South Africa: Minerals and Energy Newsletter "THE ASSAY" -

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 PRETORIA 001387 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE PLEASE PASS USAID STATE PLEASE PASS USGS DEPT FOR AF/S, EEB/ESC AND CBA DOE FOR SPERL AND PERSON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EPET ENRG EMIN EINV EIND ETRD ELAB KHIV SF SUBJECT: South Africa: Minerals and Energy Newsletter "THE ASSAY" - Issue 6, May 2008 PRETORIA 00001387 001.2 OF 006 This cable is not for Internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) Introduction: The purpose of this newsletter, initiated in January 2004, is to highlight minerals and energy developments in South Africa. This includes trade and investment as well as supply. South Africa hosts world-class deposits of gold, diamonds, platinum group metals, chromium, zinc, titanium, vanadium, iron, manganese, antimony, vermiculite, zircon, alumino-silicates, fluorspar and phosphate rock, and is a major exporter of steam coal. South Africa is also a leading producer and exporter of ferroalloys of chromium, vanadium, and manganese. The information contained in the newsletters is based on public sources and does not reflect the views of the United States Government. End introduction. -------------- HOT NEWS -------------- -------------- NERSA Approves Limited Power Price Hike -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The National Energy Regulator of SA (NERSA) granted Eskom an additional 13.3% average increase in electricity tariffs in addition to the 14.2% already approved in December 2007. NERSA chairman Collin Matjila said NERSA decided to allow Eskom to recover additional primary energy costs of $353 million through its electricity tariff. The increase is well below the 53% (real) or 60% (nominal) increase that Eskom had asked for. Two weeks ago NERSA hearings showed households would face a 76% increase in their municipal bills, and many industrial and commercial customers would be ruined, if the full 53% was granted. Municipalities had also expressed concern that the high prices would cause payment levels to drop and cases of illegal connections and tampering to escalate. However, NERSA's decision to not approve a higher rate could cause international credit rating agencies to downgrade Eskom's credit rating, increasing the future cost of Eskom's massive capital expenditure program estimated to be more than $40 billion over the next five years. Another key factor in this decision will be whether the SAG decides to increase or bring forward its capital support for Eskom. -------------- Embassy's Visit to DRC-Zambia Copperbelt -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Minerals/Energy Officer and Specialist completed an extensive two week mission May 12-23 to assess developments in the DRC-Zambia copperbelt, visiting six mines in DRC and four mines in Zambia, some of which are new mega-projects under development. A number of American, Canadian, and Australian companies have made substantial investments to bring extensive copper reserves into production, despite challenges associated with government intervention, logistics, power, and skills development. DRC and Zambia are competing to see which government can interfere more, with Zambia's new onerous tax regime slightly trumping the uncertainty associated with the DRC mining license review. These A-list companies are committed to social development, but Chinese and Indian investors are much less committed to social development Qand Indian investors are much less committed to social development and safety standards. -------------- MINING -------------- -------------- Old SA Gold Mines Never Die -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Central Witswatersrand Rand, on which the city of Johannesburg was established, once hosted many of the world's biggest and richest gold mines. These included well-known names such as City Deep, Village Main, Robinson Deep, Crown Mines and Consolidated Main Reef (CMR). All have closed, but they still have a visible presence denoted by old shaft head-gears and waste dumps that characterized Johannesburg in the past, but are rapidly giving way to city expansion and dump reworking. Economic factors such as PRETORIA 00001387 002.2 OF 006 depth, water, gold price, and old technology were responsible for closure of the mines, rather than their running out of gold ore. Most of the mines produced from above 2,500 meter depth, which is relatively shallow compared to mines on the West Rand that are producing from depths approaching 4,000 meters. The new Central Rand Gold Company (CRG) was established to prospect the area between City Deep in the east to CMR in the west, initially in search of unmined and accessible close-to-surface ore that was left behind by the old miners. ¶5. (SBU) CRG executives stated at the company's annual general meeting that exploration results indicated that the "mine" could comfortably produce 100,000 ounces of gold per month from ore left in old mine workings. The company's updated work program, environmental