ZIMBABWE MEDIATION REACHES IMPASSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 001659 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2018 TAGS: PREL SF ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MEDIATION REACHES IMPASSE REF: PRETORIA 1632 Classified By: Ambassador Eric M. Bost. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) On 28 July, talks to reach a power-sharing agreement between President Robert Mugabe and MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai reached a stalemate after both sides presented drastically different proposals. According to numerous Embassy contacts, Mugabe's negotiators were under instruction to offer Tsvangirai the position of third vice-president, and nothing more. On the other hand, Tsvangirai has refused to accept the results of the 27 June "election" and said he will accept nothing less than the role of prime minister with full executive powers in a two-year transitional authority. Tsvangirai also apparently proposed that Mugabe could remain ceremonial president, current Vice-President Joseph Msika could be deputy president (without executive authority),and second vice-president Joyce Mujuru could become deputy Prime Minister (with executive authority). IDASA analyst Sydney Masamvu told POLOFF he believes this reflects MDC's efforts to forge an alliance with the Mujuru faction of ZANU-PF to prevent Mugabe's potential heir apparent Emmerson Mnangagwa from holding any position of power. ¶2. (C) Immediately after talks were suspended, Tsvangirai flew to Pretoria to speak to his negotiating team, which press reports note have been significantly expanded from two members to seven, including original negotiators MDC SG Tendai Biti and Deputy Treasurer Elton Mangoma, but also MDC Advisor Jameson Timba, Professor Eliphas Mukonoweshuro, Lovemore Moyo, Innocent Chagonda, and one other. A French diplomat with well-placed ANC contacts told POLOFF on 29 July that ANC heavyweight and Mbeki-rival Cyril Ramaphosa will also be added to MDC's negotiating team when talks resume, presumably on 2 August. When asked how Mbeki feels about Ramaphosa's participation, the diplomat replied that Mbeki is probably not thrilled but has no say in who negotiates for either side. (COMMENT: Ramaphosa is known to be a strong negotiator. He was ANC Secretary General during talks to end apartheid. His addition to the MDC team is unlikely to have an impact on Mugabe or ZANU-PF. Rather, Ramaphosa's participation is better understood as a manifestation of domestic politics, in the same way that Zuma speaking about Mugabe is an opportunity to make Mbeki look bad more than it reflects outrage about the Zimbabwe crisis. END COMMENT) ZANU-PF's team, which flew back to Harare last night, has also been expanded by "three unnamed brigadiers" to support Patrick Chinamasa and Nicholas Goche. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Despite all the hype surrounding the 21 July signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between Tsvangirai and Mugabe, the two sides still appear far apart. The stalemate and obvious lack of progress may yet be a blow to Mbeki, who has trumpeted promises of significant progress and raised expectations that a power-sharing deal will be signed imminently. Mugabe, however, does not appear serious about sharing power and remains as intransigent as ever. We also see no evidence that behind the scenes efforts between Mugabe and Tsvangirai (reftel) have made any headway either, forcing negotiations back to square one. END COMMENT. ¶4. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Harare. BOST