UN ENVOY MENKERIOS NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 001795 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2018 TAGS: PREL SF ZI SUBJECT: UN ENVOY MENKERIOS NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT POWER-SHARING AGREEMENT Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) French diplomat Irchad Razaaly (protect) told PolOff he met on 8 August with UN Special Envoy Haile Menkerios, who did not seem optimistic about the effectiveness or longevity of a power-sharing agreement between MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai and President Mugabe. Menkerios complained that the current negotiations were all about dividing power, and not resolving Zimbabwe's fundamental issues in the long-run. Menkerios also stated that he would not be surprised if Tsvangirai abandoned principle in exchange for power. In the end, Menkerios told Razaaly he fears the MDC will be "practical." As an example, Menkerios said he can easily see MDC agreeing to a five-year timeframe; "once they are in power, there will be no rush for new elections." Razaaly also said that Menkerios is bothered by the complete lack of discussion around amnesty and justice, and that any agreement that does not address these issues will likely be hard to sell for him back at the UN. ¶2. (C) As for the mediation process, Menkerios specifically asked the French to put him on the record as supporting the mediation process. He said he and other members of the reference group were regularly briefed when time permitted, but did not seem to think this arrangement was unreasonable. Menkerios said he believes that Mbeki should be given credit for bringing Mugabe and Tsvangirai together to the same table. Menkerios said that nothing will be resolved without direct interaction between the two principles. (NOTE: Razaaly said that the French were somewhat relieved to hear Menkerios say this since they have chosen not to criticize Mbeki for lack of progress. END NOTE) ¶3. (C) When asked what Paris' stance will be if Mugabe ends up with any type of executive power, he admitted that they are taking a wait-and-see approach for now. They also have concerns about how sustainable any agreement that includes Mugabe, but also are conscious of how they will appear on the continent if MDC comes out and says they are satisfied with the agreement and seek reengagement. He added that they are hoping the UK does not come out first and break ranks with the EU, as they have in the past. BOST