(S/NF) MASIYIWA PREDICTS MDC VICTORY IN ZIMBABWE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000604 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S S. HILL E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018 TAGS: PREL KDEM SF ZI SUBJECT: (S/NF) MASIYIWA PREDICTS MDC VICTORY IN ZIMBABWE POLL; FUNDS ANTI-RIGGING PLAN REF: A. PRETORIA 0419 ¶B. 05 PRETORIA 01253 PRETORIA 00000604 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai will win the March 29 election, predicted respected Zimbabwean businessman Strive Masiyiwa (strictly protect). The only question is the extent of ZANU-PF rigging and whether this might force a second round presidential poll. Masiyiwa downplayed the impact of Simba Makoni's candidacy, arguing that Makoni has made significant blunders and lacks public support from key ZANU-PF leaders. Tsvangirai will never accept a secondary role to Makoni. Masiyiwa is quietly floating a proposal in which Makoni would endorse Tsvangirai in return for Makoni's appointment as Prime Minister -- although he was not optimistic the deal would happen. Masiyiwa is funding a sophisticated "anti-rigging" initiative in cooperation with the MDC (1) that seeks to discourage rigging at the local level and (2) that will tabulate results from local MDC electoral agents at a center in Johannesburg and post these results on an Internet site. Masiyiwa hopes the public announcement of parallel results through will generate pressure on Mugabe to accept defeat. END SUMMARY. -------------- Tsvangirai Has Support to Win SIPDIS -------------- ¶2. (C) In a March 19 meeting with visiting Staffdel Marsh, PolCounselor and POLOFF (notetaker),exiled Zimbabwean businessman Strive Masiyiwa claimed that Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai has the votes to win in the March 29 Zimbabwe elections. Tsvangirai is drawing huge and enthusiastic crowds, including in deep rural areas that were thought to be Mugabe strongholds. In any "normal" election, Tsvangirai would win in the first round with more than 50 percent of the vote, although in Zimbabwe it's possible there will be a run-off between President Mugabe and Tsvangirai. -------------- Tsvangirai-Makoni Alliance Unlikely SIPDIS -------------- ¶3. (C) Masiyiwa downplayed the impact of Simba Makoni's candidacy, stating categorically that Makoni will come in third in the presidential poll. Makoni has made significant blunders in his campaign, including scheduling (poorly-attended) rallies in Harare and Bulawayo the same weekend. The support of ZANU-PF strongman Solomon Mujuru -- and even the Zimbabwean military -- means little unless they come out publicly. That said, the "Makoni phenomena" is "extremely valuable," Masiyiwa said. It has exposed divisions in ZANU-PF and served as a "foil" for Tsvangirai, who has been able to campaign relatively freely with Mugabe focused on Makoni. ¶4. (C) On prospects for a Tsvangirai-Makoni alliance, Masiyiwa was not optimistic. Buoyed by the large turnout at his rallies, Tsvangirai will never accept a secondary role to Makoni. Masiyiwa has been quietly floating the idea of Makoni endorsing Tsvangirai in the next few days. In return, Tsvangirai would promise to make Makoni prime minister, and SIPDIS offer Makoni's camp at least seven cabinet ministers (out of 21 total),more if they win more than 50 parliamentary seats. The person that Masiyiwa had identified to take the "deal" to Makoni backed down the night of March 18, so Masiyiwa was looking for another emissary. (NOTE: Masiyiwa discussed the Qlooking for another emissary. (NOTE: Masiyiwa discussed the prime minister idea, which draws on the Kenya model, with former UNSG Kofi Annan, whom he recently met in Kampala. END NOTE.) -------------- Anti-Rigging Plan -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) Working with the MDC, Masiyiwa has developed a sophisticated, two-part plan to prevent Mugabe from rigging the election, or at least reduce the extent of rigging. (NOTE: Masiyiwa asked Staffdel to strictly protect this information, stating that he was only sharing this PRETORIA 00000604 002.2 OF 003 information with the USG, not/not other governments, and had planned to do so only next week. Any public disclosure would doom the initiative, Masiyiwa stressed. In addition to the anti-rigging effort, Masiyiwa is funding campaign materials for the MDC, which are being printed in South Africa and smuggled into Zimbabwe. END NOTE.) -- First, the Masiyiwa/MDC team is reaching out to local-level GOZ election officials across the country with cards and other materials to urge them not to rig the election, pointing out that rigging is a criminal offense. He has created a hotline to report rigging, with financial rewards for those who report verifiable cheating. While Masiyiwa recognizes the limitation of this effort, he believes many local officials will be sympathetic to this message; he also notes that even a small reduction in rigging is potentially useful. -- Second, Masiyiwa has created a parallel vote count center, based in Johannesburg, that will report the results publicly as soon as they are available, independent of and in advance of, any Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announcements. The plan works like this: Once the results are announced at each polling place, the MDC agents will text message or call in the results to a Zimbabwe cell phone number. (Masiyiwa and the MDC are ensuring that all their agents have access to cell phones or even satellite phones as necessary, in the event that the local network is interrupted.) The call will be secretly rerouted to a computer center in Johannesburg, where Masiyiwa has compiled a team of technical experts to enter the results into a database. MDC observers will also count the number of people who enter each local polling station and will compare this number with the local precinct vote count, highlighting discrepancies. The center will then post the results on an Internet site as they come in, essentially preempting the Zimbabwe Election Commission results and any ill intention of Mugabe to falsely claim victory. Masiyiwa's team will send the Internet link to diplomats and journalists once the results are tabulated. ¶6. (S/NF) Masiyiwa hopes that the quick public announcement on his Internet site -- before the ZEC has time to consult with Mugabe -- will generate intense public pressure on Mugabe to accept defeat. The parallel results could be used by the USG and others to encourage South African President Mbeki, AU Chairman Kikwete, and others to intervene with Mugabe. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) Masiyiwa's anti-rigging initiative strikes us as innovative and carefully planned. It plays to Masiyiwa's strength as an engineer and problem-solver. His technical expertise and ownership of Zimbabwe's Econet cellular phone company, with coverage throughout the country, places him in a unique position to pull this off. However, we note that the initiative depends on the ability of MDC agents, many of whom are not well trained, to accurately and quickly send electoral results to Masiywa's call center. It is possible that GOZ intelligence officials will catch wind of the plan, and corrupt the data being fed to Johannesburg. Even if the results are compiled accurately and Tsvangirai's victory publicly announced, Mugabe may simply dismiss them as "Western" manipulation. We also doubt that Mbeki would use Q"Western" manipulation. We also doubt that Mbeki would use the results to pressure Mugabe to step down. South Africa's core interest in Zimbabwe has always been stability, not democracy, and we believe Mbeki will intervene only if he feels it is necessary to prevent violent upheaval. ¶8. (C) On Masiyiwa's political analysis, we defer to Embassy Harare, but note that Masiyiwa is an ardent MDC supporter and perpetual optimist. He predicted an MDC victory in the parliamentary elections in 2005 (ref B),when ZANU-PF won 78 of 120 elected seats. Masiyiwa appears to be motivated by a genuine and strong sense of nationalism and frustration with the deterioration of Zimbabwean political, economic, and social life. He is clearly investing significant personal resources in this endeavor, joking that it is "costing as much as the invasion of Iraq." Masiyiwa also said that if all goes well in the next few weeks, he will finally be able to go home. PRETORIA 00000604 003.2 OF 003 ¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Harare. Staffdel Marsh did not/not have an opportunity to clear this message before departing Johannesburg. BOST