STRONG INDICATION OF MBEKI INVOLVEMENT IN COPE

S E C R E T PRETORIA 002650

SIPDIS

AF/S PLEASE PASS TO A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2018
TAGS: KJUS PGOV KDEM SF
SUBJECT: STRONG INDICATION OF MBEKI INVOLVEMENT IN COPE

Classified By: DEPUTY POLITICAL COUNSELOR MADELINE Q. SEIDENSTRICKER FO
R REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

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Summary
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1. (S//NF) Former President Thabo Mbeki reportedly had a
hand in drafting a six-page policy document for the newly
formed Congress of the People (COPE) and has influence in how
COPE is drafting a foreign policy vision, according to
prominent University of South Africa professor Dirk Kotze.
Kotze's comments serve as the strongest indication yet that
the former South African leader may be assisting the party
formed by many of his longtime allies. End Summary.

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Mbeki May Be Helping on COPE's Policy Formation
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2. (S//NF) Kotze, who has close ties to Mbeki allies Aziz
and Essop Pahad, told Poloff in a meeting on December 5 that
Mbeki appears to have significant influence in helping COPE
form domestic and foreign policies. Kotze said he frequently
meets with former African National Congress (ANC) spokesman,
and Mbeki confidant, Smuts Ngonyama. At a meeting on
December 4, Ngonyama brought a six-page document on COPE's
proposed policy vision for Kotze's input. Kotze said, "Smuts
made it very clear that it came from Mbeki." Moreover, Kotze
said, "The document carried all the hallmarks of many of
Mbeki's letters from the ANC." (Note: Mbeki for years as
Deputy President and President wrote weekly letters on behalf
of the ANC that were disseminated via the ANC website. End
Note.) At the same meeting, Ngonyama also received a
one-page foreign policy document that Kotze crafted outlining
what foreign policy goals COPE should focus on as a political
party. Kotze said, "Smuts, upon receiving my foreign policy
ideas, told me he had to run it by Mbeki before any decisions
are made." (Note: Kotze said he encouraged COPE to adopt a
foreign policy that closely aligns South Africa with the West
and pushes for a "peaceful" Africa. He offered to email
Poloff the document. End Note.) Kotze said he and Ngonyama
had a long conversation of what COPE should emphasize ahead
of the election. He said that he encouraged the party to
focus more on values and less on policies because "people
care about values right now." Kotze said he also asked
Ngonyama who would be the leader of COPE and the former ANC
spokesman said, "We are still sorting out our leadership
issues."

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Comment
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3. (S//NF) Kotze's comments are the strongest indication
Post has seen that Mbeki may be putting his weight behind the
new party. As a South African academic and foreign affairs
specialist, Kotze has strong ties to the Mbeki crowd of the
ANC and has been a good source of information for the Embassy
since at least 2004. Meanwhile, Ngonyama has been one of
Mbeki's closest allies since the former President took office
in 1999, and there is little question he probably would be in
some form of regular contact with his former boss. Moreover,
anyone who has spent time reading Mbeki's letters on behalf
of the ANC knows the former President's distinct writing
style and policy penchants, and would be able to discern
quickly whether the former leader had a hand in such
drafting. Kotze gave Poloff Ngonyama's telephone number and
encouraged him to call in coming days. Post will make every
effort to contact him and learn more about whether Mbeki is
Qeffort to contact him and learn more about whether Mbeki is
involved.
BOST