MAMABOLO SAYS FNL AND GOB ON BOARD WITH PEACE PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000475

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF J. SWAN, AF/C M. CASEY, AF/S E. BROWN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018
TAGS: PREL BY SF
SUBJECT: MAMABOLO SAYS FNL AND GOB ON BOARD WITH PEACE PLAN

REF: A. PRETORIA 0428

B. PRETORIA 0448

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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Don Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d
).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The Government of Burundi (GOB) and the
Palipehutu-FNL (FNL) fully endorse the South African
"Programme of Action" to conclude the FNL peace process in
2008, according to DFA Great Lakes Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo.
Mamabolo, who just returned from meetings in Dar es Salaam
and Bujumbura, reported that the FNL continues to make
difficult demands on political and military integration, but
he believes the two sides can find creative solutions to
these issues, such as appointing two or three senior FNL
leaders as "senior presidential advisors." Mamabolo believes
the FNL is serious about the peace process, noting that the
Facilitation is meeting FNL commanders from the bush for the
first time. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) South African Government (SAG) Special Envoy for
the Great Lakes Kingsley Mamabolo expressed his warm
appreciation for the active involvement and contribution of
DAS Swan at the February 22-23 "Seminar of Special Envoys
Dealing with Burundi" in Cape Town (ref A). In an 06 March
meeting with PolCouns and PolOff, Mamabolo stressed the
importance of keeping the international partners "on the same
page," noting that in the past South Africa, regional
players, and Western countries sometimes took differing
positions on the Burundi conflict, to the detriment to the
peace process.


3. (C) Mamabolo and the Facilitator of the Burundi Peace
Process, SAG Minister for Safety and Security Charles
Nqakula, traveled to Dar es Salaam and Bujumbura in early
March following the February 22-23 Cape Town seminar to
discuss the proposed "Programme of Action" with the GOB and
FNL and to formally introduce the idea of the Political
Directorate. Both the FNL and GOB endorsed the Programme of
Action and pledged their full cooperation. (NOTE: Per ref A,
the Programme of Action proposes the creation of a Political
Directorate to resolve difficult issues between the FNL and
GOB, although it will not reopen existing agreements.
Representatives from the FNL, GOB, Facilititation, Uganda,
Tanzania, South Africa, AU and EU will sit on the
Directorate. END NOTE.) Mamabolo will chair the Political
Directorate and will spend much of his time in Bujumbura over
the next six months.


4. (C) On the FNL side, Mamabolo said he was "optimistic"
about the prospects for peace. For the first time, the South
African Facilitation team is meeting with FNL commanders
"from the bush," which Mamabolo takes as a sign of
seriousness on the part of the FNL. However, the FNL
continues to raise some difficult demands, including the two
key issues of (1) integration of senior FNL leaders into GOB
political structures, and (2) integration of FNL combatants
into the Burundian military, including the military
leadership. The FNL also raised with the Facilitation:
Qleadership. The FNL also raised with the Facilitation:

-- the creation of a new hybrid UN-AU peacekeeping force to
oversee FNL integration (a "non-starter" Mamabolo
acknowledged);

-- the necessity of a new parliamentary act guaranteeing the
FNL immunity (The Burundian Parliament says they cannot pass
a law using the term "Palipehutu-FNL," since it is an ethnic
name that violates the Constitution);

-- increased security for the FNL leadership who will return
to Bujumbura (Mamabolo left a team behind in Dar es Salaam to
refine their exact demands).

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5. (C) Mamabolo noted that it would be difficult for
President Nkurunziza to "give" the FNL ministries, since
other parties -- who already are unhappy with the
power-sharing arrangements -- would cry foul. Nkurunziza is
"hiding behind the Constitution" to avoid these unsavory
political choices. Mamabolo suggested to Nkurunziza that he
consider making two or three FNL leaders "senior advisors" or
"ministers without portfolio," perhaps even appointing FNL
leader Rwasa as his advisor on integration. He noted that
elections are scheduled for 2010, so this would be merely a
transitional arrangement. As an aside, Mamabolo said that he
believes the FNL has popular support and might do well in the
2010 elections. On military integration, Nkurunziza said
that the CNDD-FDD "left room" for the FNL in the military
structures, so that military integration should not be too
difficult.


6. (C) COMMENT: Mamabolo seemed genuinely upbeat and
optimistic about the Burundi peace process following the Cape
Town seminar and consultations with the parties, although he
noted that the hard part -- implementation of the plan -- is
still to come. After a rocky patch in late 2007, the South
African Facilitation appears to have repaired its
relationship with the FNL and is committed to concluding the
peace process in 2008, in part because the SAG is tired of
paying for the deployment of 750 troops in Burundi. Post has
found Mamabolo accessible and open, and suggests that both
the Department and Embassy Bujumbura continue their close
cooperation with him during the challenging months ahead.
END COMMENT.
TEITELBAUM