FIRMS INCH CLOSER TO ACQUIRING LICENSES TO DEVELOP NATIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 002665 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED SIPDIS DEPT FOR EEB/CIP/KATHERINE TOWNSEND USTR FOR CATHERINE HINCKLEY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECPS EIND EINV EINT ECIP USTR SF SUBJECT: FIRMS INCH CLOSER TO ACQUIRING LICENSES TO DEVELOP NATIONAL WIRELESS BROADBAND NETWORKS IN SOUTH AFRICA REF: A. PRETORIA 271, B. PRETORIA 1976, C. PRETORIA 1278 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. U.S.-based DBI Broadband provided an update on positive developments in the drawn-out, South African value-added network services (VANS) license conversion process on November 28. Minister of Communications Dr. Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri finally conceded and announced that she would withdraw legal challenges to the conversion process on November 21. The decision paves the way for the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) to complete the license conversion process by January 19, as required under the Electronic Communications Act (ECA). ICASA has already asked all interested VANS licensees to submit applications by December 5 and is deciding on the final size (20 or 30 megahertz) for the licenses. Industry officials are concerned about the size and viability of the licenses and whether ICASA will complete the licensing process in time to develop national networks for the 2010 FIFA World Cup. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) U.S.-based and African-American owned DBI Broadband held a teleconference with Commercial Counselor and State ICT Officer to provide an update on progress with the South African VANS license conversion process on November 28. DBI would like to develop and operate a national wireless broadband (WiMax) network in South Africa. In order to secure the spectrum to develop a WiMax network, firms must first obtain an Individual Electronic Communications Network Services (I-ECNS) license from ICASA. DBI executives also sought U.S. Mission advice and support for their advocacy efforts. -------------- MINISTER'S INTERFERENCE DELAYED CONVERSION PROCESS AND HURT LIBERALIZATION -------------- ¶3. (U) Minister Matsepe-Casaburri announced that she would not continue to petition the Supreme Court of Appeal against the Pretoria High Court's August judgment in favor of Altech Autopage Cellular after impeding the license conversion process through legal challenges for months. The Pretoria High Court directed ICASA to convert Altech's existing VANS license into an I-ECNS license (Reftel B). The judgment also applied to all other similarly situated VANS licensees, who were given the right to apply for an ;I-ECNS or an Individual Electronic Communications Services (I-ECS) license. ¶4. (U) Matsepe-Casaburri filed a Petition for Leave to Appeal the August judgment, which was denied in October. She then sought an injunction to prevent ICASA from issuing the I-ECS and I-ECNS licenses. The injunction request was also denied, and the courts granted Altech's request for an order to compel ICASA to specifically issue the I-ECS and I-ECNS licenses. After losing this series of legal challenges, the Department of Communications (DOC) announced that she would not petition the Supreme Court of Appeal "in the interest of the ICT sector". ¶5. (U) The DOC confirmed that if the Minister had continued with the legal challenges, ICASA would have been unable to convert licenses by January 19, as required under the ECA. This would have required an amendment to the ECA to extend the conversion period, which could have further delayed license conversion to the end of 2010. The VANS license conversion process has already been delayed from the original target of May 2008. According to the DBI executives, lengthy delays would make it impossible for new national broadband Qlengthy delays would make it impossible for new national broadband operators to develop networks in time for the 2010 World Cup. Lengthy delays would also allow the handful of existing broadband operators to solidify their market share and continue to reduce competition. -------------- ICASA FREE TO COMPLETE LICENSING PROCESS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) According to DBI conversations with major industry players such as Altech and Internet Solutions, these companies were confident that the DOC would keep its word and allow ICASA to complete the VANS conversion process by January 19. ICASA has already asked all VANS licensees interested in license conversion to submit applications by December 5, and to indicate whether their network coverage would be national or provincial. ICASA would like applicants to be able to begin network roll-outs within 12-months of the license being awarded. -------------- VIABILITY OF NEW LICENSES -------------- ¶7. (SBU) ICASA has 120 megahertz worth of spectrum for the I-ECNS PRETORIA 00002665 002 OF 003 and I-ECS licenses and is planning to award six licenses worth 20 megahertz each. The goal is to allow more entrants into the ICT market. However, DBI executives asserted that 20 megahertz is insufficient to develop a national network. According to DBI, additional spectrum is required to implement WiMax on a national-scale with a customer base large enough to make it economically viable. ¶8. (SBU) DBI executives explained that with 20 megahertz, a company could only develop a limited provincial network, which would not address the need to provide service to historically underserved areas. They thought that a lot of operators "are blowing smoke at ICASA about being able to service underserved areas, which is not feasible with 20 