NEW ANC LEADERSHIP NOT NECESSARILY MORE LEFT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000342 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR SF SUBJECT: NEW ANC LEADERSHIP NOT NECESSARILY MORE LEFT LEANING REF: 07 PRETORIA 4242 PRETORIA 00000342 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Despite media portrayals of a newly-elected "left-leaning" ANC, the new National Executive Committee (NEC) is no more left-leaning than the previous one under Mbeki's ANC presidency, according to Neva Makgetla, an economic advisor in the presidency, and Michael Sachs, one of Finance Minister Trevor Manuel's economic advisors. Both Makgetla and Sachs, who are leftists themselves, told DepEconCouns and PolOff in late January and early February that most of the newly elected officials have one thing in common -- they fell out of favor with Mbeki over the past ten years. In this sense, the new NEC is filled with provincial leaders who successfully rebelled against Mbeki's micromanagement of provincial and local party politics. Though they may not be more left-leaning, they may try to exert more control over government decisions than the past NEC, which took instructions from President Mbeki. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE NEW ANC: THE WALKING WOUNDED -------------- ¶2. (C) The ANC's December elections (reftel),which saw a dramatic shift in leadership, has been mistakenly characterized as a radical ideological takeover by the left, according to Neva Makgetla, economic advisor to the presidency, and Michael Sachs, economic advisor to Finance Minister Trevor Manuel. Both admitted to DepEconCouns and PolOff in late January and early February that newly elected ANC President Jacob Zuma and his supporters have taken the reins of the party from national President Thabo Mbeki, but not on ideological grounds. Makgetla argued that there are more businessmen than ever on the new NEC, and Sachs revealed that post-election NEC meetings have not been contentious. "No one is arguing over ideology or policy in the NEC meetings," he said, adding that instead members quibble over "trivial things like timelines and costing." ¶3. (C) However, both Sachs and Makgetla observed that most of the new NEC members have one thing in common: they have been spurned by Mbeki. Some are ANC stalwarts who were never accepted by Mbeki because of lack of formal education (like Enoch Godongwana). Some initially had been part of Mbeki's regime, but were kicked out either under a cloud of suspicion or after being convicted for criminal wrongdoing (like convicted fraudster and former MP Tony Yengeni). Makgetla reported that the Joel Netshitenzhe, one of Mbeki's chief policy advisors, has nicknamed the new NEC "the walking wounded." Sachs, however, observed that the new NEC also includes the resentful -- powerful provincial elites (like Free State's ANC Chairperson Ace Magashule or Limpopo's ANC Provincial Secretary Cassel Mathale) who have been at odds with Mbeki over his centralized decisions at the provincial and local levels. According to Sachs, "Mbeki was overthrown by provincial elites, not the left; we've seen Polokwane happen a hundred times over in the past two years with provincial and local governments fighting Mbeki and central government for more control." -------------- OVERSTATING THE ALLIANCE -------------- ¶4. (C) The change in ANC leadership also has been mistakenly sold by the media as a demonstration of the strength of the tripartite alliance, which includes the ANC, South African Qtripartite alliance, which includes the ANC, South African Communist Party, and Congress of South African Trade Unions, according to Makgetla and Sachs. Sachs said that COSATU "is all about grandstanding," and that "their job is to be the public opposition." However, Sachs argued that no one in COSATU really expects drastic changes in policies as a result of the Zuma camp victory, a sentiment shared by Makgetla, COSATU's former chief economist. ¶5. (C) Sachs, whose biological father Joe Slovo was a leader of the SACP, also scoffed at the idea that the SACP is even communist anymore. He told us that he had written a very critical article entitled "Has Socialism Left the Party?" which argued that the SACP is "devoid of any sober Marxist analysis and is more concerned about implementation of current ANC policy than a reconfiguration of state power." PRETORIA 00000342 002 OF 002 He also said that SACP politburo members were rewarded with spots on the NEC for their strong support for Zuma, again not on ideological grounds, but in recognition of their rebellion against Mbeki. "The SACP is not an ideological alternative to the ANC; its goal is to take back the ANC so their own interests can be served," he said. -------------- ZUMA SEEKS SMOOTH TRANSITION -------------- ¶6. (C) Though neither Sachs or Makgetla supported Zuma, neither seemed too troubled by his win. Makgetla acknowledged that corruption could worsen under Zuma, but seemed to brush such concerns aside by arguing that the ANC always had to "fudge finances" in order to take care of its own. Sachs believes that Zuma wants to ensure "a smooth transition that will not spook investors." This could be achieved by keeping Minister Trevor Manuel on as Finance Minister, at least for a year or so. After that, Sachs said Zuma has other options, including current Head of the South African Revenue Service Pravin Gordhan and current KwaZulu-Natal MEC for Finance and Economic Development Zweli Mkhize. Sachs said that he would have "complete confidence" in either person. (COMMENT: During a political roundtable at the Institute for Global Dialogue on 5 February, analysts were equally divided on whether Manuel would agree to stay on as Finance Minister if asked. Some argued that, after 15 years in government, Manuel would be looking for other options, while others believed that Manuel would do what was in the best interests of South Africa. END COMMENT) ¶7. (C) Both Sachs and Makgetla also believe that ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe's appointment as Deputy President of the country, which Sachs said was "in train," also would help ensure a smooth transition. (NOTE: Since EmbOff meetings, press reports have noted that the Zuma camp is divided over Motlanthe's appointment, with strong Zuma supporters opposing the appointment, which they feel could give Motlanthe an advantage. Mbeki also publicly said on 10 February that he had not been approached by either the ANC or Motlanthe for a position. END NOTE) Makgetla argued that Motlanthe could be a bridge between the current NEC and cabinet. Moreover, if he were to replace Mbeki as national president, he would not repeat what she considers Mbeki's main weakness -- his appointment of cabinet members based on loyalty, not capability. Nevertheless, Makgetla described Motlanthe as a type of accidental leader, saying he was appointed both ANC Secretary General and head of the National Union of Mineworkers because he was "at the right place at the right time." She denied that he was a great political strategist and said though his heart was in the right place, he could be easily intimidated. Sachs described Motlanthe as "conciliatory and pacific." When asked whether he would consider him a Marxist, Sachs simply said, "he comes from the 1950s frame of mind." -------------- COMMENT: MORE ANTI-MBEKI THAN PRO-ZUMA -------------- ¶8. (C) If the majority of the NEC is united only in its opposition to Mbeki, Zuma will have to work hard at maintaining loyalty. Many are not personally wedded to Zuma, who is commonly portrayed as a populist, but instead feel that they will have more control with Mbeki out of the picture. Moreover, the new NEC, though similar in ideology, Qpicture. Moreover, the new NEC, though similar in ideology, may try to exert more control over the current Mbeki government than the past NEC, which for the most part took instructions from Mbeki. However, this may not automatically apply to the next national government if NEC members become as beholden to it as the previous NEC was to Mbeki. ¶9. (C) The election of the new NEC may reflect an evolution within the ANC in which the absence of a unifying threat (the apartheid regime) has allowed differences and schisms to rise to the surface. As a consequence, the former tendency to resolve differences in the quest for unity has been replaced by jockeying for power among competing factions. BOST