AFRICAN NATION CONGRESS LEADERSHIP TO RECALL THABO

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002079 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: AFRICAN NATION CONGRESS LEADERSHIP TO RECALL THABO MBEKI AS PRESIDENT REF: A. PRETORIA 2068 ¶B. PRETORIA 2051 ¶C. PRETORIA 2031 ¶D. PRETORIA 2025 ¶E. PRETORIA 2013 Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On September 20, 2008 the African National Congress (ANC) National Executive Council announced that they decided by consensus to recall Thabo Mbeki as President of the Republic of South Africa. Mbeki's spokesman said he meant it when he told the ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe he would oblige, and resign. The ANC asked Mbeki to resign rather than pursue impeachment or a vote of no confidence in order to have a smooth transition that did not precipitate early elections. The ANC will decide the order of succession, but local analysts believe Speaker of Parliament and ANC National Chairperson Maleka Mbete will be tapped as Acting President until the next elections expected in the first half of 2009. End Summary. -------------- ANC NEC TO RECALL MBEKI -------------- ¶2. (C) The afternoon of September 20, 2008 African National Congress (ANC) Secretary General Gwede Mantashe, Deputy Secretary General Thandi Modise and ANC Spokesperson Jesse Duarte hosted a press conference on the margins of an emergency meeting of the ANC National Executive Council (NEC) to announced that the NEC has decided by consensus to recall Thabo Mbeki as President of South Africa. Mantashe said that after meeting late into the night, the senior leaders of the ANC reached this consensus decision to "bring the party together," "unite the party" around key issues, and to search for "certainty and stability" in the leadership of the ANC. When asked by a reporter what if Mr. Mbeki objected and refused to step down, Mantashe articulated the ANC's tradition of party discipline, noting that Mbeki was a deployee of the ANC, one who accepted his deployment as "an act of mutual respect and commitment to the Movement;" and disciplined deployees "will take the directives of the Movement seriously." As an individual, Mantashe said Mbeki may choose to "opt out." Mantashe said he had delivered this deliver this directive to Mbeki, who did not attend this NEC meeting. He reported that Mbeki said he welcome this announcement and would "oblige when all parliamentary requirements have been met." Parliament reconvenes in three days, on Tuesday September 23, where action to realize the ANC's intentions will likely begin. The Office of the President announced that a cabinet meeting will be held on Monday September 22, to consider this situation. -------------- NICHOLSON - THE OCCASION; NOT THE CAUSE -------------- ¶3. (C) Thabo Mbeki's decision to run for a third term as ANC President at Polokwane in December 2007, led to the eruption of long-building stress that pitted Mbeki against his formerly disgraced Deputy President Jacob Zuma. After Zuma was elected ANC President, the personalization of conflict and competition among the leaders and their supporters led to calls for Mbeki and his allies to move aside in deference to the new Zuma team. The majority of the new members of the NEC were Zuma supporters; Mbeki's supporters were decimated, leaving a small minority among the eighty NEC members. A Qleaving a small minority among the eighty NEC members. A purge of Mbeki's supporters in party structures, the provinces, municipalities and the Parliament began and continues across the country. Deputy President of the ANC, Kgalema Motlanthe, at the insistence of Zuma's supporters, was first made a member of parliament, then a Deputy President of the SAG with the portfolio of leader of Government Business. In fact, his real job is to facilitate the transition between Mbeki and Zuma after scheduled elections in the first half of next year. (Reftels ) ¶4. (C) Zuma's legal problems that threatened his chance at the presidency stemmed from allegations of corruption in the controversial arms deal of the late 1990s. Then SAG Deputy President Zuma was first accused of involvement in bribery and corruption in 2001 as the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) filed charges against Zuma's friend and advisor, Shabir Sheik, who was sentenced to prison in 2006. In 2005, President Mbeki removed Zuma as SAG Deputy President, and the threat of prosecution continues to hang over him up until today. However, in August, Zuma's legal team filed a petition before the Pietermaritzburg High Court, requesting that his charges be withdrawn as he was victim of a political vendetta and the procures for re-filing charges in December 2007 were invalid. In a political shock to South Africa, Judge Chris Nicholson agreed that the NPA procedures were incorrect, invalidating the current case against Zuma. Additionally, Nicholson expressed his view that it appeared as if Zuma was a victim of a political conspiracy led by Mbeki and the SAG to deny his aspirations to lead the ANC. Zuma supporters seized on Nicholson's views, and immediately began to demand Mbeki's removal, accusing him of a criminal abuse of power. In the past week, critical meetings were held by members of the ANC coalition (e.g., South African Communist Party, COSATU trade union federation, all of whom recommended to the NEC that "Mbeki must go." The NPA's decision to appeal Nicholson's decision, and Mbeki's intent to seek legal advice to respond to allegations against him, only served to anger Zuma's supporters and convinced them that Mbeki was a threat to Zuma's rise to the Presidency. (Reftel ) -------------- CONSTITUTIONAL PROCEDURES AND EXPEDIENCY -------------- ¶5. (C) The NEC chose to recall Mbeki, which they refer to as the "British Model," so that he could resign voluntarily and the ANC could avoid controversial litigation or polarizing political conflict. More importantly, this approach avoids early Parliamentary elections that would follow an impeachment or a vote of no confidence process. Mantashe was vague on what constitutional and parliamentary steps will inevitably follow the recall of Mbeki, as the constitution is silent on procedures following the voluntary resignation of a president. but the constitution lays out rules of succession to flow from the President, to the Deputy President, to an elected Member of Cabinet, to the Speaker of Parliament. Local political analysts have speculated for days that the ANC would ask Mbeki to resign, and if he resigned the Deputy President and loyal members of cabinet will also resign. Nevertheless, analysts are speculating that Baleka Mbete, who serves as both ANC National Chairperson as well as Speaker of Parliament, will be made Acting President until new elections can be held. 6.(C) Mantashe refused to be drawn in to characterizing the NEC's deliberations or plans. When asked who would be in charge during the interim until new elections, he glibly said Mbeki is the president, until circumstances change. He would not speculate on what followed a possible Mbeki resignation. There are no constitutional guidance on what procedures would follow the voluntary resignation of a president. Mantashe said that this political exercise has to be resolved politically, and that "the ANC would decide. The removal of uncertainty that Zuma's supporters desire would be achieved if the Polit Bureau of the ANC controlled the full transition between Mbeki, an interim Acting President, and the elevation of Zuma after the next elections. -------------- -------------- COMMENT: WILL HE JUMP; OR BE PUSHED -------------- ¶7. (C) One way or another, this episode signals the beginning of the end of the personality-based competition within the ANC between Mbeki and Zuma. It is yet to be seen if Mbeki will behave with the party discipline Mantashe says he expects, and voluntarily step down as President of South Africa. His decision, against the advice of party colleagues, to seek a third term as ANC president was driven by his concern that a Zuma presidency would be a disaster. His cryptic statement to Mantashe that he would "oblige when all parliamentary requirements have been met," leaves open the possibility that he may not resign and could demand Parliament to debate a no confidence motion or even articles of impeachment. However, Mbeki's press spokesman Makani Ratshitanga said in response to a live radio question following Mantashe's announcement that Mbeki will resign. BOST