the new ANC
National Executive Committee elected a National Working
Committee comprised almost entirely of core Zuma supporters
that collectively are more leftist and less experienced than
the Mbeki-era NWC members. The formal ANC statement
summarizing the meeting discusses the 28 December indictment
of Zuma on fraud and corruption charges at length. While it
says all the right things about independence of the judiciary
and commitment to the rule of law, it also goes well beyond
prior ANC statements on this topic to express "grave concern"
over the timing of the charges. The statement confirms that
"the ANC President" will be the ANC candidate for national
president in 2009 and reports the establishment of a balanced
committee of party heavyweights charged with producing a
"detailed factual report on the arms deal" to inform future
NEC decisions related to the case. The statement also
includes a short expression of concern over the situation in
Kenya, urging all parties "to cooperate in the process of
finding a just, peaceful and lasting solution to this
crisis". President Mbeki, now an ex officio NEC member, and
Mbeki loyalist Joel Netshitenzhe did not attend the NEC
meeting, claiming prior commitments. Local press coverage of
the meeting has focused mainly on their absence and on
reactions to the Zuma indictment, particularly new ANC
Treasurer Mathews Phosa's subsequent public comment that "the
case is politically inspired". END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The new 86-member ANC National Executive Committee,
elected December 19 at the party national conference in
Polokwane (Ref A),met for the first time on Monday, 07
January to elect a new National Working Committee (NWC) and
set tasks for the coming months. A formal ANC statement
issued on 08 January highlighted decisions taken (detailed
below). In a likely reaction to public statements by
President Thabo Mbeki reminding that he remains in charge of
the South African Government until 2009, the statement
pointedly noted on the topic of party unity that the NEC
"reaffirmed the fundamental point that there is only one ANC,
with one programme of democratic transformation, and one
national leadership collective."

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NWC Membership
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3. (U) The following NEC members were elected to serve on
the National Working Committee (NWC),which was expanded by
an additional five members to reflect the expansion of the
NEC itself approved at Polokwane:

Collins CHABANE
Bathabile DLAMINI
Jessie DUARTE
Tina JOEMAT-PETTERSSON
Pallo JORDAN
Ncumisa KONDLO
Fikile MBALULA
Nomaindia MFEKETO
Angie MOTSHEKGA
Nathi MTHETHWA
Maite NKOANE-MASHABANE
Siphiwe NYANDA
Blade NZIMANDE
Dina PULE
Jeff RADEBE
Susan SHABANGU
Lindiwe SISULU
Max SISULU
Makhenkesi STOFILE
Tony YENGENI

In addition to the above elected members, the six ANC
leadership positions also are on the NWC along with a
representative of the ANC Women's League and the ANC Youth
League. The NWC subsequently will form a number of working
subcommittees from among its membership.
Qsubcommittees from among its membership.

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4. (C) This new group is almost entirely pro-Zuma and, with
the purging of many senior government figures, decidedly less
experienced than its predecessor. There are only six Mbeki
administration officials among the new NWC membership: Arts
and Culture Minister Pallo Jordan, Transport Minister Jeff
Radebe, Housing Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, Sports Minister
Makhenkesi Stofile, Deputy Minister for Safety and Security
Susan Shabangu, and Department of Foreign Affairs DDG: Africa
Multilateral Jessie Duarte. South African Communist Party
(SACP) head Blade Nzimande and the heads of the ANC Youth and
Women's Leagues are among the new members -- no doubt in
recognition of the support they provided Zuma at Polokwane.
Many of the other newcomers are relative unknowns from the
provinces who also may have been rewarded for turning out the
pro-Zuma vote. Some, such as former Member of Parliament and
convicted felon Tony Yengeni, are former officials whose
tenures were clouded by scandal.

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Zuma Charges
--------------


5. (C) A large chunk of the official ANC statement was
devoted to the National Prosecuting Authority's December 28
indictment of Zuma on 16 counts of racketeering, corruption,
money laundering and fraud, which are linked to a
multibillion dollar arms tender issued by the SAG in the late
1990's (Ref B). The text included responsible, measured
language affirming the independence of the South African
judiciary, respect for the rule of law and the constitutional
mandate of concerned governmental institutions. It also made
clear that the ANC "seeks no special treatment for its
President; only fairness and justice." However, in stark
contrast to ANC statements on the case issued under Mbeki's
leadership, the statement displayed a clear bias toward Zuma,
underscoring the NEC's "concern and grave misgivings about
the timing of these charges, and the general conduct of the
NPA in this case, including inconsistency in the application
of its mandate and leaking of information to the media." The
text included an unequivocal expression of solidarity with
Zuma "in these trying times" and "confirmed that the ANC
President will lead the ANC election campaign as the
organisation's candidate for president of South Africa in the
2009 election". (COMMENT: This last item is likely intended
as a rebuttal of Mbeki's prior public comments asserting that
ascension to the ANC presidency does not automatically
guarantee one will become the party's candidate for national
president. END COMMENT.)


6. (C) Subsequent media reporting on this section of the
statement went well beyond the text, asserting the ANC had
officially determined that the indictment was politically
motivated. These reports probably stemmed from a comment
offered to the press by new ANC Treasurer Mathews Phosa
following the official NEC proceedings in which Phosa stated
"There is a political spin on the case and the ANC knows that
the case is politically inspired." (COMMENT: Other NEC
members may very well have echoed these sentiments in
off-the-record comments of their own. The public position of
the Zuma camp continues to be that the case reflects a
political conspiracy to undermine Zuma and many Zuma
supporters are quite strident in advocating this view.)

