ZUMA ADVISOR SAYS TALKS WITH NPA UNDERWAY TO DROP

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 001635 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF ZI SUBJECT: ZUMA ADVISOR SAYS TALKS WITH NPA UNDERWAY TO DROP CHARGES Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Raymond L. Brown. Reason s 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Key advisors to African National Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma have entered into secret talks with the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) about the corruption charges pending against Zuma, according to businessman and former diplomat Moe Shaik. Shaik, who is part of the Zuma team, told PolOff July 25 that the ANC President hoped to convince the NPA to "view the facts in a different light" and exercise their "prosecutorial discretion" to withdraw the corruption charges. Zuma does not want to become national president in 2009 with charges hanging over him, Shaik stressed. ¶2. (C) Without providing details, Shaik said that the Zuma camp was "very optimistic" that NPA would eventually withdraw the charges or find another way to close the matter without a trial. Asked why the NPA would back off after its lengthy and costly investigation, Shaik said that (1) the political pressure from President Mbeki to prosecute Zuma was no longer there, and (2) the NPA saw it in their own "long-term interests" to resolve the matter amicably. ¶3. (C) Shaik said the secret talks had recently begun "very informally" and would not/not be completed before Zuma's initial court appearance August 3. However, the story about the talks would soon leak, and Shaik expected the NPA and Zuma's team to conclude matters in the next month or two. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: While this may be a case of wishful thinking on Shaik's part, it is possible that the NPA believes they are better off cutting a deal with Zuma instead of pushing for a politically-messy trial. NPA has suffered through a series of blunders in preparing their case, and a conviction is by no means a certainty. The trial is unlikely to be completed before the April/May 2009 national elections, so the NPA could find itself prosecuting a sitting South African President. Furthermore, NPA may be tilting against the mood of the country, which has shifted considerably in recent months, with South Africans of all political stripes increasingly accepting Zuma as the inevitable next president of the country (septel). BOST