MBEKI AVOIDS FIRST ANC NEC MEETING; ZUMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 000066 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SF SUBJECT: MBEKI AVOIDS FIRST ANC NEC MEETING; ZUMA SUPPORTERS DOMINATE NEW NATIONAL WORKING COMMITTEE REF: A. 07 PRETORIA 4217 ¶B. 07 PRETORIA 4262 ¶C. 07 PRETORIA 4261 PRETORIA 00000066 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Chief of Mission Eric M. Bost. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In its first meeting since newly-elected ANC President Jacob Zuma's victory at Polokwane, the new ANC National Executive Committee elected a National Working Committee comprised almost entirely of core Zuma supporters that collectively are more leftist and less experienced than the Mbeki-era NWC members. The formal ANC statement summarizing the meeting discusses the 28 December indictment of Zuma on fraud and corruption charges at length. While it says all the right things about independence of the judiciary and commitment to the rule of law, it also goes well beyond prior ANC statements on this topic to express "grave concern" over the timing of the charges. The statement confirms that "the ANC President" will be the ANC candidate for national president in 2009 and reports the establishment of a balanced committee of party heavyweights charged with producing a "detailed factual report on the ARMS deal" to inform future NEC decisions related to the case. The statement also includes a short expression of concern over the situation in Kenya, urging all parties "to cooperate in the process of finding a just, peaceful and lasting solution to this crisis". President Mbeki, now an ex officio NEC member, and Mbeki loyalist Joel Netshitenzhe did not attend the NEC meeting, claiming prior commitments. Local press coverage of the meeting has focused mainly on their absence and on reactions to the Zuma indictment, particularly new ANC Treasurer Mathews Phosa's subsequent public comment that "the case is politically inspired". END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The new 86-member ANC National Executive Committee, elected December 19 at the party national conference in Polokwane (Ref A),met for the first time on Monday, 07 January to elect a new National Working Committee (NWC) and set tasks for the coming months. A formal ANC statement issued on 08 January highlighted decisions taken (detailed below). In a likely reaction to public statements by President Thabo Mbeki reminding that he remains in charge of the South African Government until 2009, the statement pointedly noted on the topic of party unity that the NEC "reaffirmed the fundamental point that there is only one ANC, with one programme of democratic transformation, and one national leadership collective." -------------- NWC Membership -------------- ¶3. (U) The following NEC members were elected to serve on the National Working Committee (NWC),which was expanded by an additional five members to reflect the expansion of the NEC itself approved at Polokwane: Collins CHABANE Bathabile DLAMINI Jessie DUARTE Tina JOEMAT-PETTERSSON Pallo JORDAN Ncumisa KONDLO Fikile MBALULA Nomaindia MFEKETO Angie MOTSHEKGA Nathi MTHETHWA Maite NKOANE-MASHABANE Siphiwe NYANDA Blade NZIMANDE Dina PULE Jeff RADEBE Susan SHABANGU Lindiwe SISULU Max SISULU Makhenkesi STOFILE Tony YENGENI In addition to the above elected members, the six ANC leadership positions also are on the NWC along with a representative of the ANC Women's League and the ANC Youth League. The NWC subsequently will form a number of working subcommittees from among its membership. Qsubcommittees from among its membership. PRETORIA 00000066 002.2 OF 004 ¶4. (C) This new group is almost entirely pro-Zuma and, with the purging of many senior government figures, decidedly less experienced than its predecessor. There are only six Mbeki administration officials among the new NWC membership: Arts and Culture Minister Pallo Jordan, Transport Minister Jeff Radebe, Housing Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, Sports Minister Makhenkesi Stofile, Deputy Minister for Safety and Security Susan Shabangu, and Department of Foreign Affairs DDG: Africa Multilateral Jessie Duarte. South African Communist Party (SACP) head Blade Nzimande and the heads of the ANC Youth and Women's Leagues are among the new members -- no doubt in recognition of the support they provided Zuma at Polokwane. Many of the other newcomers are relative unknowns from the provinces who also may have been rewarded for turning out the pro-Zuma vote. Some, such as former Member of Parliament and convicted felon Tony Yengeni, are former officials whose tenures were clouded by scandal. -------------- Zuma Charges -------------- ¶5. (C) A large chunk of the official ANC statement was devoted to the National Prosecuting Authority's December 28 indictment of Zuma on 16 counts of racketeering, corruption, money laundering and fraud, which are linked to a multibillion dollar ARMS tender issued by the SAG in the late 1990's (Ref B). The text included responsible, measured language affirming the independence of the South African judiciary, respect for the rule of law and the constitutional mandate of concerned governmental institutions. It also made clear that the ANC "seeks no special treatment for its President; only fairness and justice." However, in stark contrast to ANC statements on the case issued under Mbeki's leadership, the statement displayed a clear bias toward Zuma, underscoring the NEC's "concern and grave misgivings about the timing of these charges, and the general conduct of the NPA in this case, including inconsistency in the application of its mandate and leaking of information to the media." The text included an unequivocal expression of solidarity with Zuma "in these trying times" and "confirmed that the ANC President will lead the ANC election campaign as the organisation's candidate for president of South Africa in the 2009 election". (COMMENT: This last item is likely intended as a rebuttal of Mbeki's prior public comments asserting that ascension to the ANC presidency does not automatically guarantee one will become the party's candidate for national president. END COMMENT.) ¶6. (C) Subsequent media reporting on this section of the statement went well beyond the text, asserting the ANC had officially determined that the indictment was politically motivated. These reports probably stemmed from a comment offered to the press by new