CALLS FOR POLITICAL SOLUTION FOR ZUMA GROW

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002013 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2018 TAGS: PGOV KJUS SF SUBJECT: CALLS FOR POLITICAL SOLUTION FOR ZUMA GROW Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an d (d). ¶1. (SBU) Calls for a "political solution" to Zuma's legal problems are mounting, with options such as the complete dropping of charges, amending the Constitution to give Zuma some sort of amnesty or immunity from prosecution, or allowing Zuma the opportunity to plea-bargain being proposed. Predictably, ANC Youth League Leader Julius Malema has repeatedly called for a political solution, suggesting that President Mbeki intervene by asking for a review of the case, which will then hopefully lead to a dropping of the charges. Malema added that Mbeki needs to realize the case is dragging on for eight years now and damaging the country's standing internationally. The SACP has been less nuanced with its veiled argument that Zuma's trial would pose a threat to the country's political stability, causing political commentators to call the SACP's position political blackmail. Yunis Carrim, ANC Chairperson of Parliament's justice committee, also has publicly called for a political solution that is "legally and constitutionally tenable," referring to Italy, France, and the United States legislation that states sitting presidents are immune from prosecution. ¶2. (SBU) Some more surprising advocates of a political solution also have recently surfaced. Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) Chief Executive Jerry Vilakazi, which represents about 80 percent of South African businesses -- has publicly said that the "matter must be brought to closure so that the country can proceed with certainty of political leadership. If it requires a political solution, let (one) be found," he said. Business Day editor Peter Bruce argued in his editorial that a way to forgive those guilty of corruption since 1994 should be found so that the country can move on. "No one expected the rise of the middle class to be pretty," he wrote. ¶3. (SBU) Not everyone, however, is on board with a political solution. In the Democratic Alliance's (DA) weekly newsletter, DA Leader Helen Zille points out that a political deal would: -- threaten constitutional democracy by circumventing the rule of law and the principle of equality before the law; -- undermine South Africa's multi-party democracy by serving ANC interests over the Constitution; -- delegitimize the judiciary and the National Prosecuting Authority -- undermine overall confidence in public institutions; -- increase political risk and discouraging foreign investment; -- and deny the public the right to hear the merits of the case against Zuma, which could inform the public about whether Zuma is fit to stand for office. ¶4. (C) COMMENT. The debate about Zuma's legal fate appears to have taken on a racial dimension, as well as a political one. The chorus for a political solution is coming from a multi-racial mix of society who obviously believe more harm would be done to South Africa's reputation and political stability by having a sitting president on trial than by letting justice take its course. However, those who argue the opposite, at least publicly, are not multi-racial but in general white members of opposition parties, think tanks, or general society. While true that many South Africans have a well-deserved historic distrust of the system, the almost racial uniformity of outrage that a political solution is even being considered begs the question what happened to the Qeven being considered begs the question what happened to the political space opened up before Polokwane, where one saw for the first time public criticisms of ANC leaders from within the party. BOST