STANDOFF CONTINUES AS CZECH PARLIAMENT VOTES DOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000792 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2018 TAGS: MOPS PREL PGOV EUN NATO AF EZ SUBJECT: STANDOFF CONTINUES AS CZECH PARLIAMENT VOTES DOWN AFGHAN DEPLOYMENT BILL REF: A. PRAGUE 779 ¶B. 18 DECEMBER 2008 PRAGUE DAILY ¶C. 22 DECEMBER 2008 STRONG-TRATENSEK E-MAILS (NOTAL) ¶D. STATE 108855 Classified By: DCM Mary Thompson-Jones, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The political standoff on Czech troop deployments to Afghanistan and other foreign missions between PM Mirek Topolanek and main opposition Social Democrat (CSSD) leader Jiri Paroubek continued on December 19, when parliament's lower house failed to approve a resolution authorizing deployments past December 31 (the Czech Senate has already approved). PM Topolanek's government immediately temporarily extended the deployments for 60 days. Parliament can reconsider the deployment issue, but there is currently no date set. The standoff could also affect Czech security support for Afghan elections. In the end, continued Czech deployments will depend on an agreement between the PM and Paroubek; given the level of distrust between the two, such a deal may not come quickly. End Summary. Agreement Fails Amid Procedural Squabble -------------- ¶2. (C) Opposition leader Paroubek had insisted that he would not release his MPs to support the resolution unless PM Topolanek's Civic Democrat (ODS) government agreed to support CSSD's health care reform package (ref A). The government agreed (ref B),and parliament took up both measures on December 19. ¶3. (C) However, the CSSD and ODS could not agree on the order in which the two measures would be considered. Amid this procedural squabble, parliament voted on deployments first, CSSD refused to budge, and the resolution only got 99 votes, two shy of the required 101. The lower house then approved the health care measure, with support from some of PM Topolanek's own MPs. Immediately following the vote, PM Topolanek's cabinet met in special session and extended deployments for 60 days, the first time any Czech government has invoked this constitutional power (ref C). (Note: Czech legal experts doubt that the government may repeatedly invoke this provision to indefinitely extend deployments. End Note.) No Date for Re-Vote -------------- ¶4. (C) In order for parliament to reconsider the deployment issue, the government must now draft a new resolution and re-send it to parliament. The government could try to sweeten the deal for the opposition by proposing even lower numbers for Afghanistan than in the failed resolution. ¶5. (C) Parliament is currently out of session; the next regular session is set to begin February 3. Parliament could convene in special session before then, but there is currently no date set and calling a special session would be pointless unless the government can be sure of opposition support. CSSD MP Jan Svoboda, deputy chair of the defense committee, told us after the December 19 vote that he does not expect a special session before the end of January. Military Planning -------------- ¶6. (C) Media quoted Czech Chief of General Staff Vlastimil Picek as saying that he would have to order the beginning of withdrawal if there is no parliamentary approval by the end of January. According to Defense Ministry sources, PM Topolanek called each contingent commander on December 20, telling them that there is no change in their current missions. However, privately, Czech General Staff contacts have told us they are drafting "contingency plans" for a mass redeployment, but that such plans are secret and only to be used in a worst case scenario. ¶7. (U) According to Czech media, the Czech Government will propose a new plan with reduced numbers to the Czech parliament by mid-January. This reduced plan will cap Czech troops in Afghanistan in 2009 to around 500, essentially the same number they currently have on the ground. PRAGUE 00000792 002 OF 002 Support for Afghan Elections -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The standoff could also affect Czech support for Afghan elections, as yet unscheduled. Emboff conveyed points in ref D to Czech MFA desk officer for Afghanistan, Jan Husak. Husak indicated that upcoming elections in Afghanistan, as well as the anticipated security support needed from ISAF is an issue that his office, as well as the MFA Security Policy department is following closely. He noted that the Czech NATO mission has been discussing this with NATO counterparts. He also noted that EU Special Representative Ettori Sequi would be in Prague for discussions with Czech MFA officials on December 22. Finally, he also commented that Afghanistan is a topic that the EU will discuss at the January 26-27 General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC). ¶9. (C) Comment: This standoff is about Czech domestic politics. In the end, Czech deployments will depend on another agreement between Topolanek and Paroubek. Topolanek is committed to deployments and needs no further pressure to do the right thing. Paroubek is committed to personal domestic political advantage. The December 19 procedural fight reflects the depth of distrust between the two, and suggests that any such deal will not be quick in coming. End Comment. Thompson-Jones