MASIYIWA ALLY LOBBYING ZUMA TO BE TOUGH ON ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000642 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2018 TAGS: PREL KDEM ZI SF SUBJECT: MASIYIWA ALLY LOBBYING ZUMA TO BE TOUGH ON ZIMBABWE Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) African National Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma reportedly said that the ANC is "fed up" with President Mugabe, according to Embassy contact and Zimbabwean businessman Strive Masiyiwa. Masiyiwa told Ambassador McGee (speaking by conference call),PolCounselor and PolOff that one of Masyiwa's colleagues met with Zuma in Port Elizabeth March 26 to lobby on Zimbabwe. (NOTE: Post suspects the person who met with Zuma is Masiyiwa friend Jethro Goko. Goko is a Zimbabwean national and Editor-in-Chief of the Port Elizabeth Herald, a newspaper owned in part by Cyril Ramaphosa. END NOTE.) ¶2. (C) Zuma told Masiyiwa's friend that the ANC was particularly concerned about the statements of senior Zimbabwean military officials that they will not respect the outcome of the election if Mugabe loses. The ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) issued a statement on March 17 that urged "all institutions of state in Zimbabwe, and in particular the security forces, to remain non-partisan and to respect the outcome of the elections." Zuma said the ANC "instructed" President Mbeki to deliver this message with President Mugabe. Mbeki "hemmed and hawed" and never contacted Mugabe. Zuma then asked former Chief of the South African National Defense Force (SANDF) Siphiwe Nyanda to reach out to Zimbabwean military officers, many of whom he knows well, to urge them to respect the results of the election. Masiyiwa does not know if Nyanda was successful. ¶3. (C) Zuma also said that he discussed Zimbabwe with Angolan President dos Santos during his recent trip to Angola. Dos Santos told Zuma that Angola will not go out of its way to help Mugabe, reportedly saying that "Angolan troops will not cross the border to save Mugabe." ¶4. (C) COMMENT: While Zuma has publicly backed Mbeki's quiet diplomacy in Zimbabwe, we agree that Zuma does not carry the same baggage as Mbeki and is less likely to protect Mugabe. Many of Zuma's closest allies in COSATU and the SACP are openly sympathetic to the Zimbabwean opposition and critical of Mugabe. We were encouraged by the ANC public statement urging the Zimbabwean security structures to respect the election results. That said, Zuma is famous for telling people what they want to hear, so whether Zuma's private comments will translate into public ANC positions -- or influence over South African Government (SAG) policy -- is unclear. END COMMENT. TEITELBAUM