SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTION MONITORS FEWER THAN EXPECTED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001310

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2018
TAGS: PREL SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTION MONITORS FEWER THAN EXPECTED

PRETORIA 00001310 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Raymond L. Brown. Reason
s 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. South Africa has increased its election
monitoring team by only ten members, bringing the total to 70
observers. An advance team of 20 observers left on 9 June,
while the remaining 50 are meant to depart on 20 June.
However, SAG's DFA is considering a proposal by the Institute
for Democracy in South Africa (IDASA) to tack on an
additional 40 monitors from civil society, provided they pay
their own costs. Members of IDASA are seeking Embassy
funding, and have complained about the lack of interest by
DFA officials. END SUMMARY.

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SAG BARELY EXPANDS ELECTION MONITORING TEAM
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2. (C) POLOFF spoke to DFA's Zimbabwe desk officer Eden Reid
on 13 June to verify the number of South African election
monitors for the upcoming 27 June run-off in Zimbabwe. Reid
said that the official delegation will number 70 and be
"multi-sectoral," meaning Parliamentarians, government
officials, and members of civil society organizations are
included. An advance team of 20 observers left on 9 June and
the remaining 50 will depart on 20 June.


3. (C) This number, however, does not track with statements
from DFA's Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Ambassador
Kingsley Mamabolo, who is leading SAG's election monitoring
team. On 28 May, Mamabolo told diplomats at a South Africa
Liaison Office event on Zimbabwe that every SADC country was
encouraged to double its number of election monitors to
Zimbabwe, adding that South Africa would double its team from
60 to 120 members. When POLOFF told Reid she was under
impression that the SAG's delegation would be larger, he
said, "South Africa can't be expected to do everything!" He
then said that other SADC countries "needed to pull their
weight," but in the same breath added that there is no
capacity in the region to do so. "We'll be lucky if
Swaziland or Malawi sends two people," he complained.

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CIVIL SOCIETY OFFERS ADDITIONAL OBSERVERS
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4. (C) However, Reid also stated that Mamabolo is considering
the Institute for Democracy in South Africa's (IDASA) offer
to add 40 additional observers from civil society. Of the 40
additional members, 30 will come from the South African
Litigation Center, which is affiliated with Open Society and
famous for lodging the legal complaint that stopped the
Chinese vessel from off-loading arms destined for Zimbabwe,
and 10 from the South African NGO Coalition. If approved,
they will be officially considered part of SAG's observation
team and be accredited by SADC. However, SAG is not willing
to finance any of these new members. IDASA Director Ivor
Jenkins called POLOFF on 11 June to solicit Embassy funds for
the additional observers, adding that they really had to
press DFA to even consider their proposal. Jenkins said he
got the impression that funding was only part of the issue,
and that Reid, who is a junior desk officer, was also pushing
back because he did not want "extra work." Indeed, Reid made
it perfectly clear he is unhappy at even the prospect of the
team being expanded, because "all of the work will fall on
me," he complained.

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Q -------------- --------------
SAFETY AND FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION ON PEOPLE'S MINDS
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5. (C) Chris Gevers, IDASA's Project Coordinator told POLOFF
on 10 June that he suspects the SAG will have trouble getting
many of its original 60 monitors to return for the run-off.
First, he said that many fear for their safety given the
deteriorating security situation. Second, he added that many
do not want to have to toe the SAG/SADC line. (NOTE: Reid
spent several minutes emphasizing to POLOFF that everyone on
the SAG team will have to "abide by the code of conduct," and
that the SAG must present a "united front." END NOTE) Last,
he said he suspects DFA did not put in the effort to expand
the team because Mamabolo has been out of the country so much
negotiating the Burundi conflict, but also because the SAG
expected both MDC and ZANU-PF to enter into a GNU before the

PRETORIA 00001310 002.2 OF 002


run-off.


6. (C) IDASA also will be sending an additional 20 people
from "IDASA and partners," who will not be accredited.
However, most of the original IDASA team members will not
return, he said, because they entered Zimbabwe on tourist
visas and have serious security concerns. Those who do
return will likely be Zimbabwean expats, he added.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Notwithstanding Minister in the Presidency Essop
Pahad's comments today that free and fair elections in
Zimbabwe are still possible, South Africa's role in the
run-off is off to a rocky start. The number of election
monitors is well below expectations, and the fact that civil
society is trying to make up SAG's shortfall at its own
expense suggests a lack of political will. Whether SAG
accepts the additional team members is uncertain. Mamabolo
appears to genuinely care about Zimbabwe and would probably
prefer an expanded team. However, accepting additional
monitors from civil society runs the risk that SAG will not
present a "united front," something Mamabolo strongly
believes in.
BOST