SCENE-SETTER FOR CODEL LEWIS' NOVEMBER 8-13, 2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 PRETORIA 002310 //////////CANCEL CABLE WILL BE RESENT WITH NEW NUMBERS////// SENSITIVE SIPDIS AF/S FOR RUSH MARBURG, H FOR DIANE RICH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ETRD EINV PREL PGOV SF SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR CODEL LEWIS' NOVEMBER 8-13, 2008 VISIT TO SOUTH AFRICA PRETORIA 00002310 001.3 OF 008 ///// ZFR ZFR ZFR ///////////////// PRETORIA 00002310 002.3 OF 008 ////// ZFR ZFR ZFR //////////// PRETORIA 00002310 003.2 OF 008 -------------- -------------- APARTHEID AERA TERRORISM AND A NEW EXEMPTION FROM VISA INELGIBILITIES -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Visa ineligibilities related to past terrorist and criminal activity in opposition to the apartheid-era regime have posed a significant strain on the U.S.- S.A. bilateral relationship. The need for Nelson Mandela and other South African leaders, considered heroes of the anti-apartheid movement, to travel on visa waivers undercut our efforts to influence SAG policy on issues such as the designation of terrorist supporters and financiers at the United Nations Security Council. Earlier this year, Congress took action to remedy this situation and the result was Public Law 110-257, enacted in July. This law gives discretion to either the Secretary of State or the Secretary of Homeland Security, after consultations involving the Departments of State, Homeland Security, and Justice, to exempt persons from terrorist and criminal grounds of ineligibility with respect to activities undertaken in association with the African National Congress in opposition to apartheid rule in South Africa. Exemptions for an initial list of seven individuals including Nelson Mandela and Jacob Zuma have been provisionally approved by working-level officials at State, and we are waiting for DHS and DOJ to follow suit in order that the Secretary of State can formally grant the exemptions. -------------- FOREIGN POLICY - FOCUS ON PROMOTING AFRICA -------------- ¶11. (U) South Africa under Mbeki took a high-profile role promoting Africa's interests -- the African Renaissance. South Africa served as the first chair of the African Union until July 2003 and helped establish continental institutions such as the Pan-African Parliament (which sits in South Africa) and the AU Peace and Security Council. Mbeki was the driving force behind the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD),an African-developed program based on international best practices and continental peer review to strengthen economic and political governance across the continent. NEPAD is also a framework for African partnerships with the international community. These initiatives are early in their evolution and have not yet become effective mechanisms for development. ¶12. (SBU) South Africa believes that, by virtue of its history and regional political, economic, and military clout, it has a responsibility to lead African conflict resolution efforts and participate in peace support operations. South Africa continues to play a lead role in conflict resolution in Burundi and contributes troops to UN Peace Keeping missions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan. South Africa has approximately 3,000 personnel deployed in peace support operations in Africa. The U.S. has a strong interest in helping South Africa expand and enhance its peacekeeping and disaster assistance capabilities. South Africa participates in the African Contingency Operations Training and Assistance program (ACOTA) to enhance the South African National Defence Force's (SANDF) capacity to participate in multilateral peace support operations. The U.S. uses International Military Education and Training QThe U.S. uses International Military Education and Training (IMET) funds to support professional military education and technical training of future military leaders. With the January 2008 repeal of the American Servicemen's Protection Act (ASPA) prohibitions on provision of military assistance, we hope to resume Foreign Military Financing (FMF) programs supporting the South African Air Force's C-130 fleet which South Africa is using to support troops deployed to the DRC, Sudan, and Burundi. While South African officials have been openly critical of U.S. Africa Command, they continue to engage with the U.S. in a wide range of military-to-military activities. This month the U.S. completed the successful first visit by a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier to South Africa since 1967. Some observers believe that this visit could PRETORIA 00002310 004.3 OF 008 PRETORIA 00002310 005.3 OF 008 PRETORIA 00002310 006.3 OF 008 PRETORIA 00002310 007.2 OF 008 leading cause of death. Despite South Africa's overall wealth, life expectancy at birth has decreased from 67 to 52, the regional average, due to HIV/AIDS and HIV/TB co-infection. Under-five mortality, with the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of 24 per 1,000 in 2015, has increased from 60 to 67 per 1,000 between 1990 and 2006. While achieving the MDGs is the SAG's highest priority, South Africa is moving further away from these goals in both child and maternal mortality as a result of HIV/AIDS. ¶25. (U) An estimated 5.4 million South Africans are HIV-positive including 2.7 million women and about 300,000 children 14 years old or less. An estimated 18.8 percent of adults between 15 and 49 are HIV-infected and women in the age group of 25-29, the most seriously affected, have prevalence rates of up to 40 percent in some areas. An estimated 530,000 new infections occur annually In 2006, 350,000 adults and children died from AIDS; an estimated 1.8 million deaths have occurred since the start of the epidemic; and 71 percent of all deaths in 15 to 41-year-olds are due to AIDS. In the last few years, there is an indication that prevalence may be starting to decline. Prevalence in antenatal care fell from 29 percent in 2005 to 28 percent in 2008. At least 1.6 million children, approximately 10 percent of South Africa's youth, have had at least one parent die and 66 percent of these have been orphaned by AIDS. Continuing AIDS-related mortality will create millions of new orphans and generate additional social and economic disruption, in part due to orphans being raised by extended families or in child-headed households ¶26. (U) The epidemics of HIV and TB are interlinked. TB is the most common infectious disease in sub-Saharan Africa and approximately 50 percent of HIV patients in South Africa also have TB. A high overall prevalence rate of HIV, HIV/TB co-infection, and lack of continuity in treatment contribute to the increasing incidence of active TB, including multi- and extensive drug-resistant TB strains (MDR- and XDR-TB). The piloting of an SAG-approved rapid test for MDR-TB may allow more rapid identification and initiation of appropriate treatment, but staff shortages and skills challenges impede an effective response to TB. Failure to adequately control and treat TB may undo all the gains South Africa has made in HIV care and treatment thus far. ¶27. (U) The South African National Strategic Plan for HIV & AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Infections 2007-2011 (NSP) provides a road map for responding to this crisis and sets out goals of reducing new HIV infections by 50 percent by 2011 and increasing access to anti-retroviral treatment (ART). The recall of Mbeki and the subsequent appointment of Barbara Hogan as the new Minister of Health under Motlanthe promises new initiatives in health, particularly as they pertain to HIV and TB. Hogan, unlike her predecessor, Dr. Manto Tshabalala Msimang, has been outspoken in affirming the link between HIV and AIDS and has galvanized support from government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to reach the NSP targets. The South African public health system suffers from deterioration of the existing health infrastructure, need for expansion of clinical and laboratory facilities, and a PRETORIA 00002310 008.3 OF 008 BALL