ZUMA'S REHABILITATED IMAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002024

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: ZUMA'S REHABILITATED IMAGE

PRETORIA 00002024 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Over the past several months, ANC President
Jacob Zuma's public image has softened, with former foes,
international leaders, and big businesses changing their tune
with regards to ZUMA from one of gloom and doom to one of
acceptance, and in some cases, even adoration. Since being
elected ANC President, ZUMA has been on a disciplined charm
offensive, both domestically and internationally. However,
he has not changed fundamentally; he remains a chamelion
facing corruption charges who tells audiences what they want
to hear. In some cases, changing perceptions can be chalked
up to Zuma's extensive outreach and Mbeki's failures, but in
other cases, its most likely the result of coming to terms
with the fact that ZUMA will most likely be the country's
next President and the damage a public trial could to South
Africa (septel). Zuma's ability to be everything to
everyone, however, is likely to be short-lived until he takes
on the responsibilities of President with limited patronage
opportunities. END SUMMARY.

--------------
ZUMA: THE ANTI-MBEKI
--------------


2. (SBU) Political analyst Adam Habib told an audience at
Wits University last month that ZUMA has rehabilitated his
image in three ways. First, he has taken the charm offensive
to a new level. ZUMA is not only courting, but being
courted, by international leaders in London, Paris, New
Delhi, and Beijing, talking with international corporations,
Republican-aligned businessmen in Texas (a reference to
Stratfor),white farmers, and poor Afrikaaners. Habib
believes its a deliberate strategy that is working well to
overturn the opinion of those who did not like or trust him.
Habib joked that he did not know who took over Zuma's public
relations strategy, but that whoever it is, they are doing
quite well. (NOTE: In the run-up to Polokwane, ZUMA relied
on former disgraced journalist Ranjeni Munusamy. However,
since coming to ANC Headquarters, ZUMA may be relying more on
Steyn Speed, ANC Communications Director who is highly
respected within the ANC. END NOTE)


3. (SBU) Second, Habib believes part of Zuma's attraction is
a result of him simply being in a position of power, which is
"normal." Habib explains powerful groups associate with
people in power and society follows. Third, South Africans
reference point -- President Mbeki -- has become so bad that
"its only natural ZUMA started looking better." Habib
catalogued Mbeki's more recent blunders, including firing
National Director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli,
renewing suspended National Police Chief Jackie Selebi's
contract, and his mishandling of the xenophobic and Zimbabwe
crisis.


4. (SBU) The only credit Habib gave to ZUMA as a human,
rather than circumstance, was that ZUMA is politically
astute, despite his lack of formal education. Sipho Seepe,
Director of South African Institute of Race Relations
(SAIRR),on the other hand, believes Zuma's sheer likability
changed public opinion. He said ZUMA is universally
"likable," even by those who don't want to like him. Seepe
described ZUMA as a "negotiator, a leader, an intelligence
chief, and a unifier." Seepe also believes humility sets
Zuma apart from others, most obviously Mbeki. Seepe called
Zuma a breath of fresh air, and believes South Africans are
ready for someone who can admit they made a mistake, as ZUMA
Qready for someone who can admit they made a mistake, as ZUMA
did during his rape trial. Mbeki, on the other hand, is
often perceived as a man convinced he is always right, even
if the rest of the world does not agree, he said.

--------------
SOUTH AFRICAN'S WEAKNESS FOR ROMANTICIZING
--------------


5. (SBU) According to Adam Habib, Zuma's elevated status is
yet another example of South Africans romanticizing their
leaders. "We romanticized Mbeki and we paid for it; let's
not make the same mistake," he said. He points out that ZUMA
says what people want to hear, but engages in behaviors he
should not. He also believes ZUMA has the latitude to say
the right thing now, but that he will have to be more careful
when he becomes President. In other words, it is easy for
Zuma to be everything to everyone now, while he is not in

PRETORIA 00002024 002.2 OF 002


power, but it will be difficult once rewards are expected to
be divided.


6. (C) UNISA Head of Political Sciences Department Professor
Dirk Kotze reinforced this point to PolOff on 28 August,
saying ZUMA has promised everyone everything, and that
rewards are limited and mutually exclusive. Kotze said many
of ZUMA supporters believe they will end up with a position
either in Cabinet (currently 28 seats),Parliament (likely
around 300 seats),or in a provincial leadership position
(five positions for each of the 9 provinces). Kotze also
warned that ZUMA might not have complete control over who is
rewarded either. Kotze said that the run-up to Polokwane
proved that provincial executives are impossible to control,
and that not all provincial leaders are 100 percent behind
Zuma.
BOST