ZUMA'S REHABILITATED IMAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002024 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: ZUMA'S REHABILITATED IMAGE PRETORIA 00002024 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an d (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Over the past several months, ANC President Jacob Zuma's public image has softened, with former foes, international leaders, and big businesses changing their tune with regards to Zuma from one of gloom and doom to one of acceptance, and in some cases, even adoration. Since being elected ANC President, Zuma has been on a disciplined charm offensive, both domestically and internationally. However, he has not changed fundamentally; he remains a chamelion facing corruption charges who tells audiences what they want to hear. In some cases, changing perceptions can be chalked up to Zuma's extensive outreach and Mbeki's failures, but in other cases, its most likely the result of coming to terms with the fact that Zuma will most likely be the country's next President and the damage a public trial could to South Africa (septel). Zuma's ability to be everything to everyone, however, is likely to be short-lived until he takes on the responsibilities of President with limited patronage opportunities. END SUMMARY. -------------- ZUMA: THE ANTI-MBEKI -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Political analyst Adam Habib told an audience at Wits University last month that Zuma has rehabilitated his image in three ways. First, he has taken the charm offensive to a new level. Zuma is not only courting, but being courted, by international leaders in London, Paris, New Delhi, and Beijing, talking with international corporations, Republican-aligned businessmen in Texas (a reference to Stratfor),white farmers, and poor Afrikaaners. Habib believes its a deliberate strategy that is working well to overturn the opinion of those who did not like or trust him. Habib joked that he did not know who took over Zuma's public relations strategy, but that whoever it is, they are doing quite well. (NOTE: In the run-up to Polokwane, Zuma relied on former disgraced journalist Ranjeni Munusamy. However, since coming to ANC Headquarters, Zuma may be relying more on Steyn Speed, ANC Communications Director who is highly respected within the ANC. END NOTE) ¶3. (SBU) Second, Habib believes part of Zuma's attraction is a result of him simply being in a position of power, which is "normal." Habib explains powerful groups associate with people in power and society follows. Third, South Africans reference point -- President Mbeki -- has become so bad that "its only natural Zuma started looking better." Habib catalogued Mbeki's more recent blunders, including firing National Director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli, renewing suspended National Police Chief Jackie Selebi's contract, and his mishandling of the xenophobic and Zimbabwe crisis. ¶4. (SBU) The only credit Habib gave to Zuma as a human, rather than circumstance, was that Zuma is politically astute, despite his lack of formal education. Sipho Seepe, Director of South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR),on the other hand, believes Zuma's sheer likability changed public opinion. He said Zuma is universally "likable," even by those who don't want to like him. Seepe described Zuma as a "negotiator, a leader, an intelligence chief, and a unifier." Seepe also believes humility sets Zuma apart from others, most obviously Mbeki. Seepe called Zuma a breath of fresh air, and believes South Africans are ready for someone who can admit they made a mistake, as Zuma Qready for someone who can admit they made a mistake, as Zuma did during his rape trial. Mbeki, on the other hand, is often perceived as a man convinced he is always right, even if the rest of the world does not agree, he said. -------------- SOUTH AFRICAN'S WEAKNESS FOR ROMANTICIZING -------------- ¶5. (SBU) According to Adam Habib, Zuma's elevated status is yet another example of South Africans romanticizing their leaders. "We romanticized Mbeki and we paid for it; let's not make the same mistake," he said. He points out that Zuma says what people want to hear, but engages in behaviors he should not. He also believes Zuma has the latitude to say the right thing now, but that he will have to be more careful when he becomes President. In other words, it is easy for Zuma to be everything to everyone now, while he is not in PRETORIA 00002024 002.2 OF 002 power, but it will be difficult once rewards are expected to be divided. ¶6. (C) UNISA Head of Political Sciences Department Professor Dirk Kotze reinforced this point to POLOFF on 28 August, saying Zuma has promised everyone everything, and that rewards are limited and mutually exclusive. Kotze said many of Zuma supporters believe they will end up with a position either in Cabinet (currently 28 seats),Parliament (likely around 300 seats),or in a provincial leadership position (five positions for each of the 9 provinces). Kotze also warned that Zuma might not have complete control over who is rewarded either. Kotze said that the run-up to Polokwane proved that provincial executives are impossible to control, and that not all provincial leaders are 100 percent behind Zuma. BOST