MBEKI TO VISIT ZIMBABWE IN EFFORT TO CONCLUDE SADC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000100 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S HARARE FOR G. WARREN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2018 TAGS: PREL ZI SF SUBJECT: MBEKI TO VISIT ZIMBABWE IN EFFORT TO CONCLUDE SADC TALKS REF: HARARE 0016 Classified By: Ambassador Eric M. Bost. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) South African President Thabo Mbeki will visit Zimbabwe January 17-18 in an effort to conclude the SADC political facilitation, according to Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Treasurer Roy Bennett and U.K. diplomats. Mbeki met with the key negotiators for the MDC and ZANU-PF in Pretoria o/a January 14-15, and told them the negotiation deadlock was "unacceptable." (NOTE: Per reftel, the parties are reportedly deadlocked over the timing of the elections and implementation of a constitution. END NOTE.) ¶2. (C) According to Bennett and IDASA analyst Sydney Masamvu (who spoke with MDC SecGen Tendai Biti),Mbeki presented the MDC and ZANU-PF with three options to break the deadlock: -- Hold a referendum on a new constitution in February, followed by "free and fair" elections in March; -- Hold a referendum on a constitution first, and delay the elections to a later date (likely June/July); or -- Pass an interim constitution in parliament (without a referendum),delay elections (likely June/July),then hold a constitutional referendum. Bennett noted that the MDC would prefer the second option, whereas ZANU-PF would likely favor the first. However, ZANU-PF would take a significant risk with the first option, since the constitutional referendum could build momentum for the MDC and help level the playing field for the elections (although time is short). Masamvu said the first option was meant to force Mugabe's hand if he insisted on a March election date. ¶3. (C) If Mugabe does not agree to one of these three options, Mbeki would report to SADC that he is not cooperating with the facilitation, according to Bennett and Masamvu. ¶4. (U) Separately, Irish PM Ahern met with President Mbeki in Pretoria on January 15. Ahern said in a press conference on the 15th, which Mbeki did not attend, that South Africa was "engaged in some of the final aspects" of the SADC negotiations. Mbeki "is working very hard on this and is hopeful that he will resolve some of the remaining obstacles," Ahern claimed. ¶5. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Harare. BOST