COPE, ANC SQUARE OFF ON RECONCILIATION DAY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 002736 SIPDIS AF/S PLEASE PASS TO A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018 TAGS: KJUS PGOV KDEM SF SUBJECT: COPE, ANC SQUARE OFF ON RECONCILIATION DAY IN BLOEMFONTEIN REF: PRETORIA 2709 PRETORIA 00002736 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: DEPUTY POLITICAL COUNSELOR MADELINE Q. SEIDENSTRICKER FO R REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Congress of the People (COPE) and the African National Congress (ANC) held events on December 16 in Bloemfontein that indicate where South Africa is headed ahead of the election next year and beyond. COPE's December 13-16 inaugural conference ended on December 16 with the election of its leadership slate, headed by Mosiuoa Lekota. The ANC on December 16 held a rally in a township outside of Bloemfontein headlined by its leader, Jacob Zuma. COPE is pursuing policy and consensus with intensity while the ANC seems unsure how to respond and therefore is relying on free entertainment and messages from the past. In a country with more "have-nots" than "haves," the ANC's message gives it the upper hand ahead of the election as the ANC's messages are directed at the poor while COPE for now appears to be directing its messages to the middle class. Despite the ANC's advantage, the moment the ruling party's tactics no longer work and the "have-nots" in places like Manguang township decide the ANC is no longer formulating new policies for tackling old problems, COPE may find even more political space to emerge. End Summary. -------------- Present at Creation: COPE -------------- ¶2. (C) They came by the thousands, in chartered buses and expensive model cars. They came from far flung corners of all of South Africa's provinces because they were "fed up by the ANC," inspired by Lekota, or curious about a new political movement. Once there, they took part in a conference that was well-organized and well-attended. The University of Free State opened its doors to COPE and local police officials made sure delegates could work out policy safely and securely; there were few reports of COPE members being targeted or threatened by the ANC or the local public. Numerous delegates, all wearing COPE t-shirts, hats, or shorts, talked with Poloffs about their reasons for joining, COPE's organization, and what the future holds. A group of three male delegates from the Free State whispered, "We all are from the ANC, but we have had enough. There is too much corruption in the municipal governments ... the ANC has to go." Two female delegates, one from Eastern Cape and one from Western Cape, told Poloffs that they left the ANC because the party "has no morals and has lost Christ." They noted, "What the ANC is teaching our children is that having no morals is all right." Three male delegates from Gauteng told Poloffs they left the ANC because "we could never speak out against policy or have a say in decisions." A male delegate from Limpopo told Poloff he left the ANC because "as a white guy they never took me seriously." Another male delegate, from Western Cape, said, "I had to leave the Independent Democrats (ID) because even though we started out as strong as COPE the ID became all about one person (Patricia De Lille)." A male delegate from Mpumalanga told Poloffs he left the ANC because "they do nothing for the rural areas. I mean, nothing ... there are people really suffering out there but the ANC has not done one thing." ¶3. (C) Lekota opened the conference on December 14 before the party held meetings on policy from December 15-16. Qthe party held meetings on policy from December 15-16. Lekota, and all the other speakers, delivered their messages in front of a large banner with the COPE message -- "A New Party For Hope and Change" and behind a lectern with the newly approved COPE symbol. Lekota commanded loud applause, and standing ovations, during his opening speech and nearly every following time he spoke before the roughly 4,000 delegates. Following his opening remarks, other senior COPE leaders spoke about the party's future and the party's values. (Note: COPE made a point of not speaking about the ANC or about Zuma. End Note). Mbhazima Shilowa spoke several times and commanded a huge ovation at one point when he leapt from his chair on the podium and removed the cap worn by a young man addressing the crowd. Shilowa seriously PRETORIA 00002736 002.2 OF 004 said, "You need to show respect when you are speaking in front of others." Shilowa on December 15 also promised Lekota on December 16 he would "be made very surprised and very happy by some of our announcements." Following Shilowa's remarks, COPE leader Charlotte Lobe approached the lectern and asked that delegates break into commissions to discuss potential COPE policies. ¶4. (C) Poloffs sat in on the commission meetings and gained a sense of how COPE ensured the people's voices were heard. In the commission on foreign policy and environmental affairs, Poloff witnessed two COPE members lead the room in a discussion on what COPE's foreign and environmental policies should look like. All ideas came from the floor and included such points as "serving as a model on the African continent by promoting stability and peace" and "recycling centers that pay the poor for saving cans and bottles" were tossed around and debated endlessly. (Note: COPE members did not discuss Zimbabwe during the commission on foreign affairs. End Note.) Following a two-hour discussion, delegates in the foreign policy and environmental affairs session put their thoughts into small "agreed upon" bullet points so they could be presented to the entire conference floor. In the commission on security, stability, and social cohesion, the discussion ran past two hours and delegates did not have time to put their thoughts into bullet points. Although the commissions were intellectually draining, there was a huge buzz of conversation as delegates walked from the breakaway classrooms back into the main hall where the commissions presented their findings. Delegates discussed everything from how to encourage farming to how to build party branches once the conference ended. Commission leaders presented the bullet points to the entire conference on the evening of December 15, which took hours and was only completed in the morning on December 16. ¶5. (C) As Shilowa promised, there were several surprises on December 16. First, former United Democratic Front activist Allan Boesak announced he would join the party. He reportedly is interested in serving as COPE's candidate for the Western Cape premiership. Second, Shilowa announced a large Afrikaner farmer organization would be supporting the new party. Third, the party announced its formal leadership slate. Included in the list were COPE's most prominent names such as Lekota, Shilowa, Lobe, Phillip Dexter, and Smuts Ngonyama. Also included were surprises such as Deputy President Lynda Odenall. (Note: Odenhall has no political profile and Poloff sat next to her during some of Shilowa's remarks on December 