UPCOMING CZECH EU PRESIDENCY - FACING TREATY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000509

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

EUR/ERA FOR DEAN AND GIAUQUE, EUR/CE FOR TRATENSEK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV EZ EUN
SUBJECT: UPCOMING CZECH EU PRESIDENCY - FACING TREATY
HURDLES

REF: A. PRAGUE DAILY DATED 7/25/08

B. PARIS POINTS DATED 6/20/2008

C. PRAGUE DAILY DATED 6/17/2008

D. PRAGUE 384

Classified By: Acting Polec Counselor Martina Strong for reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Czech Prime Minister Topolanek finds
himself with little room to maneuver on ratification of the
EU Lisbon treaty. Countervailing pressures from his own
Civic Democratic Party (ODS),President Klaus, his coalition
government, the domestic opposition, and the EU have left
Topolanek between the proverbial rock and a hard place. The
ongoing Czech Constitutional Court review of the treaty has
given Topolanek a temporary reprieve, but the court is
expected to rule as early as September. Topolanek's recent
statements indicate that he will move forward with
ratification of the Lisbon treaty following the court ruling
and before the Czech EU presidency. It remains to be seen
whether Topolanek manages to engineer a Lisbon treaty for
Missile Defense bargain. End Summary.

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French and Polish Pressure - Not Well Received
--------------

2. (SBU) Sarkozy has made ratification of the Lisbon treaty
by all EU member states a top priority of the French
Presidency. However, Czech PM Topolanek rebuffed French
pressure during Sarkozy's June visit to Prague, citing the as
yet undecided Czech Constitutional Court review of the
treaty. Recently, comments by French officials such as FM
Kouchner that further EU enlargement (a top priority for the
Czech EU Presidency) is not possible without ratification
have been condemned by GOCR officials as veiled threats.
(Note: While perhaps politically true given French and German
opposition to expansion without adoption of the reform
treaty, the Czechs maintain that legally expansion is still
possible under the existing framework. End Note.)


3. (SBU) The other recent ham-fisted Elysee comments that
"Mr. Sarkozy won assurances from Polish President Kaczynski
that he would personally help to get the treaty ratified by
everybody," also have not gone over well with the Czechs.
According to PM Topolanek, "France's statements are -- I do
not want to say blackmail, but very strong pressure." Polish
President Kaczynski did indeed come to visit Czech President
Vaclav Klaus on July 24 (Ref. A). It appears, however, that
Klaus has not changed his opinion that without action by
Ireland, it would be a mistake for ratification to continue
in the remaining EU member states.

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Topolanek's Domestic Challenges
--------------

4. (C) Prime Minister Topolanek is in a tight spot given the
political dynamics within his coalition, but most
particularly within his own Civic Democratic Party (ODS). In
order for the GOCR to ratify the Lisbon Treaty, Topolanek
needs to muster sufficient support in both houses of the
parliament. Support of Topolanek's coalition partners, the
Christian Democrats and the Greens, is assured, but the ODS
has a strong euroskeptic wing that is generally opposed to
the Lisbon Treaty. The Czech Republic's
euroskeptic-in-chief, President Klaus is the founder and
honorary chairman of ODS and continues to wield considerable
influence over the party, especially on EU-related issues.
Many ODS MPs and Senators will therefor look to Klaus before
the ratification vote. Indeed, a group of euroskeptic ODS
Senators sent the Lisbon Treaty to the Constitutional Court
for review. In this particular case, however, Topolanek
welcomed the delay because he was not prepared politically to
wage the ratification battle in the first half of the year.


--------------
Constitutional Court and Irish "No" Provide Breathing Room
--------------

5. (SBU) The Constitutional Court's decision on the Lisbon
Treaty is expected sometime this fall. The review is
noteworthy for several reasons: 1) this is the first time the
Court is ruling on the constitutionality of an international
treaty; 2) the Topolanek government and President Klaus
submitted opposing legal briefs to the Court; and 3) the
second international agreement that the Court may be asked to
review could be the Ballistic Missile Defense Agreement,
expected to be ratified later this year. Although the
Constitutional Court is not required to rule by a certain
dated, Chief Justice Pavel Rychetsky has told Embassy

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officials that he would like to conclude this case prior to
September 15, when he is expected to take extended medical
leave. If the court decides -- as is generally expected --
that the treaty conforms with the Czech constitution, the
action would return to the Czech parliament. Any negative
verdict, however, would be much more problematic and time
consuming for the GOCR, since amending the Czech constitution
would be next to impossible in the current highly charged
political environment.