management, and social and labor plans have been submitted to the Department of Minerals and Energy, along with its application for mining rights, and the new order mining right is expected to be granted by July or August. CRG CEO Greg James said the company had completed its metallurgical feasibility study, its base-line mine design, as well as the mining plant. He said that once the required licenses were granted, CRG expected to start trial mining by October. The plant is capable of processing 12,000 tons of ore per month and full-scale gold production is planned for the first quarter of 2009. Gold production targets are: 100,000 ounces in 2009, 250,000 ounces by 2010, and one-million ounces by 2012. -------------- ENERGY -------------- -------------- Costs May Delay Power from Botswana -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Plans by Canadian company CIC Energy to build a new coal-based energy complex in Botswana have already been delayed by a year and further delays are pending. Any further delay in the power project could mean an extension of South Africa's power problems. The Mmamabula power station was expected to come on stream from 2013, with full output in 2014. The first phase of the Mmamabula Complex was to consist of a 2,500 megawatt power station fed by a ten million-ton-per-year coal mine. Cost escalation, increased project scale, and tightness in the market for power generating equipment has meant the coal-fired facility can not be completed as planned. ¶7. (SBU) Moody's rating agency said the Mmamabula energy project was in danger of being scrapped or down-sized after costs soared to almost triple the initial estimate of $6bn to $16 billion. CIC's COO reported that the principal electricity off-takers, South Africa's utility Eskom, which plans to take 75% of the power generated, and the Botswana Power Corporation, were approached to cover the additional cost and risk. They have not come to an agreement as yet and this could present problems when seeking finance for the project. -------------- Mining Code Facilitates Coking Coal Mine -------------- ¶8. (SBU) South Africa is well endowed with steam coal, but has limited quantities of coking coal, which is essential in the Qlimited quantities of coking coal, which is essential in the steel-making process. Some coking coal is produced in the northern part of the country -- about one-fifth of what South Africa's steel works require -- but most is imported from Australia at a cost of some $700 million per year. All types of coals have escalated in price over the past year, but steel makers have seen the price of hard coking coal triple to $300 per ton. Significant deposits of coking coal have been discovered by Rio Tinto and a few junior companies in the under-explored Soutpansberg coalfield in Limpopo Province. If these deposits prove viable, South Africa could be transformed from a net importer to a net exporter of coking coal and save some $700 million in foreign exchange, reduce the cost of coal to current importers such as ArcelorMittal, and create needed employment, social services and infrastructure in the region. PRETORIA 00001387 003.2 OF 006 ¶9. (SBU) Previous lack of rail infrastructure in the northern province meant that it was cheaper to import coal, but the Soutpansberg coalfield is now served by Transnet rail which links with Richards Bay Coal Terminal via the Vanderbijlpark steelworks, with an optional link to the Maputo port in Mozambique. One of the new coal juniors, Coal of Africa (CoAL),is reported to have two projects under way in the Soutpansberg that will produce a total of 6.65 million tons per year of hard coking coal. Global steel giant ArcelorMittal is South Africa's biggest steel producer and has entered into an off-take agreement with CoAL, which will secure a minimum 2.5 million tons per annum of coal for its South African operations, with the option to increase this to 5 million tons in the future. ArcelorMittal also concluded a $130 million deal to acquire 17.8% of CoAL, guaranteeing it a secure supply and some influence on CoAL's Board. The agreement will take effect from commencement of mining operations at both mines, which is expected by the end of 2009, with full production by 2011. CoAL Managing Director Simon Farrell said the company was drawn to South Africa by the "use it or lose it" mineral rights system, which opened opportunities for junior mining companies to get projects previously sat on by the local majors. -------------- New Cape Gas Well Discovery -------------- ¶10. (SBU) State-owned PetroSA has announced the discovery of a new gas well off the southern Cape coast. The well is 95 kilometers south of Mossel Bay and was found through PetroSA's $625-million "Project Jabulani" initiative, which is focused on drilling around existing gas and oil fields in the area. Upstream New Ventures company's Vice President Everton September said the successful well was started in March about 1.7 kilometers southwest of the known limits of the E-M producing field. It was drilled to a total depth of 2,856 meters. The