megahertz." For example, many applications such as Video on Demand are bandwidth intensive and a 20 megahertz license would not be sufficient for a national network to adequately support these applications. ¶9. (SBU) DBI executives also indicated that South Africa would not be "overwhelmed by hordes of new network operators as result of the license conversion process, given the high costs of building a national broadband network in South Africa." Only well-funded operators with solid business plans would be able to raise the capital required to develop a national network. DBI estimated that it would cost at least $200 million to build out a national wireless broadband network, which is consistent with other public estimates. -------------- ICASA DEBATING SIZE OF LICENSES TO BE AWARDED -------------- ¶10. (SBU) DBI executives said that some ICASA officials are considering the alternative of awarding four licenses worth 30 megahertz each. However, ICASA Chairman Paris Mashile has not completely consented to this alternative proposal. Some industry leaders have made the business case to ICASA that 20 megahertz is insufficient for national licenses. For example, Sprint has compiled a total of 120 megahertz in the U.S. through acquisition of smaller licenses (worth 10-20 megahertz each) to build its national network. ¶11. (SBU) DBI executives were not sure whether Mashile was being indecisive because of political or technical concerns. ICASA also planned on requiring 51 percent Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) equity ownership for new licenses to keep entrenched operators such as government-controlled Telkom from acquiring additional spectrum. Telkom already has 50 megahertz worth of spectrum that it is not utilizing (Reftel A). However, this requirement also creates market-entry challenges for foreign investors, and ICASA may be softening its stance on the 51 percent BEE equity requirement. The ECA made provisions for ICASA to set BEE ownership requirements for new entrants at 30 percent or above, but there was no precedent for a 51 percent (controlling stake) ownership requirement. (Comment: Minister Matsepe-Casaburri also threatened a 51 percent local ownership requirement on the landing of the U.S.-organized SEACOM fiber-optic cable that will be arriving in South Africa next June. SEACOM sold an additional 25 percent of its shares to South African entities to accommodate this request believing that time was of the essence and that a 51 percent local ownership was better than a late arrival to the market. Reftel C. End Comment). -------------- INDUSTRY CONCERNS -------------- Q -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Industry representatives are joining together to develop an advocacy plan to maintain pressure on ICASA to meet commitments for license conversion and WiMax spectrum allocation. ICASA also plans to complete the spectrum allocation process for WiMax by the end of the first quarter of 2009. DBI is trying to finalize its own strategy to secure a license. If ICASA decides to award four licenses worth 30 megahertz each, the bidding process will become more competitive. Executives are worried that BEE issues will drive the licensing process and a small group with the right political connections, but without the technical capacity to develop a national network will acquire the license and then flip it for a profit increasing the overall cost of the final licenses. ¶13. (SBU) DBI is also considering options to partner with other licensees to develop a national network if ICASA winds up awarding six licenses worth 20 megahertz each instead. For example, a partnership between two licensees (who each receive a 20 megahertz license) would result in a national network with 40 megahertz. DBI is already working with Motorola on strategies to reach underserved areas, but this strategy also requires the development of a broader network with an urban presence to subsidize the service to PRETORIA 00002665 003 OF 003 underserved areas. -------------- ADVOCACY AND QAINING -------------- ¶14. (SBU) DBI is developing a Guideline Document to raise its concerns regarding spectrum allocation with ICASA before ICASA finalizes its own rules. DBI will send a draft of the document to the U.S. Mission and other U.S. firms for endorsement. DBI executives also emphasized that a round of technical assistance or training from FCC or other international regulatory bodies on spectrum management and allocation would be useful for ICASA officials. ICASA has lost a lot of its expertise with staff turnover and would benefit from a broader international perspective on spectrum management and call termination pricing issues (Reftels A and B). ¶15. (SBU) Comment. Progress with liberalization in the South African ICT sector has been slow, but pressures coming from the infrastructure requirements for the 2010 FIFA World Cup have provided the impetus for some policy breakthroughs. Minister Matsepe-Casaburri has consistently impeded liberalization in the sector by delaying ICASA licensing processes and the launch of new Africa-wide under-sea, fiber-optic cable projects with legal challenges or requirements for majority local-ownership (Reftel C). She appears to be relenting from her policy of "managed liberalization" after a series of legal defeats and as pressure for 2010 preparations mount. Industry officials hope that a change in government earlyQxt year will also bring new leadership to the DOC, which would allow ICASA to operate more independently. New entrants will bring much-needed competition to the South African ICT sector, but DOC interference and ICASA delays will continue to perpetuate high ICT costs. End Comment. BOST