ANC Treasurer Mathews Phosa following the official NEC proceedings in which Phosa stated "There is a political spin on the case and the ANC knows that the case is politically inspired." (COMMENT: Other NEC members may very well have echoed these sentiments in off-the-record comments of their own. The public position of the Zuma camp continues to be that the case reflects a political conspiracy to undermine Zuma and many Zuma supporters are quite strident in advocating this view.) -------------- Arms Deal Report QArms Deal Report -------------- ¶7. (SBU) As a corollary to the above position of support for Zuma, the official statement indicated that the NEC established a committee "to look at the practical form this support will take." The committee is charged with producing "a detailed factual report on the ARMS deal to enable the NEC to apply its mind on the issues and provide leadership." This eight-member committee is comprised of: Kgalema MOTLANTHE (current ANC Deputy President, former ANC Secretary General under Mbeki) SIPDIS Mathews PHOSA (current ANC Treasurer General, former Premier of Mpumalanga) Jeremy CRONIN (SACP Deputy Secretary General) Sankie MTHEMBI-MAHANYELE (former Housing Minister and former ANC Deputy Secretary General) PRETORIA 00000066 003.2 OF 004 Siphiwe NYANDA (former Chief of the SANDF and former MK Chief) Naledi PANDOR (current Education Minister) Cyril RAMAPHOSA (businessman and former contender for the ANC Presidency) Lindiwe SISULU (current Housing Minister) ¶8. (C) As opposed to the newly-elected NWC membership, these individuals are true ANC heavyweights representing both the Mbeki and Zuma camps. This indicates the committee is intended to do serious business which will be viewed as legitimate by all ANC members. There is a wealth of information already available on the ARMS deal, prompting many -- including opposition ID head Patricia de Lille who led successful demands for an investigation into the scandal -- to question whether any further reports are needed. However, the committee's establishment may be an outgrowth of longstanding implied threats by the Zuma camp that they will reveal uncomfortable facts about Mbeki's involvement in the deal if his government persists in Zuma's prosecution. -------------- Kenya -------------- ¶9. (U) The statement contained the following brief reaction to the post-elections violence in Kenya: "The NEC expressed its deep concern at the situation in Kenya, which has severe political, social, economic and humanitarian implications. We are concerned in particular about the loss of life, homes and livelihoods that have been visited upon ordinary Kenyans in recent days. (The NEC) urged all parties to cooperate in the process of finding a just, peaceful and lasting solution to this crisis." -------------- Other Issues -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The statement reported that the NEC's annual planning conference ("lekgotla") is scheduled for 18-20 January. (NOTE: This timing should place the NEC lekgotla immediately prior to the annual Cabinet lekgotla and a few weeks prior to the opening of parliament and President Mbeki's 08 February State of the Nation address.) It also reminded that the ANC, led by Zuma, will celebrate its 96th anniversary at a 12 January rally at a local Tshwane sports stadium. Approximately 20,000 people are expected to attend. Finally, the statement expressed condolences on the deaths of several "valued cadres", including South African diplomat Mlungisi Sisulu who died on 03 December of cerebral malaria while posted to Sudan. (BIO NOTE: Sisulu's stepmother, Elinor, is a respected activist on Zimbabwe and a close Embassy contact. His father, Max, is an NEC and NWC member (see paras 3-4) and a senior executive with SASOL. The Ambassador has sent a personal condolence note to Max and Elinor Sisulu and their family.) -------------- Mbeki Bows Out -------------- ¶11. (C) Zuma's overwhelming dominance of the new ANC leadership structures was underscored by the notable absence of ex officio NEC member Thabo Mbeki and his uniformly respected policy advisor Joel Netshitenzhe from this inaugural meeting. The media noticed this absence almost immediately and clamored for an explanation. A terse official response indicated that scheduling conflicts rendered their attendance impossible. (COMMENT: While the Chinese Foreign Minister was in town for bilateral meetings that day, ForMin Dlamini-Zuma bore the brunt of that visit. It seems unlikely that both Mbeki and Netshitenzhe were prevented from making even a token appearance at this crucial Qprevented from making even a token appearance at this crucial ANC event. It is unclear whether their decision not to attend is linked to Ref C rumors of a planned showdown over Mbeki's unwillingness to take direction from Zuma. END COMMENT.) -------------- Comment -------------- PRETORIA 00000066 004.2 OF 004 ¶12. (C) The results of this first meeting of the Zuma-led ANC NEC reveal several things. Zuma clearly has CONTROL over all party structures. It appears he intends to use the full force of the ANC to defend himself against pending corruption charges and will meet Mbeki head on wherever his authority is challenged. The statement language implicitly questioning the integrity of the NPA is somewhat disturbing in terms of the broader effect it could have on the population's trust in law enforcement institutions, but given the strong views of many Zuma supporters on the illegitimacy of the Zuma case, this language likely was considered to be "moderate". While the statement clearly was intended to endorse Zuma as the ANC's candidate for president in 2009, the fact that the wording refers not to Zuma by name, but rather to "the ANC President" gives the party a face-saving out if Zuma should be convicted prior to the elections and leaves the door open to ANC Deputy President Motlanthe and others waiting in the wings. Finally, the initial focus of a Zuma-led NEC appears to be almost entirely internal to South Africa. While the Kenya language is nominally helpful, it reads like a cursory acknowledgment of a breaking development -- there is no indication in the overall statement that thoughful discussion of major foreign policy issues formed a significant portion of the NEC deliberations. We will look to the upcoming 12 January ANC anniversary rally and 18-20 January planning lekgotla for further indications of where the party is headed in this transition year. BOST