ANC DEPUTY PRESIDENT APPOINTED TO CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 001548 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: ANC DEPUTY PRESIDENT APPOINTED TO CABINET Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an d (d). ¶1. (U) President Thabo Mbeki on 12 July appointed ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe to cabinet, making him responsible for "the coordination of government business." This existing portfolio historically resides in the office of the deputy president, which means that Motlanthe, at least on paper, will assume some of Deputy President Mlambo-Ngcuka's duties. Historically, the position involves interactions with the legislatures, including the Speaker of National Assembly and parliamentary whips and caucuses, as well as being the focal point for interactions between the executive and both business and civil society. ¶2. (C) Media reports have portrayed Motlanthe's appointment as a sign of weakness on Mbeki's part and a show of strength on the Zuma camp's part. The truth lies somewhere in between. The fact that Mbeki conceded and appointed Motlanthe shows that Mbeki cannot ignore the Zuma-led ANC, which decided that Motlanthe should be appointed to cabinet in December 2007. There is no doubt Mbeki hates feeling like decisions are being forced upon him, but given the technical considerations -- South Africa's Constitution only allows for two non-MPs to be appointed to Cabinet -- the delay in appointing Motlanthe can be boiled down to a matter of weeks, not months, as Motlanthe was just appointed to Parliament as a member of the ANC list in late May. ¶3. (C) However, IDASA analyst Jonathan Faull told PolOff on 14 July that the ANC is likely exaggerating when it says that Motlanthe will oversee 95 percent of all government business, including foreign affairs. Faull pointed out that because Motlanthe has never held a government position, he will need time to get up to speed. Faull believes his role will be mostly a "watching brief," allowing Motlanthe to observe and learn the machinations of government, including the nexus between the executive and Parliament, without undertaking an overly burdensome portfolio. (COMMENT: A "watching brief" could also be interpreted by some, especially Mbeki-ites, as keeping tabs on ANC members and reporting back to Luthuli House. END COMMENT) ¶4. (C) COMMENT: The former student activist, trade unionist, and soldier in the ANC's military wing was elected as the ANC's Deputy President when Jacob Zuma became President in December. Since Polokwane, elements of the new ANC leadership insisted that Motlanthe be given a formal role in the SAG, such as Deputy President. Mbeki did not support this suggestion, but did not oppose Motlanthe's appointment to Parliament in May. ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe clarified that Motlanthe's role in cabinet will be to facilitate the smooth transfer of power from President Mbeki to President Zuma. ¶5. (C) COMMENT CONT'D: Though most believe that ANC President Jacob Zuma is bound to become South Africa's next president, there is a pro-Motlanthe camp within the ANC that only voted for Zuma in order to oust Mbeki. This camp has often made the argument that Motlanthe should be in government to learn the ropes "in case Zuma cannot serve as President." This caveat is likely filled more with hope than reality, especially if talks of a general arms deal amnesty (septel) and ANC attacks on the judiciary gain traction. END COMMENT. BOST