ZUMA CAMP MAY BE LOOKING TO OUST MBEKI

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 001046

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: ZUMA CAMP MAY BE LOOKING TO OUST MBEKI

Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).


1. (C) On 14 May, POLOFF met with Zuma advisor Mo Shaik who
told her that Zuma is likely to assume the national
Presidency before March or April next year, when
parliamentary elections would normally be held. When asked
if the Zuma camp had enough votes in Parliament
(three-quarters) needed to call a vote of no-confidence,
Shaik replied, "that would not be an issue." However, he
also asked POLOFF if she had ever considered a scenario where
Mbeki's entire Cabinet deserted him, forcing him to resign.
PolOff asked why Mbeki couldn't just appoint a new Cabinet,
but Shaik answered with another question, asking "who would
join Mbeki's cabinet now? It would be suicide." He also
added that momentum is building in the ANC for Mbeki's
removal and that the business community was "begging" them to
do it.


2. (C) POLOFF also met on 15 May with a French diplomat, who
confirmed that he was hearing the same thing from the Zuma
camp and some other diplomats (especially the Germans),but
said he did not believe Mbeki would back down so easily. He
added that there is no evidence that Mbeki is willing to cave
to the Zuma camp, pointing out that Mbeki is still putting
off ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe's inclusion into
his cabinet. (NOTE: When POLOFF asked Shaik what position
Motlanthe will assume, he snidely said, "Why don't you ask
your friend Mbeki?" END NOTE)


3. (C) BIO NOTE. Meeting Shaik is always work, but this
meeting was particularly pointed and painful, with Shaik
coming across as vengeful, insecure, and antagonistic. Over
time, POLOFF has managed to build some rapport with him. For
example, during PolOff's last meeting, Shaik admitted he was
looking forward to the birth of his first child (whom he
jokingly referred to as "the little dictator"),and even sent
PolOff an SMS when his wife went into labor. However, during
this meeting (which he called),he refused to be drawn into
any personal conversation. Instead, Shaik spent much of the
hour and a half berating the United States in general (for
"never recognizing a bus when it hits us"),but also the FBI
and State Department in particular. He made a point of
telling POLOFF that "he knows all about the FBI's role in
selling South Africa the idea of a law-enforcement agency
with no oversight" i.e., the Scorpions),going so far as to
name former NLEA officers. He implied the FBI purposefully
sold South Africa an idea that the U.S. would never allow on
its own soil. He also repeatedly criticized the recent trip
by Assistant Secretary Frazer for coming to the continent to
talk to leaders about Zimbabwe, calling U.S. officials
"stupid and arrogant."


4. (C) COMMENT. Shaik is right in pointing out that there
are many in the Zuma camp who wish to take full revenge on
Mbeki and end his tenure early. Shaik, more than anyone,
likely personalizes the issue given the fact he blames the
Scorpions for sending his brother to prison (not because he
was guilty). However, it is unclear if the Zuma camp has
reached a tipping point, especially within Mbeki's cabinet,
which has remained virtually unchanged for his entire tenure.
The Zuma camp has definitely gained a number of converts
since Polokwane simply because people want to stay on during
the next administration, but whether it is enough to oust
Mbeki is unclear.
QMbeki is unclear.


5. (C) COMMENT CONT'D. However, there are also advantages to
allowing Mbeki to stay in power for his full term, a fact
even Shaik has admitted in previous meetings. Mbeki has had
better days politically, but the Zuma camp, for all its talk,
is unlikely to come in and fix all of South Africa's problems
overnight. Combating crime, solving South Africa's
electricity shortages, increasing employment, improving
service delivery, and convincing Zimbabwean President Mugabe
to step down are not easy fixes. The fact is the longer
Mbeki stays in power, the better Zuma will look -- at least
in the short-term -- when elections come around next year.
BOST