gas-yielding formation is 28.4 meters thick and represents a new previously untapped deposit of natural gas. September said that the drilling program would shift to the Oryx field to test for oil near the existing producing wells in that field. -------------- PRECIOUS METALS -------------- -------------- SA Platinum May Have a Competitor -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Mitsui Mining and Smelting Company official said the company plans to start commercial production of its new, less-costly, silver auto-catalyst that they believe will replace expensive platinum in 2011/12. The use of silver would enable the company to cut metal costs by more than 90%, which was the primary aim of the five-year-old project. Senior Mitsui Sales Department official Kentaro Kato said that after testing several metals, silver showed the most promise, was much cheaper, and had a comparable ability (to platinum) to remove sulfur particulate emissions from diesel exhausts. Kato said the company planned to begin commercial production for application in construction machinery diesel engines Qproduction for application in construction machinery diesel engines and other industrial equipment to meet stricter emission standards planned for 2012. The new technology will be used to manufacture diesel particulate filters (DPFs). He could not say how much silver would be needed for each catalyst as this depended on the particular engine characteristics. ¶12. (SBU) South Africa produces more than 80% of the world's platinum. Development of the new silver-based catalyst could have wide implications for the platinum mining industry and the auto industry, which is struggling under cost pressures from higher metal prices for platinum, steel and aluminum. The major industrial use of platinum is in catalysts, particularly for diesel vehicles. Platinum's much cheaper sister metal palladium is also used to filter out carbon monoxide and particulate emissions, and is particularly effective as a catalyst for gasoline engines. The world's top platinum refiner and distributor Johnson Matthey said in a mid-May report that the metal could spike at a record high of PRETORIA 00001387 004.2 OF 006 $2,500 an ounce this year. Platinum has already jumped 50% from the beginning of the year and hit a record high $2,290 per ounce on March 4. Silver is currently trading at around $18-19 per ounce. Silver, copper and nickel all have catalytic properties but because of their short working lives require frequent replacement; platinum group metals are never used up and are recyclable. -------------- Refrigeration Key to Future Platinum Supply -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Witwatersrand gold mines require refrigeration at depths below 2,500 meters. However, platinum mines in the Bushveld Complex, which has a much higher thermal gradient, need refrigeration below 1,000 meters. As platinum mines get deeper they need to cool intake air to maintain reasonable working conditions. Without refrigeration, working conditions become too hot for miners to maintain concentration over a full shift and there is the attendant risk of death from heatstroke. Refrigeration will require a big increase in power consumption (and costs),which may not be available in the short to medium-term as power utility Eskom battles to meet burgeoning demand. As an example of the amount of power needed, Northam Platinum, which is already deep enough to require intake air refrigeration, uses around 40% of its power allocation just to keep the cooling systems running. ¶14. (SBU) South Africa supplies some 80% of the world's platinum, mined mostly above 1,000 meters. Nevertheless, the Anglo Platinum (Angloplats) and Impala Platinum (Implats),world's two largest producers, are both approaching mining depths where refrigeration will be vital to maintain safe working conditions and productivity. If power to the mines remains at 95% of normal levels for the foreseeable future, both Angloplats and Implats may be unable to run refrigeration plants on grid power and will require some form of additional power to mine the deeper levels. This would have a serious impact on production costs and platinum prices. Current platinum prices, if maintained, could probably cover these costs. On the brighter side, platinum is not lost in usage and the recycling of catalytic converters is likely to supply increasing quantities of platinum group metals in the future. -------------- DIAMONDS -------------- -------------- De Beers Denies Breaching Export Rules -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Diamond giant De Beers has again rejected repeated allegations by the SAG that it irregularly exported large quantities of diamonds to London during the 1990s, prior to the 1994 elections that brought the ANC-lead government to power. Reuters reported that the SA Parliament had decided to form a new task team to investigate De Beers' records, despite claims by De Beers and a senior South African government official that the dispute was settled last year. The SAG alleged that an amount of up to $125 million in outstanding taxes might arise should De Beers' records indicate a breach. A De Beers spokesman said that when the Qindicate a breach. A De Beers spokesman said that when the allegations were first raised in 2005, its Managing Director at the time had strongly denied the insinuation that the company had exported diamonds unlawfully; had improperly obtained an exemption from export duties (15%); had exported 19 million carats of diamonds in 1994; and owed the State billions in taxes. The De Beers spokesman said the company's position remained the same and that De Beers always complied with the regulations of the 1986 Diamond Act, helped maintain a globally competitive South African diamond-cutting industry, and continued to supply both clients and the secondary market. -------------- AFRICAN MINING and ENERGY -------------- -------------- PRETORIA 00001387 005.2 OF 006 China's Engagement in Zimbabwe -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Chinese firms have made few investments in Zimbabwe, despite the publicity surrounding the signing of numerous Memoranda of Understanding. State-owned China Aerotechnology Import and Export Corporation (CATIC) entered into an investment understanding with the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA) valued at US$400 million for the refurbishment of power plants in 2005, but never put any funds in the project. Chinese construction companies entered the Zimbabwe market in the 1980s with the building of the National Sports Stadium in Harare by the Gansu Province Construction Company, but financing shortfalls on the part of the GOZ have derailed subsequent construction projects. ¶17. (SBU) Chinese International Water and Electrical (CWE) was awarded a tender in 2007 to construct the Gwayi-Shangani dam and lay a 32-kilometer pipeline linking the Mtshabezi and Mzingwane dams in drought-prone Matabeleland province. Construction came to a halt when the GOZ failed to meet the "cash-upfront" demand from the Chinese company. The GOZ also failed to raise funds to purchase 300,000 tons of cement required for the project. The Jiang Su Province Construction Company also stopped refurbishment work on the National Sports Stadium due to non-payment for work done and lack of cement. The Zimbabwean Chamber of Mines stated that although the Chinese have explored platinum deposits in Zimbabwe, they have not developed any mines. On the contrary, they appear to have on-sold some claims obtained in barter deals with the GOZ. Similarly, the press reported in 2007 that Sino-Steel had bought a 67% stake in chrome manufacturer Zimasco. Price and payment terms were not disclosed. -------------- DRC Restricts Unprocessed Mineral Exports -------------- ¶18. (SBU) The DRC's mineral-rich Katanga Province has threatened to extend restrictions on mineral exports to include a ban on copper concentrates if mining companies did not move to increase local processing. Katanga Governor Moise Katumbi said only companies that had already begun to build smelters would be allowed to restart exports, after being inspected by a team of engineers. He had previously halted exports of cobalt concentrate in May saying mining companies were flouting a year-old ban on the export of ore. Mines Minister Bartelemy Mumba Gama said the team would also be checking on the progress of construction of copper processing plants and that copper concentrate exports might be stopped if mining companies had not begun to build smelters. DRC closed facilities belonging to Congo Dongfang International Mining, a subsidiary of China's Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., at the end of May, accusing it of breaking the ban on ore exports. -------------- Zambian Power Plant Study by World Bank -------------- ¶19. (SBU) World Bank official Javier Calvio said the bank had launched a feasibility study for the construction of a 700-megawatt Qlaunched a feasibility study for the construction of a 700-megawatt hydro-electricity generation plant in Zambia, which would ease power shortages across southern Africa. The project is to be known as the Kafue Gorge Lower Hydroelectric Project and will be the largest in Africa to be financed under a public-private sector arrangement. The study will cost $6 million and be completed during 2008. If viable, physical construction of the power station should start in the next three years, cost $1 billion and be financed by the Zambian Government, the International Finance Corp (IFC),the Africa Development Bank and the Development Bank of South Africa. Most countries in southern Africa, including Zambia and South Africa, have experienced power shortages over the past year that has led to electricity rationing and blackouts. Zambia's electricity deficit is some 400 megawatts and the new station will fill the gap and allow for exports to the region and South Africa. The Kafue Gorge is located in central Zambia and the power generated would be fed into the Southern Africa Power Pool grid that serves more than a dozen countries in the region. PRETORIA 00001387 006.2 OF 006 TEITELBAUM