OPPOSITION TO TABLE A VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000190 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TO TABLE A VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE IN MBEKI AND CABINET REF: A. PRETORIA 0189 ¶B. PRETORIA 0168 ¶C. PRETORIA 0075 ¶D. 07 PRETORIA 4262 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Don Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (U) On 29 January, Patricia de Lille, leader of the Independent Democrats (ID),announced her party will invoke Article 102.2 of the Constitution and table a motion of no confidence in President Mbeki and his Cabinet for "failing the South African people" when Parliament begins its 2008 session on 12 February. (NOTE: Ref A provides an overview of constitutional procedures for removal of a sitting president. END NOTE.) De Lille argues that Mbeki's failure to avert the current national energy crisis (Ref B) is compromising the government's ability to deliver services and provide for the population's basic needs. Moreover, de Lille stated that South Africa's "entire economy has been built around the comparative advantage of affordable and reliable electricity and the President and Cabinet have...destroyed that advantage." De Lille also catalogued what she sees as other government failures, including its "weak and dishonest" response to the HIV/AIDS crisis, the Jackie Selebi scandal (Ref C),and the alleged corruption surrounding the late 1990's arms deal (Ref D). ¶2. (U) Thus far, only the ID appears to be on board. Helen Zille, the leader of South Africa's largest opposition party the Democratic Alliance (DA),reacted angrily to the ID's plan telling radio listeners she would not be a pawn in the ANC's internal leadership struggle and that if she had a choice between President Mbeki and ANC President Jacob Zuma, she would choose the former. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: The ID is known for political grandstanding, and this is no exception. With only five National Assembly seats, de Lille knows she cannot possibly garner the 201 votes needed to pass the motion in this ANC-dominated body. However, she is putting the ANC in a deliciously uncomfortable position. While many Zuma supporters may wish to oust Mbeki, they cannot support the ID initiative. The ANC, on principle, always closes ranks when confronted by the opposition. Also, from a purely practical standpoint, the ANC is not poised to take advantage of the opportunity -- the preferred Mbeki successor, Zuma (or even ANC Deputy President Motlanthe),is not currently a National Assembly member and therefore could not be elected to replace Mbeki, and the party is not prepared to go to early parliamentary elections. However, if ANC MPs denounce the initiative and vote against the no confidence motion, they essentially are defending Mbeki's record and/or opposing the use of such a motion -- making it that much more difficult for Zuma's camp to attempt to remove Mbeki down the road. END COMMENT. BOST