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Arms Deal Report
QArms Deal Report
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7. (SBU) As a corollary to the above position of support for
Zuma, the official statement indicated that the NEC
established a committee "to look at the practical form this
support will take." The committee is charged with producing
"a detailed factual report on the arms deal to enable the NEC
to apply its mind on the issues and provide leadership."
This eight-member committee is comprised of:

Kgalema MOTLANTHE (current ANC Deputy President, former ANC
Secretary General under Mbeki)

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Mathews PHOSA (current ANC Treasurer General, former Premier
of Mpumalanga)
Jeremy CRONIN (SACP Deputy Secretary General)
Sankie MTHEMBI-MAHANYELE (former Housing Minister and former
ANC Deputy Secretary General)

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Siphiwe NYANDA (former Chief of the SANDF and former MK Chief)
Naledi PANDOR (current Education Minister)
Cyril RAMAPHOSA (businessman and former contender for the ANC
Presidency)
Lindiwe SISULU (current Housing Minister)


8. (C) As opposed to the newly-elected NWC membership, these
individuals are true ANC heavyweights representing both the
Mbeki and Zuma camps. This indicates the committee is
intended to do serious business which will be viewed as
legitimate by all ANC members. There is a wealth of
information already available on the arms deal, prompting
many -- including opposition ID head Patricia de Lille who
led successful demands for an investigation into the scandal
-- to question whether any further reports are needed.
However, the committee's establishment may be an outgrowth of
longstanding implied threats by the Zuma camp that they will
reveal uncomfortable facts about Mbeki's involvement in the
deal if his government persists in Zuma's prosecution.

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Kenya
--------------


9. (U) The statement contained the following brief reaction
to the post-elections violence in Kenya:

"The NEC expressed its deep concern at the situation in
Kenya, which has severe political, social, economic and
humanitarian implications. We are concerned in particular
about the loss of life, homes and livelihoods that have been
visited upon ordinary Kenyans in recent days. (The NEC)
urged all parties to cooperate in the process of finding a
just, peaceful and lasting solution to this crisis."

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Other Issues
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10. (SBU) The statement reported that the NEC's annual
planning conference ("lekgotla") is scheduled for 18-20
January. (NOTE: This timing should place the NEC lekgotla
immediately prior to the annual Cabinet lekgotla and a few
weeks prior to the opening of parliament and President
Mbeki's 08 February State of the Nation address.) It also
reminded that the ANC, led by Zuma, will celebrate its 96th
anniversary at a 12 January rally at a local Tshwane sports
stadium. Approximately 20,000 people are expected to attend.
Finally, the statement expressed condolences on the deaths
of several "valued cadres", including South African diplomat
Mlungisi Sisulu who died on 03 December of cerebral malaria
while posted to Sudan. (BIO NOTE: Sisulu's stepmother,
Elinor, is a respected activist on Zimbabwe and a close
Embassy contact. His father, Max, is an NEC and NWC member
(see paras 3-4) and a senior executive with SASOL. The
Ambassador has sent a personal condolence note to Max and
Elinor Sisulu and their family.)

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Mbeki Bows Out
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11. (C) Zuma's overwhelming dominance of the new ANC
leadership structures was underscored by the notable absence
of ex officio NEC member Thabo Mbeki and his uniformly
respected policy advisor Joel Netshitenzhe from this
inaugural meeting. The media noticed this absence almost
immediately and clamored for an explanation. A terse
official response indicated that scheduling conflicts
rendered their attendance impossible. (COMMENT: While the
Chinese Foreign Minister was in town for bilateral meetings
that day, ForMin Dlamini-Zuma bore the brunt of that visit.
It seems unlikely that both Mbeki and Netshitenzhe were
prevented from making even a token appearance at this crucial
Qprevented from making even a token appearance at this crucial
ANC event. It is unclear whether their decision not to
attend is linked to Ref C rumors of a planned showdown over
Mbeki's unwillingness to take direction from Zuma. END
COMMENT.)

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Comment
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12. (C) The results of this first meeting of the Zuma-led
ANC NEC reveal several things. Zuma clearly has control over
all party structures. It appears he intends to use the full
force of the ANC to defend himself against pending corruption
charges and will meet Mbeki head on wherever his authority is
challenged. The statement language implicitly questioning
the integrity of the NPA is somewhat disturbing in terms of
the broader effect it could have on the population's trust in
law enforcement institutions, but given the strong views of
many Zuma supporters on the illegitimacy of the Zuma case,
this language likely was considered to be "moderate". While
the statement clearly was intended to endorse Zuma as the
ANC's candidate for president in 2009, the fact that the
wording refers not to Zuma by name, but rather to "the ANC
President" gives the party a face-saving out if Zuma should
be convicted prior to the elections and leaves the door open
to ANC Deputy President Motlanthe and others waiting in the
wings. Finally, the initial focus of a Zuma-led NEC appears
to be almost entirely internal to South Africa. While the
Kenya language is nominally helpful, it reads like a cursory
acknowledgment of a breaking development -- there is no
indication in the overall statement that thoughful discussion
of major foreign policy issues formed a significant portion
of the NEC deliberations. We will look to the upcoming 12
January ANC anniversary rally and 18-20 January planning
lekgotla for further indications of where the party is headed
in this transition year.

BOST