15 without even knowing who she was because she was so unassuming. Lekota has promised that Odenall's profile "will be built." Also, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel appears to be staying in the ANC for now despite rampant speculation among journalists and delegates that he would defect soon. End Note). As noted in Reftel, Lekota was named COPE's leader "by consensus." Shilowa and Odenaal will serve as Lekota's deputies. In his acceptance speech, Lekota promised the "history of South Africa would never be the same" and COPE "had taken this step because we are the party of the future." He also promised COPE would fight joblessness and grow the economy. The conference ended Qfight joblessness and grow the economy. The conference ended with a free musical concert at the main cricket stadium in Bloemfontein. Members of the general public were invited and some speculated the crowd of 4,000 swelled to 7,000 before the concert ended. As the conference ended, Poloff heard from several delegates who said they "will now begin to build branches in earnest" and "are ready to push back against the intimidation they faced in home provinces." ¶6. (C) Poloffs had dinner with Lekota assistant Tseliso Phomane the night of December 16. Clearly tired and exuberant at the same time, Phomane promised the conference is only the beginning. He said COPE has run out of t-shirts but has demand for thousands more. He noted there are more ministers, deputy ministers, and parliamentarians ready to defect from the ANC. However, he said Lekota and others are encouraging them to stay "because it is a huge disruption for the ANC to have them still in government." He said the leadership of COPE is set and "will not change since it was decided by consensus." He also noted COPE will not release its final party manifesto until January 8 so that the ANC cannot "steal ideas from it." Phomane promised that "COPE will keep the ANC off balance" in the months ahead. PRETORIA 00002736 003.2 OF 004 -------------- Referencing Its Creation: ANC -------------- ¶7. (C) They came by the thousands, on bicycles and in tattered shoes. They came from the forgotten streets of Manguang township outside Bloemfontein because they were following in their parents' footsteps, excited to see Zuma, or wanted free alcohol and entertainment. Zuma, who stood on a well-guarded stage along with ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe, ANC Deputy Secretary General Thandi Modise, Congress of South African Trade Unions Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi, and businessman Tokyo Sexwale, opened the address by focusing on the ANC's history. Unlike COPE's conference, the ANC rally was meant to as an ANC campaign platform, so there was little by way of policy discussion. Zuma began by listing the names of all the famous heroes of the movement and praised what they accomplished "for the people." Specifically, he singled out Chris Hani, saying that "our people loved Comrade Chris. He fought for peace and reconciliation." He then told the crowd the ANC needs to "defend our hard won election and our country's constitution." He spoke about how the ANC needs to focus on education, health, and job creation. He also said all of the ANC's leaders during the last 15 years need to take collective responsibility for the good and the bad of the party's decisions. (Note: Many journalists and political analysts saw this as a swipe at Lekota, who was former ANC national chairman. End Note). Despite such statements, Zuma's brief remarks focused primarily on the ANC's past and its future goals. There was little by way of negative campaigning against COPE. ¶8. (C) Zuma delivered his address in Manguang's soccer stadium to a crowd of roughly 7,000. The crowd stood for portions of the speech in the bleachers and on the field. Most in the crowd listened intently as Zuma spoke, but a large fight broke out on the field during his remarks as kids fought for the free t-shirts that ANC members were passing out. In addition to free t-shirts and a free concert, the ANC was reportedly offering free food and alcohol to all who attended. After the t-shirts were finally distributed, the crowd of kids dispersed and Zuma finished his address to widespread applause. As soon as Zuma finished speaking the crowd broke out into the popular song, "Bring Me My Machine Gun." (Note: Poloff walked under the bleachers as the crowd began to sing and was surprised at how the stomping of feet to the lyrics drowned out all other sounds in the stadium. End Note). Zuma and some of the many other entertainers brought to the event sang and danced for at least an hour after the ANC President finished his address. The crowd roared whenever Zuma joined in with the dancing. The free entertainment continued for several more hours, even after Zuma departed in a long motorcade with at least 50 bodyguards running near his vehicle. ¶9. (C) The crowd was largely black South African as Poloff saw only one Afrikaner in attendance -- who came "for the free beer" -- and one Indian. Many of those on the field were children or members of the Manguang branches of the ANC Women's League dressed in their ANC dresses and jackets. They walked slowly toward the exit after Zuma spoke, seemingly uninterested in the free entertainment following Qseemingly uninterested in the free entertainment following the address. Most of those in attendance who did stay sat in the shaded grandstand of the stadium as South Africa's most popular singers and dancers performed. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) It is important to keep in mind that COPE's conference and the ANC's rally served two different purposes. The conference served to formulate ideas for a new political party and to identify its leadership. The rally served to remind voters in a poor, urban area that the ANC still cares for them and is poised to do well in the election next year. The rally also was meant to remind COPE the ANC is still a force to be reckoned with. What was most interesting about witnessing both events is how COPE is pursuing policy and consensus (two long-time ANC buzz words) with intensity while the ANC seems unsure how to respond and is therefore relying on messages from the past. COPE's intense focus on policy PRETORIA 00002736 004.2 OF 004 and on portraying unity has not been seen in South Africa since the days of Nelson Mandela. (Note: Despite this focus on debate and discussion there are still questions over how far down consensus goes. For more information see Reftel. End Note). Meanwhile, the ANC still seems unsure of how to respond to COPE and is using free entertainment and appearances by senior leaders as a way to remind voters of how the party has served "its people." In a country with more "have-nots" than "haves," the ANC's message gives it the upper hand ahead of the election. However, the moment the ANC's tactics no longer work and the "have-nots" in places like Manguang decide the ANC is no longer formulating new policies for tackling old problems, COPE may find even more political space to emerge. BOST