CZECH MISSILE DEFENSE VOTE: 101 VOTES STILL IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000628

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH MISSILE DEFENSE VOTE: 101 VOTES STILL IN
SIGHT

REF: A. 9 SEPTEMBER 2008 PRAGUE DAILY

B. 11 SEPTEMBER 2008 PRAGUE DAILY

C. PRAGUE 613

D. PRAGUE 604

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Mary Thompson-Jones, reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The bizarre blackmail scandal roiling Czech
PM Topolanek,s Civic Democratic Party (ODS) does not
currently threaten support for missile defense legislation,
nor does it currently seem likely to bring down the Czech
government, although the margins of support for both remain
narrow. ODS MPs angered at MP Topolanek over the scandal are
not changing their pro-missile defense stance. At this
point, opposition Social Democrat Party (CSSD) leader Jiri
Paroubek can come close, but probably cannot muster, the 101
votes needed to win a no-confidence vote. The government
remains committed to bringing missile defense legislation to
a vote before the end of the year. End Summary.

Bizarre Scandal Does Not Erode MD Support
--------------


2. (U) A bizarre blackmail scandal that broke in early
September has resulted in the resignation of ODS MP Jan
Morava, the resignation from the party caucus (but not the
party itself) of ODS MPs Jan Schwippel and Juraj Raninec, and
the alienation of ODS MP Vlastimil Tlusty. The scandal
started when a media outlet caught Morava, a Topolanek ally,
in an attempt to buy fake compromising photos of Tlusty, a
Topolanek rival. Tlusty was a willing participant in
manufacturing the photos.


3. (C) While spectacular, the scandal has not yet eroded ODS
votes in parliament in support of missile defense
legislation. Morava will be replaced by an ODS reliable (ref
a). Schwippel has publicly and privately said he still
firmly supports missile defense despite the scandal, and
privately, that DFM Pojar confirmed to Schwippel that Tlusty
and Raninec still do as well (ref b). At a September 24
breakfast at the Ambassador,s residence, even Prague,s ODS
Mayor Pavel Bem, another Topolanek rival, asserted that he
was &100 percent certain8 that &Moravagate8 would not
affect support for missile defense in parliament.


4. (C) That said, the margin of support for missile defense
legislation in parliament still remains razor-thin ) for
now, probably exactly the 101 votes needed for ratification
and, as DFM Pojar told the Ambassador on September 15, that
number is ¬ secure8 (ref c).

101 No-Confidence Votes Close, But Hard to Come By
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Opposition CSSD leader Jiri Paroubek has vowed to
bring a no-confidence vote to parliament after the second
round of regional and Senate elections on October 24 and 25.
This would be the third no-confidence vote since Topolanek,s
government took office in January 2007; the most recent vote
was in April. A successful no-confidence vote could well
derail efforts to bring missile defense legislation to a
vote, despite MP support on the merits.


6. (C) However, at this point, despite the vicious ODS
infighting, Paroubek does not appear to have the 101 votes
required by the Czech Constitution to topple the government.
He can count on 70 CSSD and 26 Communists to support a
no-confidence vote. After that, Paroubek can come close, but
five votes against the government will be hard to come by:

-- CSSD defectors Michal Pohanka and Milos Melcak voted with
the government in April. CSSD deputies Evzen Snitily and
Petr Wolf voted against the government in April, but have
since left the CSSD and have no reason to side with Paroubek.
Snitily has avoided most votes since leaving CSSD.

-- Despite being ODS malcontents, Schwippel and Raninec have
said they would not bring down the Topolanek government if it
would lead to a &leftist8 (read: CSSD) government; they
say they will vote against the Topolanek government only if
there is a clear &alternative.8 So far, there is none.

-- ODS malcontent Tlusty is a wild card. The scandal has
left Topolanek and the ODS leadership furious at Tlusty.
Tlusty,s local ODS chapter refused to expel him from the

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party, but Tlusty has been shorn of power within the ODS, is
unlikely to regain his stature for the foreseeable future,
and would be out of national politics if a no-confidence vote
resulted in early elections. Yet emotion, and his rivalry
with Topolanek, could get the better of Tlusty.

-- Coalition partner Green Party MPs Olga Zubova and Vera
Jakubkova are openly dissatisfied with Green Party leader
Martin Bursik. Zubova was tangentially involved in the
byzantine scandal (Morava also sought compromising
information on her daughter) and has in the past suggested
withdrawing from the government (ref d). However, both
Zubova and Jakubkova voted with the government in April.
Despite intense media speculation about their intentions,
neither Zubova nor Jakubkova has indicated publicly she would
switch and vote against the government.

-- Coalition partner Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak
Peoples, Party (KDU/CSL) MP Ludvik Hovorka is the most
uncertain vote in his party (Hovorka is also sitting on the
fence on missile defense); however, he too supported the
government in April.


7. (C) Comment: Support for both missile defense and
Topolanek,s government remain close, but for the moment,
sufficient. The government remains committed to bringing
missile defense legislation to a vote before the end of the
year. Post remains cautiously optimistic that both Topolanek
and his shaky coalition government will survive a tumultuous
autumn. The fighting within ODS could, however, complicate
the government's ability to pass other legislative priorities
including tax reform, changes to the electoral law, and
church restitution. End Comment.
Graber