6. (SBU) The June 12 Irish referendum "No" vote has both
helped and hurt Topolanek. It has drawn attention from Czech
ratification hurdles and provided Czech PM Topolanek with
some badly needed space on the international scene. However,
the Irish "No" has also complicated Topolanek's domestic
political calculus, providing new wind for the ODS
euroskeptics' sails. Topolanek can no longer argue that the
Czech Republic must avoid being the only outlier on the
Lisbon Treaty.

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Horse Trading on Treaties? Missile Defense for Lisbon
--------------

7. (SBU) The notion of a bargain in which ODS votes for the
Lisbon treaty are exchanged for some limited opposition CSSD
support for missile defense, has been kicked around by
politicians and commentators for several months. Topolanek
recently linked Lisbon and MD in his public statements, which
generated a harsh response from the opposition. Members of
Topolanek's cabinet, including DPM Alexandr Vondra and FM
Karel Schwarzenberg, have since backpedaled, indicating that
the Czech government would act responsibly vis-a-vis the
Lisbon Treaty. Topolanek would have a hard time striking
such a deal with the opposition CSSD, given that there would
be little political benefit for CSSD. Former Finance
Minister Bohuslav Sobotka, Deputy CSSD Chairman and Chairman
of the Budget Committee, recently confirmed to emboff that
CSSD is prepared to vote for the Lisbon Treaty, but a vote
for MD would harm CSSD's political prospects. While a deal
with CSSD may not be possible, Topolanek may be aiming a
"Lisbon treaty for MD deal" at his coalition partners,
especially the Greens who are strongly in favor of Lisbon,
but divided on MD.



8. (SBU) As a result of the Constitutional Court review, the
Irish "No," and domestic political realities, the timeline
for ratifying the Lisbon Treaty has slipped into the late
fall. The fall, however, is already packed, with Senate and
regional elections in October, a full legislative agenda, and
several potential flashpoints on the parliamentary horizon MD
included. In a July 15 meeting, PM Topolanek, President
Klaus, DPM Vondra and FM Schwarzenberg reportedly agreed the
government would press for a ratification vote "sometime
after the (Senate and regional) elections." This leaves the
GOCR with a very narrow window of opportunity since Topolanek
also is publicly pressing to conclude ratification prior to
the Czechs assuming the EU Presidency January 1.

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Comment: Strained Cooperation with French Expected, while
Heavy Hitters Likely to Deliver on Ratification
--------------

9. (SBU) The different attempts by the French to pressure the
Czechs on the Lisbon treaty, do not bode well for close
cooperation between these two Troika members over the next
five months. Indeed, we have seen signs of strain in the
public statements of the two countries' leaders, as well as
at the working level when the troika was hammering out its
18-month common program this spring. Czech officials noted to
Embassy personnel at that time that it had been much easier
for them to negotiate with the Swedes than the French.


10. (C) Comment Continued: Domestically Czech PM Topolanek
has demonstrated a remarkable capability to deliver on
previous key votes. When it comes to the Lisbon Treaty,
Topolanek fortunately also has on his side Deputy PM Alexandr
Vondra (ODS) and FM Karel Schwarzenberg (Green),two heavy
hitters who are both personally committed to making the Czech
EU Presidency a success. Since the Lisbon Treaty vote is
most uncertain in the Senate, having these two Senators
engaging their fellow Senators will be critical. Given the
timeline and events outlined above, however, the fight over
ratification is likely to slip into November or December -
traditionally the busiest time for the incoming EU Presidency
country. However, with Vondra at the helm of the Czech EU
Presidency preparations, Topolanek has both a trusted
political advisor as well as an organizational dynamo who --
we have every reason to expect -- will pull things together

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come January 1.
Thompson-Jones