ANIMOSITY BETWEEN ZUMA, LEKOTA MAKE RETURN OR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002623 SIPDIS AF/S PLEASE PASS TO A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018 TAGS: KJUS PGOV KDEM SF SUBJECT: ANIMOSITY BETWEEN ZUMA, LEKOTA MAKE RETURN OR ALLIANCE UNLIKELY REF: POLITICAL COUNSELOR RAYMOND L. BROWN FOR REASONS PRETORIA 00002623 001.2 OF 002 1.4 (B) AND (D). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Personal animosity between African National Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma and Congress of the People (COPE) leader and former Defense Minister Mosiuoa Lekota is emblematic of the divisiveness that has created the split of the ruling party and could inhibit cooperation down the road. Zuma and Lekota have long been at odds with one another, according to a range of party insiders, pundits, and political commentators. There was a period of cooling off between the two men following the 1997 ruling party congress, but Zuma's legal troubles and Lekota's loss of power in 2007 have done little to bring the two men closer. End Summary. -------------- A Luke-Warm, Cold Relationship -------------- ¶2. (C) The relationship between Lekota and Zuma has always been characterized by tension. ANC insiders, including former National Executive Committee (NEC) member Raymond Suttner, say the source of conflict between Lekota and Zuma predates the divisive ANC congress in December 2007 where former President Thabo Mbeki lost his bid for a third term as party leader. Some insiders and commentators such as Suttner and Witswatersrand University professor Roger Southall point to 1990 when the ANC was unbanned as a starting point for the tension. Just before the apartheid state unbanned the ANC in 1990, Lekota was sent to southern Natal to lead the Mass Democratic Movement -- a loose coalition of pro-ANC groups operating in the country. Following the unbanning, the ANC selected Lekota as its interim leader in the region. He was soon replaced, however, by current Transport Minister Jeff Radede, now a Zuma ally in the NEC. In 1991, the ANC replaced Zuma with Lekota as head of intelligence. Biographers for both Mbeki and Zuma note that Zuma counts this incident as among those that convinced him that there "had long been a conspiracy against him." "Sunday Times" reporter S'thembiso Msomi has written, "Those who are sympathetic to Zuma say he could not understand why the ANC waited until he went abroad before replacing him with Lekota -- a leader who had no experience of running ANC �A;intelligence." At the time, Zuma and former Foreign Affairs Minister Alfred Nzo were the party's two most senior intelligence officials. ¶3. (C) After the 1994 election, tension between the two leaders only grew. In 1996, Zuma was among the senior ANC leaders who were unhappy with Lekota's premiership of the Free State. Zuma, as party national chairman and KwaZulu-Natal leader at the time, deemed unacceptable Lekota's decision to remove a member of his Cabinet, Pat Matosa. Lekota lost his position as premier because of the opposition of leaders like Zuma and many saw Lekota as "above the ANC." Lekota's firing, however, did not condemn him to political oblivion for long. By 1997, Lekota was back in a heated contest with the late Steve Tshwete to succeed Zuma as national chairman. Mbeki and Zuma, who took over the leadership of the party, wanted Tshwete to succeed Zuma as ANC national chairman. However, Lekota's support among the ANC's left wing and former United Democratic Front activists propelled him to victory. ¶4. (C) Tension eased after the two men assumed senior Q4. (C) Tension eased after the two men assumed senior positions in the ANC. With Zuma as the Deputy President and Lekota as Defense Minister, the two worked closely to oppose alleged attempts by then ANC Chief Whip Tony Yengeni to intimidate party legislators who backed an investigation of the controversial 1998 arms deal. The "Sunday Times," at the time, reported that Zuma and Lekota both wanted a "clean-out" of anyone taking kickbacks and that Zuma had overruled attempts by then Minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad to back off. The rift between the two re-emerged, however, around the time of Zuma's firing in 2005. Suttner said, "Lekota was clearly a Zuma foe when the (former Deputy President) was facing the same allegations of corruption over the arms deal." PRETORIA 00002623 002.2 OF 002 -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The rocky relationship between Zuma and Lekota bleeds into the ANC and COPE. Zuma described Lekota's decision to leave the ANC and form a new party as choosing to go out in the cold. The prospect of Lekota returning to the ANC under any circumstances seems far fetched. If those who were represented at last month's national convention are any indication, Lekota appears far more willing to work with the traditional opposition to the ANC -- Democratic Alliance, the United Democratic Front, or the Independent Democrats -- to build COPE's base. Working with these smaller parties could strengthen COPE's hand and better position the party to challenge the ANC. BOST