AMBASSADOR AND DIPLOMATIC CORPS DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002466 AF/S FOR MARBURG, INL FOR DISSELKOEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018 TAGS: ASEC CG EAID KDEM PGOV PINR PREL SF SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND DIPLOMATIC CORPS DISCUSS IMPLICATIONS OF ZUMA VISIT REF: A. PRETORIA 2178 ¶B. PRETORIA 2120 Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Eric M. Bost for reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador Bost hosted members of the Pretoria diplomatic corps to discuss African National Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma's recent visit to the U.S. and the latest developments on Zimbabwe power-sharing talks (report septel). The Ambassador briefed on Zuma's official meetings, and the Commercial Attach commented on Zuma's meetings with investors and press. Diplomatic corps members welcomed the Ambassador's positive ANC visit readout as a promising sign for international cooperation with an anticipated Zuma government. As the discussion moved to the South African political scene, the diplomats commented on South Africa's new ANC-breakway political party's prospects for unseating the ANC -- if not in the next election cycle then in coming years -- if the ANC cannot improve upon its record in service delivery. Senior envoys participating in the working luncheon included UK, Belgium, Ireland, Canada, Germany, the European Commission, Singapore, and Mexico. End summary. -------------- Zuma Visit Themes and Implications -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador Bost hosted a November 4 luncheon briefing on the October 20-25 ANC delegation visit to the U.S. Debunking local press reports suggesting that the Secretary refused to be photographed with Zuma, the Ambassador informed his counterparts that Zuma had his picture taken both with the Secretary and with the President. The Ambassador said Zuma's meeting with the Secretary focused on bilateral relations and on South Africa's role in Africa. The Ambassador explained that the President dropped by during Zuma's meeting with NSA Hadley. He added that Zuma told the President his priorities for South Africa are education, health (including HIV and AIDS),rural development, trade, and crime. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador briefed his luncheon guests on Zuma's productive meeting with FBI Deputy Director and of Zuma's interest in exploring a wide range of law enforcement cooperation. In response to comments from several diplomats on the difficulty of working with South Africa on law enforcement cooperation, PolCouns briefed on our recent progress on police training through the Women's Justice and Empowerment Initiative (WJEI). The Ambassador said Zuma admitted that South Africa's high crime rate was affecting investment and that something needed to be done to address the problem. In response to a question from the Canadian High Commissioner on whether Zuma had discussed the failure of South Africa's approach to law enforcement, the Ambassador said Zuma had discussed the need to have Parliament enact legal system reforms. ¶4. (C) Commenting on Zuma's meeting with U.S. Global Aids Coordinator Mark Dybul, the Ambassador said that Zuma had stressed that HIV/AIDS is a major issue and had expressed appreciation for American partnership to combat the pandemic. The envoys agreed that the appointment of South Africa's new Health Minister Barbara Hogan marks a positive turning point in South Africa's official response to HIV/AIDS. (Note: The Minister will visit the U.S. in November for personal reasons but will make a public address at Drexel University. End Qbut will make a public address at Drexel University. End note). ¶5. (C) Commercial Attache told the envoys that Zuma reassured investors at various events that pro-investment policies would continue. Asked about a potential move to the left, Zuma reassured investors that there would be no major changes in economic policy. The envoys agreed that Zuma's message was reassuring but commented that the ANC is facing a crisis in service delivery. The UK and Canadian High Commissioners commented that South African resistance to placement of foreign advisors within the civil service complicates donor efforts to design effective assistance partnerships. Pol Counselor noted that the efforts of our Senior Law Enforcement Advisor to build a partnership with the South African Police Service (SAPS) are finally bearing fruit. -------------- New Party Serves Notice on ANC -------------- ¶6. (C) Regarding the ANC's political problems at home, the ambassadors agreed that the formation of a breakaway political party is a wake-up call, and they predicted that the ANC has 3-4 years to remedy weaknesses in service delivery or it might lose its place as ruling party. The ambassadors did not consider the new party a real threat to the ANC in the short-term. Nevertheless, the envoys agreed that the "Shikota" ANC breakaway formation engineered by former Defense Minister Lekota and former Gauteng Premier Shilowa is surprisingly impressive and does not appear lacking in funding, party organization, or high-profile participants. They also agreed that the cost of removing Mbeki may ultimately prove more than the ANC can afford. BOST